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There's nothing "median" about a 40% team 3-point average over the first five games. That'd be top 12 in 2017 and top 40 so far in 2018. That's a damn good 3-point team.
It all comes down to whether you want to judge the returns from five games or one. I'll lean toward the rule and not the outlier.
No, five games doesn't guarantee that they'll stay at or above 40% elite range, but five is a big enough sample size to know that their average isn't going to fall more than a couple of percentage points. 38% is the floor, and even that would be top 50 in the nation. To think it's going to fall to the mediocre 34-35% of last year is laughable.
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Well, sure, if you just pick and choose the games you want to count them I'm sure you could end up with whatever percentage you want.
We shot 34.6% last year. I see no reason to think we won't be within a point or two of that this year.