Gophers 2024 Season Preview Using Sagarin 2023 Year-End Data

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btowngopher said:
If we can’t beat UNC or Iowa it’ll probably be a long year. Beating both at home doesn’t feels far from impossible.
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Starting 4-0 would be awesome.


Long haul from there, regardless. Would be great to snag three wins Maryland, ILL, and Rutgers.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Using year end data to try and predict the next season is pretty worthless, especially in this current transfer portal era where the roster churn is so extreme from year to year.

UNC won't have Maye, Maryland won't have Tua......lots of changes for the Gophers and everyone else on the schedule, some will improve others will get worse. Pointless to try and project anything before rosters are set after spring ball and even then you don't really know what a team is going to look like until the take the field in the fall.
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Taulia*

Alabama basically F’ed him out of a year of eligibility. I actually think he had a great case for a waiver for 24, and Nick Saban wrote personally to the NCAA to plead his case.

So of course, they denied it.


Then to add to the end of your post: and then even at that point you’re still just talking about projecting the entire season based on the state of all the teams at the start of the season.

That’s pretty egregious…
 

MplsGopher said:
Starting 4-0 would be awesome.


Long haul from there, regardless. Would be great to snag three wins Maryland, ILL, and Rutgers.
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If we went 4-0 to begin with, I would be shocked (barring injuries) to not go at least 2-1 against those three, but maybe UNC and Iowa end up being worse than those three as the season goes on, you never know.
 

Dang I wonder where this so called “genius” has Rutgers record wise.
I am pretty sure I will be celebrating a Gopher win at the Rose Bowl this year
 

WorkingMyTailOff said:
Dang I wonder where this so called “genius” has Rutgers record wise.
I am pretty sure I will be celebrating a Gopher win at the Rose Bowl this year
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Quick glance says 6-6 or 5-7; 2-1 non-con (loss to VA. Tech), 3 favored Big Ten wins (Minnesota, Illinois, @MSU) and a pick-'em game @Nebraska.

They are a fringe bowl team, an historical punching bag - and yet, per Sagarin, we're a 6-pt underdog on a neutral field.
 





If I were a betting man (which I am) I would be projecting 5-6 wins next year. What’s the O/U in Vegas now? Guessing 4.5? I’d take the over. I think they’ll win a game or two their not favored in.
 



gopherbadgerman said:
If I were a betting man (which I am) I would be projecting 5-6 wins next year. What’s the O/U in Vegas now? Guessing 4.5? I’d take the over. I think they’ll win a game or two their not favored in.
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My way too early guess is 6-6.
 

We had six wins last season with an absolute liability at quarterback for five of em and a guy with little experience for the other one. Next year might not be special, but it'll be an improvement barring injuries.
 

mngg11 said:
We had six wins last season with an absolute liability at quarterback for five of em and a guy with little experience for the other one. Next year might not be special, but it'll be an improvement barring injuries.
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West was historically bad even for West standards. Nothing in Gophers history indicates we should expect to get surprise wins but lots indicates we should expect to get surprise losses.

Still have to hope.
 

What impressed me was the fact that he had 2 yes 2 honorable mention all-conference LB.
 



SamSquatch said:
West was historically bad even for West standards. Nothing in Gophers history indicates we should expect to get surprise wins but lots indicates we should expect to get surprise losses.

Still have to hope.
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But are they still surprise losses even if we expect them?
 

Word said:
My way too early guess is 6-6.
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Really hard to know. If the defense and running back is healthy and the QB is top half of the big ten. 8

If 2 of those 3 things
6-7

If 1 of those 3 things
5

If 0 of those three things
4 or less


If all 3 of those things plus the defense taking a big step forward, could go 9-10.

If that happens and the QB is a heisman candidate, could go 11-12 😂
 

Some guy said:
Really hard to know. If the defense and running back is healthy and the QB is top half of the big ten. 8

If 2 of those 3 things
6-7

If 1 of those 3 things
5

If 0 of those three things
4 or less


If all 3 of those things plus the defense taking a big step forward, could go 9-10.

If that happens and the QB is a heisman candidate, could go 11-12 😂
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Go with 9.

Which ones?

Humor us
 

Best case to me is:

Start 4-0
Go 3-0 vs Maryland Illinois Rutgers
Find a way to win in Madison


So I guess I’m spotting you 8, and you just have to pick one more.

Then it’s probably UCLA at the Rose Bowl. I suppose it depends if Chip Kelly goes to the NFL.
 

MplsGopher said:
Best case to me is:

Start 4-0
Go 3-0 vs Maryland Illinois Rutgers
Find a way to win in Madison


So I guess I’m spotting you 8, and you just have to pick one more.

Then it’s probably UCLA at the Rose Bowl. I suppose it depends if Chip Kelly goes to the NFL.
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I like your take, but PJ is going to have to get help from a darn good sports psychologist before we beat a Bielema-led Illinois squad.
 

MplsGopher said:
Go with 9.

Which ones?

Humor us
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I think I would probably pick them for 6-7 wins.
But if QB is a top half QB, defense steps back to 2021-22 levels
And everyone stays healthy


Nevada 2-10
Rhode Island FCS
North Carolina 8-5 and replacing a ton
USC 8-5 and replacing a ton
UCLA 8-5 and replacing a ton (and possibly their coach)
Maryland 8-5 and replacing the QB
Illinois 5-7 and will probably be a close game regardless
Rutgers 7-6 and will probably be a close game regardless
Wisconsin 7-6 and will probably be a close game regardless
Iowa - beat Iowa last year

All winnable games with a top 50 QB, a top 30 defense, and a healthy Running back room.
 

Some guy said:
I think I would probably pick them for 6-7 wins.
But if QB is a top half QB, defense steps back to 2021-22 levels
And everyone stays healthy


Nevada 2-10
Rhode Island FCS
North Carolina 8-5 and replacing a ton
USC 8-5 and replacing a ton
UCLA 8-5 and replacing a ton (and possibly their coach)
Maryland 8-5 and replacing the QB
Illinois 5-7 and will probably be a close game regardless
Rutgers 7-6 and will probably be a close game regardless
Wisconsin 7-6 and will probably be a close game regardless
Iowa - beat Iowa last year

All winnable games with a top 50 QB, a top 30 defense, and a healthy Running back room.
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USC :oops:

I mean isn’t Michigan losing a lot too, then? Portal?
 
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MplsGopher said:
USC :oops:

I mean isn’t Michigan losing a lot too, then? Portal?


Not Rutgers??
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Not understanding what you’re asking here.
Yeah. If this team has a top 50 QB, top 30 defense, and stays healthy they will have a chance to win any game on the schedule. But I would say the 10 I listed are more likely than Penn state and Michigan.

Sorry you’re so afraid of a mediocre USC team
 



captain Obvious checking in.

if Sagarin - or any predictive method - was 100% accurate, Vegas would go out of business because every bettor would win every bet. (unless they were really dumb or really loyal to their team)

the random aspect of sports is what keeps us watching. the possibility - or just the hope - of an upset.

and then there is the injury factor.

If you could tell me which players will be available - or which players will not be available - for a game in week #7 or #8, then you would have my attention.

which is a long-winded way of saying - there is some stuff you just can't predict.
 

MplsGopher said:
USC is the same thing as Mich, Ohio St, Penn St.
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First of all, penn state isn’t Ohio state and Michigan

Second of all, USC isn’t Penn state

Third of all gophers 2-2 vs penn state since 2011

Fourth of all, Penn state is closer to being Oklahoma state than Ohio state or Michigan.


Fifth of all in the CFP era USC ke closer to the amount of wins of wake forest and Virginia tech than they are to Ohio State and Michigan. And behind Iowa.

6th of all, you’re right just shut it down and don’t even play the games 😂


Since 2014
Ohio state 115-15 - 1 national title
Michigan 94- 32 - 1 national title
Oklahoma State 89-41
Penn state 88- 39
USC 79-45

Since 2021
Michigan 40-3 - 1 national title
Ohio state 40-7
Penn State 28-11
Oklahoma State 29-12
USC 23-16
 
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dpodoll68 said:
Obviously a lot will change between now and August 29, but as of now, using Sagarin's 2023 year-end data (https://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm), here is how the Gophers 2024 season is shaping up:

Game Date Opponent Line
1 August 29 North Carolina +6
2 September 7 Rhode Island -21.5
3 September 14 Nevada -19
4 September 21 Iowa +5
5 September 28 @Michigan +32.5
6 October 5 USC +11.5
7 October 12 @UCLA +13.5
8 October 26 Maryland +8.5
9 November 2 @Illinois +3.5
10 November 9 @Rutgers +8
11 November 23 Penn St. +21.5
12 November 30 @wisconsin +10

Predicted Record: 2-10 (0-9)

Likely Blowout Wins (21-pt spread+) : 1 (Rhode Island)
Likely Comfortable Wins (10-21 pt spread) : 1 (Nevada)
Toss-Ups (single-digit underdogs) : 5 (@Illinois, Iowa, North Carolina, @Rutgers, Maryland)
Likely Comfortable Losses (10-21 pt spread) : 3 (@wisconsin, USC, @UCLA)
Likely Blowout Losses (21-pt spread+) : 2 (Penn St., @Michigan)

Notes:
  • The Gophers are underdogs in every conference game.
  • The Gophers have zero toss-up games (generously defined as single-digit spread) in which they are favorites.
  • Assuming the blowout/likely wins and losses go the way they are predicted, the Gophers will have to go 4-1 in toss-up games just to guarantee a bowl appearance.
As I stated in a previous thread, and was destroyed for, barring some massive changes between now and August 29, the Gophers will be very lucky to make a bowl game.
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No offense, but the basketball team is now 14-7. Those numbers might have been close to being reversed in a preseason projection of the first 21 games of this season if 2023 data had been used for all teams in that projection.

Next year obviously is a tough schedule for the football team but I definitely think the team will be better than they were in 2023. I can't see them being worse.
 

Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:
USC is pretty close to Penn State I would say, but they haven't been in the same class as Mich and OSU since Pete Carroll was the coach.
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I'm talking about the here and now: College NIL-ball.

USC is the same thing as Mich, OSU, and Penn State. IE, the biggest, richest, willing to pay the most to do whatever it takes to win a natty, programs in the Big Ten.

I guess Nebraska "should be" in that statement as well, but I think they've fallen off too much.

Maybe Oregon is there too.
 



Whoopty doo.

Can cherry pick 2008-2014 Michigan, too. Meaningless.

Talking here and now and going forward in College NIL-ball.
 

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