Final Field of 68 Snapshot: Max of 4 At-Large Bids Still Available As Bid-Stealers Still Lurk

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SelectionSunday

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UPDATED THROUGH: Friday, March 11 games
Here's a breakdown of how I view the Field of 68 and (potential) bubble teams as we're oh so close to Selection Sunday. Saturday opponents for non-"At-Large Locks" are noted in parentheses. ALL CAPS bold indicates already earned automatic bid.

Please note, I've dropped Rutgers and Wyoming from "lock" status to the bubble after their respective losses Friday, in part due to the preponderance of potential bid-stealers still playing in various conference tournaments. In addition, North Texas, VCU, and Wake Forest are no longer under consideration for the field.

I'll be back with my final Field of 68 projection late Saturday night/early Selection Sunday morning ahead of the final projections of Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi, who typically announce their final selections Sunday afternoon.

AVAILABLE AT-LARGE BIDS: 4
TEAMS STILL UNDER CONSIDERATION: 8
ELEVATED TO LOCK STATUS ON FRIDAY: Indiana, Michigan, Virginia Tech

AUTOMATIC BIDS/AUTO BID PLACEHOLDERS (highest remaining seed) (32)
America East #1 Vermont
American: #1 Houston
ACC: #1 Duke
ASUN: #1 JACKSONVILLE STATE (courtesy of Bellarmine)
Atlantic 10: #1 Davidson
Big East: #2 Villanova
Big Sky: #1 Montana State
Big South: #1 LONGWOOD
Big Ten: #3 Purdue
Big XII: #1 Kansas
Big West: #1 Long Beach
Colonial: #5 DELAWARE
Conference USA: #3 UAB
Horizon: #4 WRIGHT
Ivy: #1 Princeton
MAAC: #2 Saint Peter's
MAC: #2 Kent
MEAC: #1 Norfolk
Missouri Valley: #4 LOYOLA-CHICAGO
Mountain West: #1 Boise
NEC: #1 BRYANT
OVC: #1 MURRAY
Pac 12: #1 Arizona
Patriot: #1 COLGATE
SEC: #2 Tennessee
SoCon: #1 CHATTANOOGA
Southland: #2 Southeastern Louisiana
SWAC: #1 Alcorn
Summit: #1 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Sun Belt: #3 GEORGIA STATE
WCC: #1 GONZAGA
WAC: #1 New Mexico State

AT-LARGE LOCKS (32)
1 Alabama
2 Arkansas
3 Auburn
4 Baylor
5 Colorado State
6 Creighton
7 Illinois
8 Indiana
9 Iowa
10 Iowa State
11 Kentucky
12 LSU
13 Marquette
14 Memphis
15 Miami-Florida
16 Michigan
17 Michigan State
18 North Carolina
19 Ohio State
20 Providence
21 Saint Mary's
22 San Diego State
23 San Francisco
24 Seton Hall
25 Texas
26 TCU
27 Texas Tech
28 UCLA
29 UConn
30 USC
31 Virginia Tech
32 Wisconsin

ON THE BUBBLE (8)
1 Dayton (Atlantic Ten semifinals vs. vs. Richmond)
2 Notre Dame (21-10) -- season complete
3 Oklahoma (18-15) -- season complete
4 Rutgers (18-13) -- season complete
5 SMU (American semifinals vs. Memphis)
6 Texas A&M (SEC semifinals vs. Arkansas)
7 Wyoming (24-8) -- season complete
8 Xavier (18-13) -- season complete

NO LONGER UNDER CONSIDERATION (6)
1 BYU (20-10)
2 Florida (19-13)
3 North Texas (22-6)
4 Virginia (19-13)
5 VCU (21-9)
6 Wake Forest (23-9)
 
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Ken/SOS/Haslam ranks

53/126/40 Dayton
40/45/23 Indiana
46/15/55 Iowa St (I don't think they're necessarily in have been mostly awful last two months)
33/5/27 Michigan (17-14)
48/139/66 North Texas (22-6)
54/67/60 Notre Dame (21-10)
30/3/28 Oklahoma (18-15)
75/42/59 Rutgers (18-13)
52/107/41 SMU (American semifinals vs. Memphis)
51/57/61 Texas A&M (22-11)
25/70/25 Virginia Tech (ACC championship game vs. Duke)
58/89/71 Wyoming (24-8)
60/36/49 Xavier (18-13)
 

Calling it 8 spots to rank. A&M having shot to still win way in, don't see SMU beating Memphis for third time

In 64
Indiana, Oklahoma, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Iowa St

Play in games
Notre Dame (saved by Kentucky win), SMU, Dayton, Rutgers

Out
Texas A&M, North Texas (shame they lost today with their slowest tempo would have been fun game), Wyoming (they're NIT bubble caliber no clue how they're on Lunardi Palm etc lists) , Xavier
 

I was looking at blind resumes of Michigan, Indiana, VCU and I can’t for the life of me figure out why VCU is the clear #3 in that group of 3

what is the metric that puts Michigan and Indiana above them?
 

rowdaboat said:
Calling it 8 spots to rank. A&M having shot to still win way in, don't see SMU beating Memphis for third time

In 64
Indiana, Oklahoma, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Iowa St

Play in games
Notre Dame (saved by Kentucky win), SMU, Dayton, Rutgers

Out
Texas A&M, North Texas (shame they lost today with their slowest tempo would have been fun game), Wyoming (they're NIT bubble caliber no clue how they're on Lunardi Palm etc lists) , Xavier
Click to expand...
 


Above is the final snapshot before I post my final Field of 68 projection late tonight/early Selection Sunday morning. Thanks for playing along!
 

SelectionSunday said:
Above is the final snapshot before I post my final Field of 68 projection late tonight/early Selection Sunday morning. Thanks for playing along!
Click to expand...
Thanks for doing this, Hodger. Always look at yours more closely than the pros.
Are your 32 at larges all or are the still under consideration competing for a few bubble spots. Do you understand what I’m saying? Basically I think Rutgers should be in and wonder about Michigan.
 

Holy Man said:
Thanks for doing this, Hodger. Always look at yours more closely than the pros.
Are your 32 at larges all or are the still under consideration competing for a few bubble spots. Do you understand what I’m saying? Basically I think Rutgers should be in and wonder about Michigan.
Click to expand...
Thanks Holy Man, I appreciate it.

The 8 listed "On the Bubble" are in play for the final 4 at-large bids. That number could shrink if we have bid-stealers.

I locked in Michigan & Indiana this morning, not without some trepidation. Rutgers still in the mix, but looking at the whole picture and going with my gut I think if the committee leaves out one of the Big Ten teams it's going to be Rutgers despite all the great wins (mostly at home). I don't think they'll take all 9.

Hope all is well. Are you in Indy? I'm not, but just made decision to go to Chicago in 2023.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Thanks Holy Man, I appreciate it.

The 8 listed "On the Bubble" are in play for the final 4 at-large bids. That number could shrink if we have bid-stealers.

I locked in Michigan & Indiana this morning, not without some trepidation. Rutgers still in the mix, but looking at the whole picture and going with my gut I think if the committee leaves out one of the Big Ten teams it's going to be Rutgers despite all the great wins (mostly at home). I don't think they'll take all 9.

Hope all is well. Are you in Indy? I'm not, but just made decision to go to Chicago in 2023.
Click to expand...
Yes. In Indy and despite losing on Weakling Wednesday has been great. Demons from 2020 have been exorcised. City super welcoming. Part of me is cheering for an IU Purdue final just to see what it does to ticket prices on Sunday. We’re lower bowl on the end in row 3 with a little basket obstruction. I think pretty good seats. Lower bowl center court today looks like $500 a piece on Stubhub.
 



Some guy said:
I was looking at blind resumes of Michigan, Indiana, VCU and I can’t for the life of me figure out why VCU is the clear #3 in that group of 3

what is the metric that puts Michigan and Indiana above them?
Click to expand...

Big Ten factor !!
 

Holy Man said:
Yes. In Indy and despite losing on Weakling Wednesday has been great. Demons from 2020 have been exorcised. City super welcoming. Part of me is cheering for an IU Purdue final just to see what it does to ticket prices on Sunday. We’re lower bowl on the end in row 3 with a little basket obstruction. I think pretty good seats. Lower bowl center court today looks like $500 a piece on Stubhub.
Click to expand...

Why would you bug from stub ?
Go to arena an buy them , plenty available at face value.
 

Lion King said:
Why would you bug from stub ?
Go to arena an buy them , plenty available at face value.
Click to expand...
Electronic tickets only complicate matters. I have the tickets. I’m not looking to buy. Not thrilled about giving email and cell number to street vendors.
 

Some guy said:
I was looking at blind resumes of Michigan, Indiana, VCU and I can’t for the life of me figure out why VCU is the clear #3 in that group of 3

what is the metric that puts Michigan and Indiana above them?
Click to expand...
Strength of schedule
 



Some guy said:
I was looking at blind resumes of Michigan, Indiana, VCU and I can’t for the life of me figure out why VCU is the clear #3 in that group of 3

what is the metric that puts Michigan and Indiana above them?
Click to expand...
Still need to update my projections, but I think a lot of the difference is in high end wins.

here are blind resumes of the best wins (using NET rankings) for each team:

Team A has wins over #13, #14, #24, #26, #36, and #38.

Team B has wins over #13, #15, #26, and #34.

Team C has wins over #43, #54, and #66.

So, Team A has 6 wins better than Team C’s best win. And Team B has 4 wins better than Team C’s best win.

Team A = Michigan
Team B = Indiana
Team C = VCU
 

bizzle22 said:
Still need to update my projections, but I think a lot of the difference is in high end wins.

here are blind resumes of the best wins (using NET rankings) for each team:

Team A has wins over #13, #14, #24, #26, #36, and #38.

Team B has wins over #13, #15, #26, and #34.

Team C has wins over #43, #54, and #66.

So, Team A has 6 wins better than Team C’s best win. And Team B has 4 wins better than Team C’s best win.

Team A = Michigan
Team B = Indiana
Team C = VCU
Click to expand...
I only looked at quad wins
That makes sense
 

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