Final Field of 68 Projection: Michigan State among last 4 in, but far from a sure thing

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SelectionSunday

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ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN – Without further ado, the final Field of 68 projection for the 2023-24 college basketball season. I’m going to list the 68 teams differently this year, separating them into the automatic qualifiers (32) and the 36 at-large selections.

There are 5 conference championship games on Sunday, so I will list those here and update the winners before the final selections are revealed at 5 p.m. on the CBS Selection Show.

Please note, I am trying to match what I think the Selection Committee will do. This was far and away in at least the last 10 years the most difficult time I had selecting the final 5-6 at-larges. I’m hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. If I get 34 of the 36 correct, I'll be happier than a pig in slop!

Sunday conference championship games are noted in bold.

FINAL FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (March 17, 9:58 a.m.)
Automatic Qualifiers (32)
America East: Vermont (102)
American: UAB (105)
ACC: North Carolina State (63)
ASUN: Stetson (209)
Atlantic 10: Duquesne (83)
Big East: UConn (2)
Big Sky: Montana State (208)
Big South: Longwood (162)
Big Ten: Illinois (15)
Big XII: Iowa State (6)
Big West: Long Beach State (170)
Colonial: College of Charleston (97)
Conference USA: Western Kentucky (136)
Horizon: Oakland (126)
Ivy: Yale (81)
MAAC: Saint Peter’s (189)
MAC: Akron (108)
MEAC: Howard (273)
Missouri Valley: Drake (47)
Mountain West: New Mexico (22)
NEC: Wagner (290)
OVC: Morehead State (106)
Pac 12: Oregon (59)
Patriot: Colgate (125)
SEC: Auburn (5)
SoCon: Samford (74)
Southland: McNeese (56)
SWAC: Grambling (279)
Summit: South Dakota State (135)
Sun Belt: James Madison (52)
WCC: Saint Mary’s (16)
WAC: Grand Canyon (50)

At-Large Selections (36)
American (1): FAU (39)

ACC (4): North Carolina (8), Duke (10), Clemson (35), Virginia (54)

Atlantic 10 (1): Dayton (23)

Big East (3): Creighton (11), Marquette (13), Providence (57)

Big Ten (5): Purdue (3), Wisconsin (18), Michigan State (24), Nebraska (33), Northwestern (53)

Big XII (7): Houston (1), BYU (12), Baylor (14), Kansas (20), Texas Tech (28), Texas (30), TCU (42)

Mountain West (5): San Diego State (21), Boise State (27), Nevada (34), Colorado State (36), Utah State (38)

Pac 12 (2): Arizona (4), Washington State (44)

SEC (7): Tennessee (7), Alabama (9), Kentucky (19), Florida (26), Mississippi State (31), Texas A&M (45), South Carolina (51)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (17)
_____________________
Last 4 In: Colorado State, Michigan State, Virginia, (last team in) Providence

First 4 Out: (first team out) Colorado (25), Seton Hall (67), Indiana State (29), Saint John’s (32)

Next 4 Out: Pitt (40), Oklahoma (46), Ohio State (49), Kansas State (71)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (8): Gonzaga (17), San Diego State (21), Dayton (23), Boise State (27), Nevada (34), Colorado State (36), FAU (39), Utah State (38)

Best 2 Wins for Last 4 In/First 4 Out/Next 4 Out
Last 4 In
Colorado State – vs. Creighton, San Diego State
Michigan State – vs. Baylor, Illinois
Virginia – vs. Florida, @ Clemson
Providence – vs. Creighton, Creighton

First 4 Out
Colorado – vs. Washington State, Washington State
Seton Hall – UConn, Marquette
Indiana State – Drake, @ Bradley
Saint John’s – Creighton, @ Villanova

Next 4 Out
Oklahoma – Iowa State, BYU
Pitt -- @ Duke, vs. Wake Forest
Ohio State – Purdue, vs. Alabama
Kansas State – Iowa State, BYU

Multiple-Bid Conferences: Big XII (8), SEC (8), Big Ten (6), Mountain West (6), ACC (5), Big East (4), Pac 12 (3), American (2), Atlantic 10 (2), WCC (2)

Bracket Notes
Though there is a lot of nuance and "gut feeling" that goes with my final selections, it's mostly about the numbers. I emphasize 8 criteria to select the at-large teams. In large part I mirror the criteria used by the Selection Committee:

1 Quad 1 wins and winning percentage
2 Combined Quads 1 & 2 wins and winning percentage
3 Combined Quads 3 & 4 winning percentage
4 True road game winning percentage
5 Non-conference strength of schedule
6 Strength of record (resume)/Ken Pom (predictive) average
7 Wins vs. the NET top 50 (emphasizing road/neutral)
8 "Record vs. the Projected Field" (this I where I often turn when crunch time for bubble selection)

With that backdrop, "Cliffs Notes" scribblings on what swayed me to select or leave out teams finishing near my bubble cutline. ...

Last 4 In
Colorado State (6-8 vs. the field) -- The Rams are the strongest of my last 4 in. They led my final 12 bubble teams with 6 Quad 1 wins (6-7). The most important one was a neutral-court demolition of Creighton.

Michigan State (4-10 vs. the field) -- MSU squeaks in on the strength of its predictive metrics (#19 KenPom) and #44 non-conference SOS ranking (best among my bubble teams). Wins over Baylor, Indiana State, and Butler and playing (though losing) the likes of Arizona and Duke in the non-conference paid dividends. Without a win over Illinois in early February, the Spartans aren't in the field. (but they still might not be)

Virginia (4-5 vs. the field) -- The Cavaliers played a lot of ugly basketball including 5 ACC blowout losses of 15 points or more (Notre Dame, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Duke), but I swallowed hard and begrudgingly slid them into the field. The 'Hoos #30 SOR was best among my bubble teams, and they were 10-10 vs. Quads 1/2 and had no bad losses (vs. Quads 3/4).

Providence (5-5 vs. the field) is the last team in my field. It was extremely difficult deciphering among the Big East's 4 bubble teams (Saint John's, Seton Hall, Villanova) which was the strongest, but I landed on the Friars. Despite losing stud Bryce Hopkins to an early January season ending injury, the Friars proved they could beat good teams without him with a pair of wins over Creighton, as well as wins over Seton Hall and Saint John's. The Friars finished 6-9 vs. Quad 1 (tied for the most Quad 1 wins among bubble teams) and had no bad losses.

First 4 Out
Colorado (5-5 vs. the field) is my first team out. The Buffaloes pass the eye test, but I think their numbers will leave them a little short. They have a bubble-best 26.5 SOR/KenPom average and no bad losses, but there are no non-conference wins of any consequence.

Seton Hall (5-6 vs. the field) was the team I had the most difficulty leaving out. I love this team's grit and 5-8 mark vs. Quad 1 opponents, but their SOR/KenPom average of 49 was worst among my bubble teams. The Pirates also lost their last 5 games vs. teams I have projected into the field.

Indiana State (1-4 vs. the field). I had the Sycamores in the field until 3 Saturday bid-stealers (Temple/NC State/Oregon) shrunk the field. I thought their resume as the regular-season champion of the Missouri Valley, #39 SOR ranking, and 9-4 true road record was solid enough (5-5 vs. Quads 1/2) to warrant an "outside the box" at-large selection, but fate dealt the Sycamores a bad hand. I really want(ed) this team in the field.

Saint John's (2-8 vs. the field). The bottom line is the Johnnies pass the eye test right now, but their numbers don't deserve selection. They're 10-12 vs. Quads 1/2, solid, but a bad non-conference loss to Michigan (at home) and whiffing on opportunites vs. Dayton and Boston College are hard to ignore. In addition, the Johnnies were 1-6 vs. the top 3 teams in the Big East (UConn, Marquette, Creighton). All that said, I have a nagging feeling we'll hear SJU's name called on the Selection Show.
__________________
Lastly, I conclude with the annual report of my record projecting the at-larges since the 1991-92 season, which includes how I'm doing vs. Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi.

Projecting the At-Large Qualifiers (1991-92 through 2022-23)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 (perfect)
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 (perfect)
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 (perfect)
2014-15: 33/36
2015-16: 32/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 33/36
2018-19: 34/36
2019-20: Coronavirus-2020
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 34/36
2022-23: 34/36
TOTALS: 1022/1082 (94.5%)
Buzz King Since Field Expanded to 68: 415/436 (95.2%)

Jerry Palm Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 35/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 35/36
2015-16: 34/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 35/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 35/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
TOTALS: 421/436 (96.6%)

Joe Lunardi Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 34/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 37/37 (perfect)
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 34/36
2015-16: 33/36
2016-17: 35/36
2017-18: 34/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
TOTALS: 419/436 (96.1%)

Worst 5 At-Large NET Rank Since 2019 Switch to NET Rankings
#77 Rutgers (2022) – lost in First Four
#73 Saint John’s (2019) – lost in First Four
#72 Wichita (2021) – lost in First Four
#70 Michigan State (2021) – lost in First Four
#67 Pitt (2023) – lost in 2nd round
 
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Love your work as always. Not sure if Virginia makes it. I'm curious how they seed teams this year. Lunardi has these teams as 4's: Kansas, Duke, Alabama, Kentucky. Those appear to be very vulnerable IMO. If you are a 13 or a 5, one would have to like the options.
 

Quick review moral of the story: If you’re near the cut line, it would be best to get a quality win out of conference. Colorado, Indiana State could have used a better win or two in preseason play.

I know Michigan State is on the edge, but would shock me to see them left out for all the reputation, insider, and borderline conspiracies that float in the back of all of our minds.

I’m most surprised about Virginia getting in and I’ll just hope Indiana State can sneak in ahead of them.

Great job as always in a really difficult year.
 

I was rooting for chaos yesterday in the hopes of Michigan St and Virginia being left out. Don't think I'll get my wish.
 

TCU is an interesting one as well. I think they get in, but they only have 3 wins over teams in your field and a ton of losses. That is the exact type of team I think should be sent to the NIT. They have had a ton of chances to show they belong and failed over and over again. Let me see an Indiana St face off against a power conference school.
 



Holy Man said:
Quick review moral of the story: If you’re near the cut line, it would be best to get a quality win out of conference. Colorado, Indiana State could have used a better win or two in preseason play.

I know Michigan State is on the edge, but would shock me to see them left out for all the reputation, insider, and borderline conspiracies that float in the back of all of our minds.

I’m most surprised about Virginia getting in and I’ll just hope Indiana State can sneak in ahead of them.

Great job as always in a really difficult year.
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I agree with Indiana State!!! I think with all of the auto bids coming to non tourney teams, i.e. NC State, UAB/Temple winner, their chances are now slim to none.
 








It would be interesting to see if the committee somehow gives FAU the boot with their 2 Quad 4 losses after the upset to Temple keeping them from AQ status. Ultimately I also agree that Colorado is probably in over Providence. I was lobbying hard for Indiana State, but certainly no longer confident. Happy to see you have Oklahoma out (unlike Lunardi). That’s his “Providence/flyer” if you ask me. Great work as always! I’m still rooting for Indiana State today, but kind of think they find a way to put St John’s in as well.
 





SelectionSunday said:
I missed 1.

My last team in (Providence) did not make it. My first team out (Colorado) did make it.

Pleased to miss only 1.

Jerry Palm missed 2, Joe Lunardi missed 1. Virginia was the team I had that neither Palm or Lunardi picked.
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Well done in a super hard year. I think both you and the committee are wrong about Virginia. 😂
 


Someone was inquiring how I did on my preseason Field of 68 projection. I found my initial projection for this season. 39 of the 68 teams made yesterday's field.

Field of 68 Projection: Only 43 Days Until It All Starts to Unfold

MIGHTY WILDCATS, U.S.A. -- To help Gopher fans get their minds off last night's gut-punch football loss to the mighty Northwestern Wildcats, let's peak forward (again) to the 2023-24 college basketball season. It's only 43 days until Gopher basketball undoubtedly takes all of our angst away...
gopherhole.com gopherhole.com
 

SelectionSunday said:
Someone was inquiring how I did on my preseason Field of 68 projection. I found my initial projection for this season. 39 of the 68 teams made yesterday's field.

Field of 68 Projection: Only 43 Days Until It All Starts to Unfold

MIGHTY WILDCATS, U.S.A. -- To help Gopher fans get their minds off last night's gut-punch football loss to the mighty Northwestern Wildcats, let's peak forward (again) to the 2023-24 college basketball season. It's only 43 days until Gopher basketball undoubtedly takes all of our angst away...
gopherhole.com gopherhole.com
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Good call on Colgate.

4 of your 7 were correct on the Big 10: Purdue, Illinois, Michigan St & Wisconsin.

Missed on Maryland, Ohio St & Rutgers who were OUT instead of Northwestern & Nebraska, IN.

I guess in hindsight, sleeping on Northwestern with Boo Buie would be a regret. Hugh Downs.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I missed 1.

My last team in (Providence) did not make it. My first team out (Colorado) did make it.

Pleased to miss only 1.

Jerry Palm missed 2, Joe Lunardi missed 1. Virginia was the team I had that neither Palm or Lunardi picked.
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Do you have on file how many times a P6 team stole bid from an At Large team by winning their Conference Tournament when they otherwise would have been left out like Oregon and NC State this year?

I know Georgia did it when the dome collapsed in Atlanta, whatever year that was. 2008, I think.
 

Ope3 said:
Do you have on file how many times a P6 team stole bid from an At Large team by winning their Conference Tournament when they otherwise would have been left out like Oregon and NC State this year?

I know Georgia did it when the dome collapsed in Atlanta, whatever year that was. 2008, I think.
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I think Mississippi State did it back in the day.
 

Ope3 said:
Do you have on file how many times a P6 team stole bid from an At Large team by winning their Conference Tournament when they otherwise would have been left out like Oregon and NC State this year?
Click to expand...

Quite possibly Virginia Tech may have done it when they won the ACC tournament in 2022. During the selection show, one of the guys mentioned that, given their seed (#11), they likely would not have made the NCAA tournament had they not won the ACC tournament. Also, two teams ahead of them in the ACC standings didn't make the NCAA tournament. Wake Forest was 25-10 and 13-7 in the conference and didn't make it.

They lost their first tournament game to Texas (with Marcus Carr).
 

Holy Man said:
I think Mississippi State did it back in the day.
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I know Iowa was absolutely Out prior to the 2001 Big 10 Tournament. Not sure if they were In at dawn on Selection Sunday.

That was the Luke Recker & Reggie Evans show under Steve Alford.
 

Ope3 said:
Do you have on file how many times a P6 team stole bid from an At Large team by winning their Conference Tournament when they otherwise would have been left out like Oregon and NC State this year?

I know Georgia did it when the dome collapsed in Atlanta, whatever year that was. 2008, I think.
Click to expand...

Syracuse in 2006, I think would fall into this. IIRC, their first game was dubbed "loser is out" GMac hit that buzzer beater to save them, they then went on to win the BE tournament. That was when the committee placed a lot more emphasis on conference tournament results.

Oregon State in 2021 was another one. As @TwistingMyMelon mentioned above VT was probably another as I don't think they would have gotten in. Washington in 2010 was most likely out until winning the P12 title. Colorado in 2012 probably the same thing. I'd also say Oregon in 2019. And then UGA in 2008 is probably the most extreme example.
 

Gophers7633 said:
Syracuse in 2006, I think would fall into this. IIRC, their first game was dubbed "loser is out" GMac hit that buzzer beater to save them, they then went on to win the BE tournament. That was when the committee placed a lot more emphasis on conference tournament results.

Oregon State in 2021 was another one. As @TwistingMyMelon mentioned above VT was probably another as I don't think they would have gotten in. Washington in 2010 was most likely out until winning the P12 title. Colorado in 2012 probably the same thing. I'd also say Oregon in 2019. And then UGA in 2008 is probably the most extreme example.
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To clarify, the teams I was asking SS about are the ones that even heading into the Conference Championship Game, had to win that or go home. So Syracuse by the Big East Title game in 2006 had likely worked their way in.

Thanks for responding though, I think the others do fit scenario. Good calls.
 
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Ope3 said:
To be clarify, the teams I was asking SS about are the ones that even heading into the Conference Championship Game, had to win that or go home. So Syracuse by the Big East Title game in 2006 had likely worked their way in.

Thanks for responding though, I think the others do fit scenario. Good calls.
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Did the UConn Kemba Walker five wins in five nights Big East count? Not sure if they had become a lock before championship game or not but it still is one of the most amazing runs in any sport ever.
 

Holy Man said:
Did the UConn Kemba Walker five wins in five nights Big East count? Not sure if they had become a lock before championship game or not but it still is one of the most amazing runs in any sport ever.
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2011 UConn was actually a lock heading into that Big East Tournament. They were ranked #21, 9-9 in a loaded conference but also had won the Maui Invitational with wins over Mich St & Kentucky.

It was a phenomenal run to win it all.

I actually looked that one up earlier after NC State did the 5 game run to the ACC this weekend.
 




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