Final Field of 68 Projection: Last Team In Syracuse Must Sit And Wait Sunday, Hope For Houston Win

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SelectionSunday

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We’ve finally reached Selection Sunday, which means it’s time for my final Field of 68 projection for the 2020-21 college basketball season. Every year I like to release my final projection before Bracketologists like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm release theirs, usually sometime shortly before the bracket is announced at 5 p.m. CT.

FIELD OF 68 CONTINGENCY: Because of that, sometimes my projection requires a contingency when a bid-stealer is playing on Sunday, after I release my final selections. That is the case this season in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) championship game, as potential bid-stealer Cincinnati plays tournament-lock Houston. To that end, I can tell you that Syracuse is my “last team in” the Field of 68. So if Cincinnati defeats Houston, the AAC automatic qualifier Bearcats would replace Syracuse in the field.

BRACKET NOTES
1 Easily, the biggest gamble in my field is Boise State. The Broncos struggled losing their last 4 games, 2 of those on the road at Mountain West regular season and tournament champion San Diego State. But the committee always says it’s about the entire body of work and not about how you start or how you finish. I simply liked the Broncos’ overall numbers and resume better when compared vs. other teams sitting on the bubble with them, including fellow Mountain West bubbler Colorado State, which I left out of the field. The Broncos were 3-3 vs. teams I projected into the field, including a sweep of Utah State (who I have in the field). Ultimately though, I think the game that gets Boise in the field is its road win @ BYU. I like quality non-conference road wins; they’re like gold.

2 I had a hard time leaving Colorado State out of the field, but it came down to I don’t think the Mountain West is getting all 4 of its best teams in. I think the number ends up at 3, and the Rams are the one most likely to get left out. A quality non-conference win like the one Boise State had (@ BYU) would have helped.

3 Despite Saturday bid-stealing by Georgetown and Oregon State, I’m keeping Drake (23-4) in the field. The Bulldogs are my second to last team in. The Bulldogs get in on the strength of their 6-2 record vs. Quads 1 & 2 combined that includes a win over Missouri Valley regular season and tournament champion Loyola. I also like how DU continued to play winning basketball after two of its best players went down with injuries. I think the Selection Committee saw that and will reward it.

4 The resumes of Power 6 conference teams like Ole Miss and Xavier did little for me. Ditto for home-court hero Syracuse (all its best wins came at the Carrier Dome), but I do have the Orangemen perilously clinging to the field as my last team in, hoping that Cincy doesn’t pull off that upset over Houston on Sunday. In a strange sort of way, I think bid-stealing Georgetown’s upset of Creighton helped ‘Cuse stay in the field, as it got them a fourth “win vs. the field”.

5 I know the committee has said it won’t punish teams who had lengthy COVID-19 pauses, but I found it hard not to. There just wasn’t enough data to pore over for bubble teams like Louisville (20 games), Saint Louis (20), Wichita State (19), and Xavier (21). It wasn’t intentional, but none of those 4 teams made my field.

NET rankings are noted in parentheses. So without further ado here’s my final Field of 68 projection. Thanks for humoring me and following along, and now let’s embrace the Madness!

FINAL 2020-21 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION
America East (1): HARTFORD (162)

American (1): HOUSTON (5)

ACC (7): Virginia (12), Florida State (25), North Carolina (32), GEORGIA TECH (34), Syracuse (40), Clemson (41), Virginia Tech (48)

ASUN (1): LIBERTY (86)

Atlantic 10 (2): SAINT BONAVENTURE (23), VCU (37)

Big East (4): Villanova (17), Creighton (26), UConn (30), GEORGETOWN (64)

Big Sky (1): EASTERN WASHINGTON (114)

Big South (1): WINTHROP (55)

Big Ten (9): ILLINOIS (3), Michigan (4), Iowa (6), Ohio State (8), Purdue (22), Wisconsin (27), Maryland (35), Rutgers (38), Michigan State (70)

Big XII (7): Baylor (2), Kansas (11), Texas Tech (16), TEXAS (21), West Virginia (24), Oklahoma State (29), Oklahoma (36)

Big West (1): UCSB (54)

Colonial (1): DREXEL (135)

Conference USA (1): NORTH TEXAS (59)

Horizon (1): CLEVELAND STATE (160)

MAAC (1): IONA (138)

MAC (1): OHIO (87)

MEAC (1): NORFOLK STATE (170)

Missouri Valley (2): LOYOLA-CHICAGO (10), Drake (45)

Mountain West (3): SAN DIEGO STATE (18), Utah State (39), Boise State (50)

NEC (1): MOUNT SAINT MARY’S (159)

OVC (1): MOREHEAD STATE (121)

Pac 12 (5): Colorado (15), USC (19), Oregon (33), UCLA (46), OREGON STATE (91)

Patriot (1): COLGATE (9)

SEC (6): ALABAMA (7), Tennessee (13), Arkansas (14), LSU (28), Florida (31), Missouri (47)

SoCon (1): UNC-GREENSBORO (84)

Southland (1): ABILENE CHRISTIAN (74)

SWAC (1): TEXAS SOUTHERN (208)

Summit (1): ORAL ROBERTS (158)

Sun Belt (1): APPALACHIAN STATE (210)

WCC (2): GONZAGA (1), BYU (20)

WAC (1): GRAND CANYON (107)
_____________________________

Last 4 In: UCLA (46), Boise State (50), Drake (45), (last team in) Syracuse (40)

First 4 Out: (first team out) Colorado State (51), Wichita State (72), Louisville (56), Ole Miss (53)

Others Considered for At-Large (6): Saint Louis (43), Memphis (52), Seton Hall (57), Xavier (61), Saint John’s (69), Western Kentucky (81)

Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: Hartford (162), Norfolk State (170), Texas Southern (208), Appalachian State (210)
______________________

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): BYU (20), VCU (37), Utah State (39), Drake (45), Boise State (50)

Power 6 Overall Bids Percentage (38 of 68): 55.9%

Non-Power 6 Overall Bids Percentage (30 of 68): 44.1%
_____________________________

My Preseason Final 4: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan State, Virginia

My Preseason Champion: Gonzaga (like my chances here)
__________________________

My Projecting At-Larges Percentage Since 1991-92 Season: 918 of 973 (94.3%)

My Projecting At-Larges Percentage Since Field Expanded to 68 Teams in 2010-11 Season: 311 of 327 (95.1%)

Number of Times Perfect (4): 2000-01, 2008-09, 2013-14, 2016-17
 
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Thanks Hodges. I wondered what Oregon State would do to the bubble.

I’ll suggest you are out on a limb with the virus shortened seasons. Good reasons to leave them out objectively but I think committee will put at least one in to avoid the look of punishment of teams who were responsible.

I know it’s not about conferences but I am also interested in how your competitors discern between Utah State and Colorado State. Both are all over the last in and first out lists.

Good luck! Hardest year ever with pandemic?
 

I have a friend who is a big Colorado St fan and I turned him on to your updates and he follows your updates more than any of the pros online!
 



Holy Man said:
Thanks Hodges. I wondered what Oregon State would do to the bubble.

I’ll suggest you are out on a limb with the virus shortened seasons. Good reasons to leave them out objectively but I think committee will put at least one in to avoid the look of punishment of teams who were responsible.

I know it’s not about conferences but I am also interested in how your competitors discern between Utah State and Colorado State. Both are all over the last in and first out lists.

Good luck! Hardest year ever with pandemic?
Click to expand...
Definitely a little harder with the pandemic, but not as much as I thought.

I think most of the "experts" like Lunardi, Palm, etc., will order the Mountain West at-large candidates this way: 1 Utah State, 2 Colorado State, 3 Boise State, and I understand that because of Boise's 4-game skid to end the season. I just flipped Colorado State & Boise State because of the Broncos' win @ BYU + they split with Colorado State on the road. I like Boise State slightly better than Colorado State because of that, and because the Broncos played a couple of tournament-caliber opponents (@ Houston, @ BYU) in their abbreviated non-conference schedule.
 

Just out of curiosity: how did the Gophers’ resume look compared to some of those teams in the Last Four In?

I’m assuming they beat some higher ranked opponents, but just didn’t have enough wins (and zero truly on the road).
 

GopherPharmaBiz said:
Just out of curiosity: how did the Gophers’ resume look compared to some of those teams in the Last Four In?

I’m assuming they beat some higher ranked opponents, but just didn’t have enough wins (and zero truly on the road).
Click to expand...
They certainly had more than enough top-shelf-wins, but I never really considered Gophers again after they lost the back to back games to Northwestern and Nebraska.
 

Pardon my dumb-ness, but just to confirm: this does not put Utah State in a play-in game, right?
 



Here are the differences I have with Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm.

Lunardi and I have 1 difference. Lunardi has Louisville in his Field of 68, in their place I have Boise State.

Palm and I have 3 differences. Palm has Colorado State, Wichita State, and Louisville in his Field of 68, in their place I have Utah State, Drake, and Boise State.

The contingency team that drops out of the field if Cincinnati beats Houston is noted in parentheses.

LAST 4 IN
Me
UCLA
Boise State
Drake
(Syracuse)

Lunardi
Syracuse
Louisville
Drake
(Utah State)

Palm
Wichita State
Syracuse
UCLA
(Colorado State)

FIRST 4 OUT
Me
Colorado State
Wichita State
Louisville
Ole Miss

Lunardi
Wichita State
Colorado State
Saint Louis
Ole Miss

Palm
Utah State
Drake
Saint Louis
Boise State

At-Large % Accuracy Since NCAA Tournament Field Expanded to 68 in 2010-11 Season
Palm: 316 of 327 (96.6%)
Lunardi: 313 of 327 (95.7%)
Me; 311 of 327 (95.1%)
 


SelectionSunday said:
We’ve finally reached Selection Sunday, which means it’s time for my final Field of 68 projection for the 2020-21 college basketball season. Every year I like to release my final projection before Bracketologists like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm release theirs, usually sometime shortly before the bracket is announced at 5 p.m. CT.

FIELD OF 68 CONTINGENCY: Because of that, sometimes my projection requires a contingency when a bid-stealer is playing on Sunday, after I release my final selections. That is the case this season in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) championship game, as potential bid-stealer Cincinnati plays tournament-lock Houston. To that end, I can tell you that Syracuse is my “last team in” the Field of 68. So if Cincinnati defeats Houston, the AAC automatic qualifier Bearcats would replace Syracuse in the field.

BRACKET NOTES
1 Easily, the biggest gamble in my field is Boise State. The Broncos struggled losing their last 4 games, 2 of those on the road at Mountain West regular season and tournament champion San Diego State. But the committee always says it’s about the entire body of work and not about how you start or how you finish. I simply liked the Broncos’ overall numbers and resume better when compared vs. other teams sitting on the bubble with them, including fellow Mountain West bubbler Colorado State, which I left out of the field. The Broncos were 3-3 vs. teams I projected into the field, including a sweep of Utah State (who I have in the field). Ultimately though, I think the game that gets Boise in the field is its road win @ BYU. I like quality non-conference road wins; they’re like gold.

2 I had a hard time leaving Colorado State out of the field, but it came down to I don’t think the Mountain West is getting all 4 of its best teams in. I think the number ends up at 3, and the Rams are the one most likely to get left out. A quality non-conference win like the one Boise State had (@ BYU) would have helped.

3 Despite Saturday bid-stealing by Georgetown and Oregon State, I’m keeping Drake (23-4) in the field. The Bulldogs are my second to last team in. The Bulldogs get in on the strength of their 6-2 record vs. Quads 1 & 2 combined that includes a win over Missouri Valley regular season and tournament champion Loyola. I also like how DU continued to play winning basketball after two of its best players went down with injuries. I think the Selection Committee saw that and will reward it.

4 The resumes of Power 6 conference teams like Ole Miss and Xavier did little for me. Ditto for home-court hero Syracuse (all its best wins came at the Carrier Dome), but I do have the Orangemen perilously clinging to the field as my last team in, hoping that Cincy doesn’t pull off that upset over Houston on Sunday. In a strange sort of way, I think bid-stealing Georgetown’s upset of Creighton helped ‘Cuse stay in the field, as it got them a fourth “win vs. the field”.

5 I know the committee has said it won’t punish teams who had lengthy COVID-19 pauses, but I found it hard not to. There just wasn’t enough data to pore over for bubble teams like Louisville (20 games), Saint Louis (20), Wichita State (19), and Xavier (21). It wasn’t intentional, but none of those 4 teams made my field.

NET rankings are noted in parentheses. So without further ado here’s my final Field of 68 projection. Thanks for humoring me and following along, and now let’s embrace the Madness!

FINAL 2020-21 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION
America East (1): HARTFORD (161)

American (1): HOUSTON (5)

ACC (7): Virginia (12), Florida State (24), North Carolina (32), GEORGIA TECH (33), Syracuse (40; Orangemen will be replaced by Cincinnati if Bearcats beat Houston on Sunday), Clemson (41), Virginia Tech (48)

ASUN (1): LIBERTY (86)

Atlantic 10 (2): SAINT BONAVENTURE (27), VCU (36)

Big East (4): Villanova (16), Creighton (25), UConn (30), GEORGETOWN (64)

Big Sky (1): EASTERN WASHINGTON (113)

Big South (1): WINTHROP (55)

Big Ten (9): ILLINOIS (3), Michigan (4), Iowa (6), Ohio State (8), Purdue (22), Wisconsin (26), Maryland (35), Rutgers (38), Michigan State (70)

Big XII (7): Baylor (2), Kansas (11), Texas Tech (17), TEXAS (21), West Virginia (23), Oklahoma State (29), Oklahoma (37)

Big West (1): UCSB (54)

Colonial (1): DREXEL (135)

Conference USA (1): NORTH TEXAS (61)

Horizon (1): CLEVELAND STATE (160)

MAAC (1): IONA (138)

MAC (1): OHIO (87)

MEAC (1): NORFOLK STATE (169)

Missouri Valley (2): LOYOLA-CHICAGO (10), Drake (45)

Mountain West (3): SAN DIEGO STATE (18), Utah State (39), Boise State (50)

NEC (1): MOUNT SAINT MARY’S (158)

OVC (1): MOREHEAD STATE (122)

Pac 12 (5): Colorado (15), USC (19), Oregon (34), UCLA (46), OREGON STATE (91)

Patriot (1): COLGATE (9)

SEC (6): ALABAMA (7), Tennessee (13), Arkansas (14), LSU (28), Florida (31), Missouri (47)

SoCon (1): UNC-GREENSBORO (84)

Southland (1): ABILENE CHRISTIAN (74)

SWAC (1): TEXAS SOUTHERN (208)

Summit (1): ORAL ROBERTS (159)

Sun Belt (1): APPALACHIAN STATE (210)

WCC (2): GONZAGA (1), BYU (20)

WAC (1): GRAND CANYON (106)
_____________________________

Last 4 In: UCLA (46), Boise State (50), Drake (45), Syracuse (40; last team in)

First 4 Out: Colorado State (51; first team out), Wichita State (72), Louisville (56), Ole Miss (53)

Others Considered for At-Large (6): Saint Louis (43), Memphis (52), Seton Hall (57), Xavier (59), Saint John’s (69), Western Kentucky (81)

Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: Hartford (161), Norfolk State (169), Texas Southern (208), Appalachian State (210)
______________________

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): BYU (20), Saint Bonaventure (27)/VCU (36) loser, Utah State (39), Drake (45), Boise State (50)

Power 6 Overall Bids Percentage (38 of 68): 55.9%

Non-Power 6 Overall Bids Percentage (30 of 68): 44.1%
_____________________________

My Preseason Final 4: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan State, Virginia

My Preseason Champion: Gonzaga (like my chances here)
__________________________

My Projecting At-Larges Percentage Since 1991-92 Season: 918 of 973 (94.3%)

My Projecting At-Larges Percentage Since Field Expanded to 68 Teams in 2010-11 Season: 311 of 327 (95.1%)

Number of Times Perfect (4): 2000-01, 2008-09, 2013-14, 2016-17
Click to expand...

It's Your Day - Enjoy!!
 

We differ on one. I have Louisville in and Boise State out.
Last 4 in: UCLA, Louisville, Syracuse, Utah State (last in)
First 4 out: Wichita State (first out), Seton Hall, Colorado State, Duke
 



Looks like Wichita/Drake have knocked out perfect brackets for all already .
 





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