Field of 68 Taking Shape, Sitting At 6-10 Available Bids

[SelectionSunday]

Updated through games played Monday, March 10

Here's our "Field of 68" projection heading into the final week before Selection Sunday. An * and/or (bold) denotes the tournament winner or the highest remaining seed in a multiple-bid conference. NET ranking is in parentheses.

BREAKDOWN
Essentially, I have 18 teams battling for 10 available at-large bids. The 4 listed as "close" in my opinion are not quite locks, but I'll lock them into the Field of 68 if they simply win one more game. Even if they don't win their next game, they're likely to get an at-large bid, but I'm playing it extra safe.

Automatic Qualifers/Highest Remaining Seed (32), See FIELD OF 68 below

Locks (26): Arizona, Auburn, Baylor, BYU, Butler, Colorado, Duke, Houston, Illinois, Iowa, LSU, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Providence, Rutgers, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, Seton Hall, USC, Villanova, Virginia, West Virginia

Close (4): Arizona State, Florida, Marquette, Oklahoma

Bubble (14; noted with current projection): Indiana (in), Memphis (out), Mississippi State (out), NC State (in), Northern Iowa (in), Purdue (out), Richmond (in), Saint Louis (out), Stanford (in), Texas (out), Texas Tech (out), UCLA (in), Wichita State (out), Xavier (out)

Super Duper Longshots (4; perhaps return to discussion if win 2/3 games in conference tournament): Arkansas, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee
_____________________________________________

FIELD OF 68 (through games played March 9)
America East (1): Vermont (80)

American (2): Houston (20), *Cincinnati (51)

ACC (5): Duke (6), Louisville (8), *Florida State (10), Virginia (42), NC State (54)

ASUN (1): LIBERTY (65)

Atlantic 10 (2): *Dayton (3), Richmond (38)

Big East (6): *Creighton (11), Villanova (13), Seton Hall (15), Butler (19), Marquette (26), Providence (37)

Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington (135)

Big South (1): WINTHROP (146)

Big Ten (10): Michigan State (7), Ohio State (16), Maryland (18), *Wisconsin (24), Michigan (25), Rutgers (31), Iowa (34), Penn State (35), Illinois (39), Indiana (59)

Big XII (4): *Kansas (2), Baylor (5), West Virginia (17), Oklahoma (46)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (113)

Colonial (1): HOFSTRA (118)

Conference USA (1): North Texas (96)

Horizon (1): NORTHERN KENTUCKY (149)

Ivy (1): YALE (70)

MAAC (1): Siena (154)

MAC (1): Akron (73)

MEAC (1): NCCU (257)

Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa (48), *BRADLEY (102)

Mountain West (2): San Diego State (4), *UTAH STATE (40)

NEC (1): ROBERT MORRIS (201)

OVC (1): BELMONT (101)

Pac 12 (7): *Oregon (12), Arizona (14), Colorado (23), Stanford (30), USC (43), Arizona State (52), UCLA (76)

Patriot (1): Colgate (115)

SEC (4): *Kentucky (21), Auburn (27), Florida (28), LSU (29)

SoCon (1): EAST TENNESSEE STATE (36)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (77)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (203)

Summit (1): NORTH DAKOTA STATE (131)

Sun Belt (1): Little Rock (140)

WCC (3): *GONZAGA (1), BYU (9), Saint Mary's (32)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (105)
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Last 4 In: Richmond (38), NC State (54), Indiana (59), UCLA (76)

First 4 Out: Wichita State (41), Xavier (45), Saint Louis (49), Memphis (58)

Next 4 Out: Texas Tech (22), Purdue (33), Mississippi State (50), Texas (69)

Longshots: Arkansas (47), Rhode Island (57), Tennessee (63), South Carolina (66)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (6): San Diego State (4), BYU (9), Houston (20), Saint Mary's (32), Richmond (38), Northern Iowa (48)

 

[obobo55]

Think I agree with everything you have here. The only thing I might consider is WichitaSt over Marquette. That may take care of itself if the Shockers win a couple more (even 1) while MU likely loses their next vs SetonHall.

 

[obobo55]

Hey SS, if you wish check out this thread:

Buckyville-T-rank efficiency vs Q2 and above

http://barttorvik.com/trank.php?&begin= ... ad=3&rpi=1# B1G is 7, 8, 9, 10

www.tapatalk.com

All I did was use Torvik's site to limit all teams to Q1/Q2 wins, then sorted by WAB. Only other adjustment I made was for teams with more than 2 Q3 losses, each L got a -0.6 (only applied to Providence, Cincy, Memphis).

I think this yields a pretty decent guideline for seeding and weeds out several teams like TexasTech, Arizona, Texas, Purdue, that haven't performed well.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Hey SS, if you wish check out this thread:

Buckyville-T-rank efficiency vs Q2 and above

http://barttorvik.com/trank.php?&begin= ... ad=3&rpi=1# B1G is 7, 8, 9, 10

www.tapatalk.com

All I did was use Torvik's site to limit all teams to Q1/Q2 wins, then sorted by WAB. Only other adjustment I made was for teams with more than 2 Q3 losses, each L got a -0.6 (only applied to Providence, Cincy, Memphis).

I think this yields a pretty decent guideline for seeding and weeds out several teams like TexasTech, Arizona, Texas, Purdue, that haven't performed well.

Thanks, but I try to avoid looking at how other people break down their at-large selections. Want to formulate my own opinions without "group think" getting in the way. That can be hard to do with all us amateur bracketologists out there!

 

[GopherCountry]

Hey SS, since we are only one loss back in conference play to Purdue and IU, any chance we pass them for a bid if we make a run and both Purdue and IU lose its first round games in Indy?

 

[SelectionSunday]

Hey SS, since we are only one loss back in conference play to Purdue and IU, any chance we pass them for a bid if we make a run and both Purdue and IU lose its first round games in Indy?

Automatic bid or bust.

Gophers could pass them for NIT seeding, I suppose.

 

[GopherCountry]

Automatic bid or bust.

Gophers could pass them for NIT seeding, I suppose.

Thanks

 

[obobo55]

Thanks, but I try to avoid looking at how other people break down their at-large selections. Want to formulate my own opinions without "group think" getting in the way. That can be hard to do with all us amateur bracketologists out there!

Ok cool. Maybe I will hit you up after Sunday?

 

[SelectionSunday]

Ok cool. Maybe I will hit you up after Sunday?

Sounds good. I'll post my final Field of 68 projection both here and on Twitter (@Fieldof68Freak) after the last of the championship games on Saturday, sometime in the wee hours of Sunday morning.

Plan on doing 1 more before then, probably Thursday or Friday.