SelectionSunday
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Here's my latest Field of 68 projection. I'll probably have one, maybe two more before Opening Night on November 25.
Quite a bit of shuffling on the at-larges since my last projection (September 2), most notably in the Big Ten and among non-Power 6 at-larges. I've dropped Ohio State out of the field (not feeling a Buckeye vibe at this moment), and I now have 7 (previously 5) non-Power 6 at-larges in the field. Gut feeling right now is with the shortened season we're going to see a couple (few?) more of those this season than we usually do. In terms of bids, I see potential big seasons for the Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, and Mountain West. Right now I have those conferences combining for 7 overall bids.
I still have the Gophers in the field; that's with my assumption that Both Gach will get his waiver for immediate eligibility. That waiver case is a no-brainer. Power 6-wise, I see a down season for the Big East. Creighton and Villanova should be heavyweights, but after that, not sold on this league in 2020-21.
Teams' current KenPom ranking is noted in parentheses. An * denotes the projected champion in a multiple-bid conference.
FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (10/13/20)
America East (1): Vermont (76)
American (3): *Houston (14), Memphis (59), SMU (88)
ACC (7): Duke (5), Louisville (9), Florida State (15), *Virginia (42), Georgia Tech (64), Clemson (72), North Carolina (84)
ASUN (1): Lipscomb (247)
Atlantic 10 (3): Dayton (4), *Richmond (46), Saint Louis (62)
Big East (4): Creighton (12), *Villanova (18), Seton Hall (20), UConn (52)
Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado (75)
Big South (1): Winthrop (140)
Big Ten (8): Michigan State (7), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (22), Iowa (23), Minnesota (27), Rutgers (28), *Illinois (30), Indiana (34)
Big XII (6): Kansas (1), *Baylor (3), West Virginia (10), Texas Tech (21), Oklahoma (36), Texas (61)
Big West (1): UCSB (160)
Colonial (1): College of Charleston (170)
Conference USA (1): Western Kentucky (113)
Horizon (1): Youngstown State (232)
Ivy (1): Yale (58)
MAAC (1): Iona (221)
MAC (1): Bowling Green (168)
MEAC (1): NCCU (272)
Missouri Valley (2): *Loyola (101), Bradley (107)
Mountain West (2): *San Diego State (6), Boise State (83)
NEC (1): Saint Francis-PA (176)
OVC (1): Austin Peay (172)
Pac 12 (4): Oregon (17), USC (55), Arizona State (63), *UCLA (78)
Patriot (1): Colgate (118)
SEC (6): *Kentucky (29), Florida (32), LSU (37), Arkansas (47), Alabama (60), Tennessee (68)
SoCon (1): UNC-Greensboro (92)
Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (100)
SWAC (1): Southern U (250)
Summit (1): South Dakota State (119)
Sun Belt (1): South Alabama (155)
WCC (2): *Gonzaga (2), BYU (13)
WAC (1): New Mexico State (91)
Last 4 In: Bradley, Clemson, Florida, SMU
First 4 Out: Auburn, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Purdue
Dozen to Watch: Arizona, Furman, Marquette, Maryland, Miami-Florida, Northern Iowa, Providence, Rhode Island, San Francisco, South Carolina, UNLV, Utah State
Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (7): Boise State, Bradley, BYU, Dayton, Memphis, Saint Louis, SMU
Final 4: Baylor, Gonzaga, Villanova, Virginia
Lurking: Creighton, Duke, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan State
National Champion: Gonzaga
Quite a bit of shuffling on the at-larges since my last projection (September 2), most notably in the Big Ten and among non-Power 6 at-larges. I've dropped Ohio State out of the field (not feeling a Buckeye vibe at this moment), and I now have 7 (previously 5) non-Power 6 at-larges in the field. Gut feeling right now is with the shortened season we're going to see a couple (few?) more of those this season than we usually do. In terms of bids, I see potential big seasons for the Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, and Mountain West. Right now I have those conferences combining for 7 overall bids.
I still have the Gophers in the field; that's with my assumption that Both Gach will get his waiver for immediate eligibility. That waiver case is a no-brainer. Power 6-wise, I see a down season for the Big East. Creighton and Villanova should be heavyweights, but after that, not sold on this league in 2020-21.
Teams' current KenPom ranking is noted in parentheses. An * denotes the projected champion in a multiple-bid conference.
FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (10/13/20)
America East (1): Vermont (76)
American (3): *Houston (14), Memphis (59), SMU (88)
ACC (7): Duke (5), Louisville (9), Florida State (15), *Virginia (42), Georgia Tech (64), Clemson (72), North Carolina (84)
ASUN (1): Lipscomb (247)
Atlantic 10 (3): Dayton (4), *Richmond (46), Saint Louis (62)
Big East (4): Creighton (12), *Villanova (18), Seton Hall (20), UConn (52)
Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado (75)
Big South (1): Winthrop (140)
Big Ten (8): Michigan State (7), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (22), Iowa (23), Minnesota (27), Rutgers (28), *Illinois (30), Indiana (34)
Big XII (6): Kansas (1), *Baylor (3), West Virginia (10), Texas Tech (21), Oklahoma (36), Texas (61)
Big West (1): UCSB (160)
Colonial (1): College of Charleston (170)
Conference USA (1): Western Kentucky (113)
Horizon (1): Youngstown State (232)
Ivy (1): Yale (58)
MAAC (1): Iona (221)
MAC (1): Bowling Green (168)
MEAC (1): NCCU (272)
Missouri Valley (2): *Loyola (101), Bradley (107)
Mountain West (2): *San Diego State (6), Boise State (83)
NEC (1): Saint Francis-PA (176)
OVC (1): Austin Peay (172)
Pac 12 (4): Oregon (17), USC (55), Arizona State (63), *UCLA (78)
Patriot (1): Colgate (118)
SEC (6): *Kentucky (29), Florida (32), LSU (37), Arkansas (47), Alabama (60), Tennessee (68)
SoCon (1): UNC-Greensboro (92)
Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (100)
SWAC (1): Southern U (250)
Summit (1): South Dakota State (119)
Sun Belt (1): South Alabama (155)
WCC (2): *Gonzaga (2), BYU (13)
WAC (1): New Mexico State (91)
Last 4 In: Bradley, Clemson, Florida, SMU
First 4 Out: Auburn, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Purdue
Dozen to Watch: Arizona, Furman, Marquette, Maryland, Miami-Florida, Northern Iowa, Providence, Rhode Island, San Francisco, South Carolina, UNLV, Utah State
Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (7): Boise State, Bradley, BYU, Dayton, Memphis, Saint Louis, SMU
Final 4: Baylor, Gonzaga, Villanova, Virginia
Lurking: Creighton, Duke, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan State
National Champion: Gonzaga