Field of 68 Projection, Post NBA Draft Deadline

[SelectionSunday]

I’ll update this again after NCAA announces transfer waiver decisions for Gophers Both Gach and Liam Robbins.

An * denotes the projected champion in a multiple-bid conference.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (August 8)
America East (1): Vermont

American (3): Cincinnati, *Houston, Memphis

ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, *Virginia

ASUN (1): Lipscomb

Atlantic 10 (2): *Richmond, Saint Louis

Big East (5): Creighton, Providence, Seton Hall, UConn, *Villanova

Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado

Big South (1): Winthrop

Big Ten (8): Illinois, Indiana, *Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Rutgers, Wisconsin

Big XII (6): *Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Big West (1): UCSB

Colonial (1): College of Charleston

Conference USA (1): Western Kentucky

Horizon (1): Youngstown State

Ivy (1): Yale

MAAC (1): Iona

MAC (1): Bowling Green

MEAC (1): NCCU

Missouri Valley (2): *Loyola, Northern Iowa

Mountain West (2): *San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast (1): Saint Francis-Pa

Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay

Pac 12 (4): Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, *UCLA

Patriot (1): Colgate

SEC (6): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, *Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee

SoCon (1): UNC-Greensboro

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin

SWAC (1): Southern U

Summit (1): South Dakota State

Sun Belt (1): South Alabama

WCC (2): BYU, *Gonzaga

WAC (1): New Mexico State
__________________________________

Last 4 In: Clemson, Northern Iowa, Providence, UNLV

First 4 Out: Dayton, Florida, Purdue, SMU

Dozen to Watch: Boise State, Bradley, Furman, Marquette, Maryland, Miami-Florida, San Francisco, South Carolina, USC, Utah State, Wright State, Xavier

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (6): BYU, Cincinnati, Memphis, Northern Iowa, Saint Louis, UNLV

Final 4: Baylor, Gonzaga, Villanova, Virginia

Lurking: Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky

National Champion: Gonzaga

 

[gophereric30]

If we get both our guys eligible count me in as we are going to tournament.

 

[Some guy]

If there are no non conference games how does that impact bids per league?

I would think no non conference would make it extremely tough for teams finishing in the middle or bottom of their conference to be on the right side of the bubble.

 

[Ski-U-Ham]

If there are no non conference games how does that impact bids per league?

I would think no non conference would make it extremely tough for teams finishing in the middle or bottom of their conference to be on the right side of the bubble.

Would it also be tougher for some mid majors to build quality resumes, opening more spots up for said middle/ bottom of high major conference teams?

 

[Some guy]

Would it also be tougher for some mid majors to build quality resumes, opening more spots up for said middle/ bottom of high major conference teams?

No.

because there is no actual data to support the big ten being a Missouri valley conference team other than eye test. Because the valley only plays the valley and the big ten only plays the big ten.

 

[Ski-U-Ham]

No.

because there is no actual data to support the big ten being a Missouri valley conference team other than eye test. Because the valley only plays the valley and the big ten only plays the big ten.

Did you mean a B1G team beating a MVC team in your post? Just trying to make sure I understand what you're saying.

So a .500 B1G team is left out at the cost of an .800 MVC team? Don't you think the line, albeit somewhat arbitrarily, needs to be drawn somewhere? And if so, where do you expect said line to fall?

 

[Some guy]

Did you mean a B1G team beating a MVC team in your post? Just trying to make sure I understand what you're saying.

So a .500 B1G team is left out at the cost of an .800 MVC team? Don't you think the line, albeit somewhat arbitrarily, needs to be drawn somewhere? And if so, where do you expect said line to fall?

I have no idea but usually there are hundreds of non conference games that give you mathematical points of comparisons to say .500 big ten is better than .800 MVC team.

this year there may be 0 non conference games.

The .500 big ten team is probably still better than the .800 MVC team but without data points to compare conferences it’s based solely on bias and eye test

 

[Some guy]

Curious to get selection Sunday’s actual thoughts.
Have you ever run simulations or seen them run if you eliminated non-conference games.

What would happen to net rankings and to SOS rankings?

 

[SelectionSunday]

Curious to get selection Sunday’s actual thoughts.
Have you ever run simulations or seen them run if you eliminated non-conference games.

What would happen to net rankings and to SOS rankings?

Not a simulation guy.

I believe NCAA reps (Dan Gavitt?) already have said if there are no non-conference games, NET will not be used. That makes sense. How can you compare teams & conferences if you’re only playing conference games?

I like Joe Lunardi’s suggestion.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

 

[Some guy]

Not a simulation guy.

I believe NCAA reps (Dan Gavitt?) already have said if there are no non-conference games, NET will not be used. That makes sense. How can you compare teams & conferences if you’re only playing conference games?

I like Joe Lunardi’s suggestion.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

I’ve seen it floated as an idea to expand the tourney to 96.

each league gets 2 bids, 1 regular season and 1 tourney.


If the league gives both those bids to the same team that team gets a bye to the round of 64. The second bid automatically goes to the team second in the regular season if the same team won both.

There would then be 32 at-large bids. This is down, but the second place team from each is already in. So you don’t need as many.

it would make the first week of the NCAA tourney crazy.

Tuesday 16 games.
Wednesday 16 games.
Thursday 16 games with Tuesday winners playing teams with byes.
Friday 16 games with Wednesday winners playing teams with byes.
Saturday 8 games with Thursday winners.
Sunday 8 games with Friday winners.

80 games in 6 days.
rest of the tourney as it always has been.

 

[howeda7]

I’ve seen it floated as an idea to expand the tourney to 96.

each league gets 2 bids, 1 regular season and 1 tourney.


If the league gives both those bids to the same team that team gets a bye to the round of 64. The second bid automatically goes to the team second in the regular season if the same team won both.

There would then be 32 at-large bids. This is down, but the second place team from each is already in. So you don’t need as many.

it would make the first week of the NCAA tourney crazy.

Tuesday 16 games.
Wednesday 16 games.
Thursday 16 games with Tuesday winners playing teams with byes.
Friday 16 games with Wednesday winners playing teams with byes.
Saturday 8 games with Thursday winners.
Sunday 8 games with Friday winners.

80 games in 6 days.
rest of the tourney as it always has been.

My only fear is that once it's expanded they will never put it back to 66.

 

[SelectionSunday]

My only fear is that once it's expanded they will never put it back to 68.

A valid concern.

Even though the intention would be that it's a "1-time deal", Pandora's box would be opened.

I just can't see how they fairly select a 68-team field without non-conference games being played. That's why I like Lunardi's idea for 80 teams in that scenario.

 

[howeda7]

A valid concern.

Even though the intention would be that it's a "1-time deal", Pandora's box would be opened.

I just can't see how they fairly select a 68-team field without non-conference games being played. That's why I like Lunardi's idea for 80 teams in that scenario.

Just put the regular season champions of each conference in. I wish they would do that anyway, and there's no reason to hold conference tournaments this year, IMO.

 

[builtbadgers]

A valid concern.

Even though the intention would be that it's a "1-time deal", Pandora's box would be opened.

I just can't see how they fairly select a 68-team field without non-conference games being played. That's why I like Lunardi's idea for 80 teams in that scenario.

Make it mandatory to be above .500

 

[obobo55]

In general, I agree .500 should be the cutoff. However, with unbalanced schedules a 9-11 team could easily be seen as a better team than one at 10-10 that only played the top 3 teams once. Also, you need to consider a team that had 3 or more OT losses differently. To me, that 9-11 team is a couple of bounces from 12-8 or better.

Most often though, I would make the .500 league record a bright line where it is very rare to get in without that criteria. Much rather give an opportunity to a smaller school that dominated than one that has shown they about average against quality competition.

 

[builtbadgers]

In general, I agree .500 should be the cutoff. However, with unbalanced schedules a 9-11 team could easily be seen as a better team than one at 10-10 that only played the top 3 teams once. Also, you need to consider a team that had 3 or more OT losses differently. To me, that 9-11 team is a couple of bounces from 12-8 or better.

Most often though, I would make the .500 league record a bright line where it is very rare to get in without that criteria. Much rather give an opportunity to a smaller school that dominated than one that has shown they about average against quality competition.

There is a great deal of merit that straight .500 is not paying attention to the details, that 9-11 may in fact have big wins against the top, few bad losses against the bottom than someone 10-10. I like drawing the line somewhere otherwise we say 8-12 , like last year was close but the truth is the 8-12 record. I believe a 17-3, 16-4 mid major should be rewarded.

 

[howeda7]

A solution to the concern about at-large bids is to simply designate a certain # of them for non-Power 6 conferences. Whatever the average # of at large births those conferences have gotten over say, the past 3 tournaments, say 6 or so, can be designated for them. That would ensure a good VCU team etc. is not left out if they lose their conference tournament or even come in 2nd in the regular season.