Field of 68 Projection: Boise State emergence brings 5-bid Mountain West into view

[SelectionSunday]

Our Week #10 “Field of 68” projection welcomes new at-large selections Boise State, Iowa State, Nebraska, TCU, and Virginia Tech. At-large selections dropping out this week are Florida, James Madison, and Providence.

The SEC continues to lead the pack with 8 tournament bids. The “It Just Means More” conference is followed by the Big Ten and Big XII with 7 bids apiece, the ACC and Big East with 6, and the hard-charging Mountain West with 5.

Automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are listed first. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or – in the event of a tie – the best NET ranking.

WEEK #10 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played Jan. 14)
America East (1): Vermont (126)

American (2): Memphis (39), FAU (26)

ACC (6): North Carolina (7), Duke (14), Clemson (27), Wake Forest (46), Virginia Tech (51), Miami (57)

ASUN (1): Eastern Kentucky (231)

Atlantic 10 (1): Dayton (17)

Big East (6): UConn (10), Creighton (13), Marquette (21), Villanova (31), Saint John’s (34), Seton Hall (66)

Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington (116)

Big South (1): Winthrop (149)

Big Ten (7): Wisconsin (11), Purdue (3), Illinois (16), Michigan State (22), Ohio State (47), Nebraska (53), Northwestern (69)

Big XII (7): Baylor (12), Houston (1), BYU (5), Iowa State (9), Kansas (15), Oklahoma (23), TCU (29)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (71)

Colonial (1): Drexel (105)

Conference USA (1): Sam Houston (216)

Horizon (1): Oakland (138)

Ivy (1): Princeton (28)

MAAC (1): Saint Peter’s (170)

MAC (1): Akron (89)

MEAC (1): NCCU (252)

Missouri Valley (1): Indiana State (30)

Mountain West (5): Utah State (19), Colorado State (20), San Diego State (25), Nevada (43), Boise State (44)

NEC (1): Merrimack (195)

OVC (1): Western Illinois (221)

Pac 12 (3): Oregon (55), Arizona (2), Utah (24)

Patriot (1): Lafayette (299)

SEC (8): Alabama (4), Tennessee (6), Auburn (8), Kentucky (18), Mississippi State (35), Texas A&M (41), South Carolina (54), Ole Miss (56)

SoCon (1): Samford (80)

Southland (1): McNeese (67)

SWAC (1): Southern U (158)

Summit (1): St. Thomas (122) – ineligible, replaced by Omaha (251)

Sun Belt (1): Troy (144)

WCC (1): Saint Mary’s (32)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (40)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Virginia Tech (51), Ohio State (47), Michigan State (22), (last team in) Miami-Florida (57)

First 4 Out: (first team out) Drake (64), New Mexico (36), Colorado (48), Kansas State (77)

Dirty Dozen to Watch: Cincinnati (33), Texas Tech (37), San Francisco (42), Florida (49), Gonzaga (50), Washington State (52), Iowa (58), Texas (59), Butler (62), Providence (68), Appalachian State (73), NC State (74)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): Colorado State (20), San Diego State (25), FAU (26), Nevada (43), Boise State (44)

Moving In (17): Boise State, Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Washington, Iowa State, Lafayette, Nebraska, NCCU, Oakland, Omaha, Saint Mary’s, Sam Houston, TCU, Troy, Vermont, Virginia Tech, Western Illinois, Winthrop

Dropping Out (17): Colgate, Florida, George Mason, Gonzaga, High Point, James Madison, Marshall, Morehead State, Norfolk State, North Texas, Providence, Purdue Fort Wayne, South Dakota State, Stetson, UMass-Lowell, Weber State, Western Kentucky

THE 36 AT-LARGES QUAD 1 REPORT (in order of wins, then winning %)
Purdue (6-2)
Kansas (5-2)
Arizona (5-3)
Villanova (4-0)
Houston (4-2)
Seton Hall (4-2)
Texas A&M (4-4)
Boise State (3-1)
Duke (3-1)
Northwestern (3-3)
Utah (3-3)
Virginia Tech (3-3)
Clemson (3-4)
Marquette (3-4)
Nevada (2-0)
FAU (2-1)
BYU (2-2)
Creighton (2-2)
Kentucky (2-2)
Illinois (2-3)
Miami (2-3)
Nebraska (2-3)
Saint John’s (2-3)
San Diego State (2-3)
TCU (2-3)
Tennessee (2-4)
Michigan State (2-6)
Ohio State (1-1)
Ole Miss (1-1)
Colorado State (1-2)
Iowa State (1-2)
Mississippi State (1-2)
South Carolina (1-2)
Oklahoma (1-3)
Wake Forest (0-1)
Auburn (0-2)

WEEK #11 GAMES TO WATCH
Martin Luther King Day
Villanova @ Marquette

Tuesday
Samford @ Western Carolina
Purdue @ Indiana
Wake Forest @ NC State
TCU @ Cincinnati
Western Michigan @ Akron
Baylor @ Kansas State
Saint John’s @ Seton Hall
Iowa State @ BYU
Utah State @ New Mexico

Wednesday
Creighton @ UConn
Mississippi State @ Kentucky
Texas Tech @ Houston
Nevada @ San Diego State

Thursday
Minnesota @ Michigan State
Omaha @ South Dakota State
UC-San Diego @ UC-Irvine
Oregon @ Colorado

Saturday
Alabama @ Tennessee
Iowa State @ TCU
Marquette @ Saint John’s
Creighton @ Seton Hall
Oklahoma @ Cincinnati
San Diego State @ Boise State
Purdue @ Iowa
Northwestern @ Nebraska
BYU @ Texas Tech
UConn @ Villanova
Ole Miss @ Auburn
Saint Mary’s @ San Francisco

Note: Records indicated in below power rankings are vs. Division 1 opponents only

BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS
1 Wisconsin (13-3)
2 Purdue (15-2)
3 Illinois (12-4)
4 Northwestern (12-4)
5 Nebraska (13-4)
6 Ohio State (12-4)
7 Michigan State (10-7)
8 Maryland (11-6)
9 Indiana (12-5)
10 Minnesota (12-4)
11 Iowa (10-6)
12 Penn State (8-9)
13 Rutgers (9-7)
14 Michigan (6-10)

SUMMIT LEAGUE POWER RANKINGS
1 South Dakota State (6-9)
2 St. Thomas (10-6)
3 Denver (7-7)
4 Omaha (6-9)
5 Oral Roberts (5-9)
6 South Dakota (5-10)
7 North Dakota State (5-10)
8 North Dakota (6-10)
9 Kansas City (4-12)

STATE OF MINNESOTA IN THE RANKINGS
NET: Gophers #90, Tommies #122
KenPom: Gophers #84, Tommies #129
Haslametrics: Gophers #74, Tommies #94

 

[Cayman]

How close are Minnesota and Iowa resume-wise? Is Iowa's non-conference win over Seton Hall the difference maker? Iowa certainly played a tougher non-conference schedule, but lost to Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Creighton, and their home loss to Michigan might look uglier as time goes on.

 

[SelectionSunday]

How close are Minnesota and Iowa resume-wise? Is Iowa's non-conference win over Seton Hall the difference maker? Iowa certainly played a tougher non-conference schedule, but lost to Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Creighton, and their home loss to Michigan might look uglier as time goes on.

You pegged the difference very well.

Iowa has played a lot more tougher teams, but they’ve lost to most of them. I’d say the main difference is their wins over Seton Hall and Nebraska, as well as overall SOS (#66) and non-conference SOS (#195). The Gophers numbers there are #258 and #358..

 

[SelectionSunday]

Teams currently in my Field of 68 without a true road win:

Michigan State (0-3)
Mississippi State (0-2)
Ohio State (0-3)
Oklahoma (0-2)
Virginia Tech (0-3)

 

[SelectionSunday]

Teams in my Field of 68 with no bad losses (Quads 3 & 4):

Akron
Alabama
Arizona
Auburn
Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Clemson
Colorado State
Creighton
Dayton
Duke
Eastern Washingon
Grand Canyon
Houston
Indiana State
Iowa State
Kansas
Marquette
McNeese
Memphis
Michigan State
Nebraska
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Princeton
Purdue
Samford
San Diego State
South Carolina
Tennessee
TCU
UConn
Utah
Utah State
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Wisconsin

 

[Ope3]

WEEK #10 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played Jan. 14)

Patriot (1): Lafayette (299)

This 299 NET for Lafayette has to be some sort of record. 1-10 Non-Conference then go on a 4-0 start in the Patriot including a W at Colgate.

Sheesh.

 

[SelectionSunday]

This 299 NET for Lafayette has to be some sort of record. 1-10 Non-Conference then go on a 4-0 start in the Patriot including a W at Colgate.

Sheesh.

Played possum in the non-conference.

 

[60's Guy]

IF, New Mexico can beat the bottom two teams in the conference and avoid the devastating loss
either or both of those would be...I think they will be in the NCAA Tournament. Healthy, all their guys available...very fun team to watch...they turn teams over, they run, they attack the rim.

They just beat two solid ranked teams by 15-20 points. Both home games. Can they beat anybody on the road?

 

[SelectionSunday]

IF, New Mexico can beat the bottom two teams in the conference and avoid the devastating loss
either or both of those would be...I think they will be in the NCAA Tournament. Healthy, all their guys available...very fun team to watch...they turn teams over, they run, they attack the rim.

They just beat two solid ranked teams by 15-20 points. Both home games. Can they beat anybody on the road?

Starting Jan. 28 the Lobos' conference schedule is brutal. Play 4 of the 5 other NCAA contenders (Boise State, Nevada, San Diego State & Utah State) on the road, as well as Boise State & Nevada also at home. To show their chops I'd like to see them win a couple of those road games. Definitely a talented team.

 

[60's Guy]

Richard Pitino does his thing...Year Two at New Mexico: Top 25 team. Year 3 at New Mexico:
Top 25 team. This time might be different...they just beat the two bottom feeders on the road.
Those seem to me two types of games Richard has struggled with, this time two double digit wins.

Next up: Nevada and Boise St at home. Win those two and they are likely tied for first place in the Mountain West. The Pit gives them a big advantage. Hopefully, the Lobo's get it done.

A lot of "OH NO... yay"'s watching the Lobos. They are quick. They do dumb stuff but it works a lot! Who else attacks the rim like they do?