Field of 68: Gophers Drop Out of Consideration (for now)

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I'm cheering hard for Purdue, Indiana and Illinois because I'd love to see the NCAA have to take 11 Big Ten teams or at least try to explain why not. The Gophers look like the most solid NIT lock--not going up or down too much unless they go on a holy tear. Nebraska and Northwestern will be contracted.
 

RogueGopher said:
What metrics do you use to come up with 10-15%? ESPN's BPI gives the Gophers 52% chance of winning. What are you seeing that maybe the computers are missing?
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you do realize giving a team only a 52% to win at home is horrible, right? That being said...this is a huge game for Mark Turgeon. He is up for a contract negotiation and if he has another Feb swoon that now results in him losing the Big Ten Championship when he had a 3 game lead with 5 games to play...his long term future in College Park will be in question for sure. The Minnesota game is the easiest (not saying easy..only compared to Rutgers(on road), Michigan, and MSU) one he has left on his schedule. He needs this one and the team knows it.
 
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ATLgopherfan said:
Ah, didn't realize you were talking about only the three most likely games. My math is right for 3 out of 4 if you think we have a 70% chance of winning each game, which we obviously don't. What you're saying makes sense!
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Yes you’re correct that if you wanted to know the probability of all possible ways to win 3 out of 4 (you didn’t care about a specific order occurring), you’d need to multiply the .7^3 * .3 by (4,3).
 



We differ on 2.

I have USC and Oklahoma IN.

I have Richmond and Arkansas OUT.

Last Four In: Utah St, Oklahoma, USC, Rhode Island
First Four Out: Richmond, Georgetown, Purdue, Memphis
 

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