"Field of 65" Projection #3 (1/11/10)

[SelectionSunday]

All RPI rankings are courtesy of CollegeRPI.com.

* Denotes conference leader or (in the event of a tie) best RPI.

America East (1): *Vermont (140)

ACC (7): Duke (2), Wake Forest (30), Clemson (33), *North Carolina (44), Georgia Tech (47), Florida State (60), Miami-Florida (70)

Atlantic Sun (1): *East Tennessee State (115)

Atlantic Ten (4): *Temple (3), Rhode Island (8), Richmond (26), Dayton (29)

Big East (8): West Virginia (1), Syracuse (4), Connecticut (7), *Villanova (10), Pitt (11), Georgetown (12), Louisville (39), Cincinnati (56)

Big Sky (1): *Northern Colorado (78)

Big South (1): *Coastal Carolina (153)

Big Ten (5): Purdue (5), Wisconsin (15), *Michigan State (25), Minnesota (43), Illinois (69)

Big Twelve (7): Kansas (6), Kansas State (9), *Texas (14), Oklahoma State (24), Texas A&M (35), Baylor (38), Missouri (57)

Big West (1): *UCSB (155)

Colonial (1): *William & Mary (40)

Conference USA (1): *UAB (27)

Horizon (1): *Butler (17)

Ivy (1): *Harvard (48)

Metro Atlantic (1): *Siena (42)

MAC (1): *Kent State (63)

MEAC (1): *Morgan State (131)

Missouri Valley (2): *Northern Iowa (16), Wichita State (62)

Mountain West (4): New Mexico (18), BYU (20), UNLV (31), *Colorado State (94)

Northeast (1): *Long Island (266)

Ohio Valley (1): *Murray State (86)

Pac Ten (1): *Cal (32)

Patriot (1): *Lehigh (214)

SEC (4): *Kentucky (13), Tennessee (21), Vanderbilt (28), Florida (81)

Southern (1): *Charleston (99)

Southland (1): *Texas-San Antonio (110)

SWAC (1): *Prairie View A&M (224)

Summit (1): *Oakland (66)

Sun Belt (1): *Denver (101)

West Coast (2): Gonzaga (19), *St. Mary's (36)

WAC (1): *Louisiana Tech (74)

______________

Non-BCS At-Larges (8): Rhode Island (8), New Mexico (18), Gonzaga (19), BYU (20), Richmond (26), Dayton (29), UNLV (31), Wichita State (62)

Last 4 In: Minnesota (43), Cincinnati (56), Miami-Florida (70), Florida (81)

First 4 Out: Xavier (22), Cornell (34), Mississippi State (54), Northwestern (67)

In the Mix (14): Texas Tech (37), Old Dominion (40), Missouri State (45), Marshall (46), Notre Dame (52), VCU (55), Ole Miss (61), Alabama (65), Virginia Tech (71), Tulsa (75), Maryland (77), Washington State (84), Arizona State (88), Ohio State (91)

Play-In Game?: Prairie View A&M (224) vs. vs. Long Island (266)

Next Field of 65 Projection: Monday, January 18th

 

[Blizzard]

Big Ten (5): Purdue (5), Wisconsin (15), *Michigan State (25), Minnesota (43), Illinois (69)

Last 4 In: Minnesota (43), Cincinnati (56), Miami-Florida (70), Florida (81)

We're moving up the world!

 

[rrjackIII]

Texas will now likely be ranked Number 1 - I know last year carries little or no weight in the selection process. I count on the SS projection for that info. But for me, our NCAA tourney loss to Texas last year advances our status ever so slightly - now that they are No. 1 in the country. Now if the selectors just see it that way...

 

[SelectionSunday]

Our resume could end up looking a lot like Wisconsin's did last year, and the Badgers just sneaked in. ... light on big wins outside of the league (they won at Virginia Tech, the Gophers won a neutral-site game vs. Butler) but a strong enough SOS that includes some respectable losses.

I'll feel good about the Gophs' chances as long as we avoid bad losses (IU, Iowa, Penn St) and if/when we beat Sparty, Purdue and/or Bucky a couple times. Beating at least one of those three is what will really give our RPI a spike, and get some street cred with the Selection Committee.

 

[ChemEGopher]

What are the odds the Pac-10 really only ends up with one team in the tourney?

 

[howeda7]

What are the odds the Pac-10 really only ends up with one team in the tourney?

Not good, IMO. There will be pressure on the Committee to take at least two simply to avoid being accused of 'East Cost Bias' plus you'd think that Cal and Washington (and maybe WSU) will find a way to go 12-6 or 13-5 in conference games given how pathetic everyone else is.

 

[youngstowngopher]

SS, Question...I honestly think Butler might take some losses in the Horizon League this year...what would they have to do to protect being an at-large because like I said last year, I don't think this is a team built to win a a conference tournament...I think teams like Detroit, Cleveland State, Wright State are more physically built to take a prize like that.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I would think if Butler goes no worse than 15-3 (maybe even 14-4), they'll have no problem getting an at-large bid. Yes, they have a couple more losses outside of the league this season, but they played a tough nonconference schedule and managed to win a few of the key games (@ Northwestern, Ohio State, Xavier).

I just can't see any way they'll lose many league games, especially considering they've already won at Wright State and Detroit. I think they'll go no worse than 16-2 or 15-3, perhaps losing on the road to Green Bay and Cleveland State along with maybe an unexpected slip-up somewhere.

 

[ChemEGopher]

Not good, IMO. There will be pressure on the Committee to take at least two simply to avoid being accused of 'East Cost Bias' plus you'd think that Cal and Washington (and maybe WSU) will find a way to go 12-6 or 13-5 in conference games given how pathetic everyone else is.

Since seeing this thread I have seen Gary Parrish advocate letting only one Pac-10 team in and Jerry Palm predict the same. Seems like there is a good chance this could happen. I think the biggest issue is that the team that wins the regular season title also has to win the conference tourney. In a league full of weak teams I'm guessing the tourney will be won by whoever gets hot, not neccesarily the team with the best record.

 

[SelectionSunday]

My uneducated guess at this point would be 2 bids. ... Cal + the tournament winner.

But even their resume is pretty weak at this point. Cal really needs to separate itself from the rest of the league if it wants to feel pretty secure heading into Championship Week.

 

[Reserve]

SS,

I was looking at Lunardi's latest yesterday ..

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

I remember he had the Gophers as a 6 previously and I don't think it's unusual see us move up and down a bit as the season progresses and things take a more definative shape.

Any idea though of why he may have moved us down? The Gophers seem to be doing what they should be doing I guess. Our wins are good and the loss to Purdue was expected. Is it the way the nonconference teams on our schedule are performing or is the stock of who we played fallen that much?

One other question .. when they're talking first four out, last four in, are those seeds typically 8 or 9's .. 10's ?

Thanks.