BleedGopher
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per ESPN:
There are many different ways to determine conference strength, and by most objective measures, the Atlantic Coast Conference has traditionally ranked at or near the top of the charts. But a new decade is here, and at this moment, the ACC is not even a top-three basketball conference, and is on pace for one of the weakest seasons since its 2013 expansion.
With the first full weekend of conference play upon us, the ACC is fourth in average BPI and has only five teams in the top 50 of BPI. If those marks hold up, both would be the league's worst since 2013.
So, what is going on in the traditional powerhouse conference of college basketball?
No team encapsulates the ACC's fall this season quite like North Carolina, which doesn't even have the top BPI rating of schools with UNC in their name -- that designation currently belongs to UNC Greensboro (No. 62 in BPI). North Carolina is 66th in BPI entering Friday's games, its worst ranking of any day in the history of the BPI metric (since 2007-08 season).
Yes, the 8-5 Tar Heels have played the seventh-hardest schedule in the country, and some will point to the absence of Cole Anthony (knee) over the last several weeks as reason to be optimistic that North Carolina can turn it around when he returns. But blaming the team's issues on Anthony's injury obscures UNC's deeper problems. Since he last played on Dec. 8, the Tar Heels have been within one point or even exceeded BPI's predicted point margin in three of their four games, with the exception being the loss to Wofford. That's a small sample, but evidence that BPI has North Carolina pegged accurately, with or without Anthony. Bracket Predictor gives North Carolina a 12% chance to make the NCAA tournament.
While the ACC is experiencing a down year, the opposite is true in the Big Ten. The league's six AP Top 25 teams might even be underselling the quality of the league. The conference has the highest average BPI, as well as the most teams in both the top 25 and top 50 of BPI's ratings. Though Michigan State, Michigan, Maryland and Ohio State have gotten most of the early attention, it's actually two teams farther down the list that are equally indicative of B1G strength: Purdue and Wisconsin. Purdue received just 12 votes in the latest AP poll, and Wisconsin had zero, but BPI is much higher on the Boilermakers and the Badgers than the writers are.
Looking beyond Purdue's 9-5 record, BPI sees the 12th-best team in the country, one that has done what good teams do and blown out weaker opponents. Purdue is 7-1 in games decided by more than 10 points, versus 2-4 in games decided by fewer than 10 points. The latter points to some bad luck in close games, a characteristic that tends to be less predictive of the future. Purdue is 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency, seventh in points allowed in the paint, and according to KenPom, a Boilermakers team that has been traditionally strong in the paint ranks 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage.
www.espn.com
Go Gophers!!
There are many different ways to determine conference strength, and by most objective measures, the Atlantic Coast Conference has traditionally ranked at or near the top of the charts. But a new decade is here, and at this moment, the ACC is not even a top-three basketball conference, and is on pace for one of the weakest seasons since its 2013 expansion.
With the first full weekend of conference play upon us, the ACC is fourth in average BPI and has only five teams in the top 50 of BPI. If those marks hold up, both would be the league's worst since 2013.
So, what is going on in the traditional powerhouse conference of college basketball?
No team encapsulates the ACC's fall this season quite like North Carolina, which doesn't even have the top BPI rating of schools with UNC in their name -- that designation currently belongs to UNC Greensboro (No. 62 in BPI). North Carolina is 66th in BPI entering Friday's games, its worst ranking of any day in the history of the BPI metric (since 2007-08 season).
Yes, the 8-5 Tar Heels have played the seventh-hardest schedule in the country, and some will point to the absence of Cole Anthony (knee) over the last several weeks as reason to be optimistic that North Carolina can turn it around when he returns. But blaming the team's issues on Anthony's injury obscures UNC's deeper problems. Since he last played on Dec. 8, the Tar Heels have been within one point or even exceeded BPI's predicted point margin in three of their four games, with the exception being the loss to Wofford. That's a small sample, but evidence that BPI has North Carolina pegged accurately, with or without Anthony. Bracket Predictor gives North Carolina a 12% chance to make the NCAA tournament.
While the ACC is experiencing a down year, the opposite is true in the Big Ten. The league's six AP Top 25 teams might even be underselling the quality of the league. The conference has the highest average BPI, as well as the most teams in both the top 25 and top 50 of BPI's ratings. Though Michigan State, Michigan, Maryland and Ohio State have gotten most of the early attention, it's actually two teams farther down the list that are equally indicative of B1G strength: Purdue and Wisconsin. Purdue received just 12 votes in the latest AP poll, and Wisconsin had zero, but BPI is much higher on the Boilermakers and the Badgers than the writers are.
Looking beyond Purdue's 9-5 record, BPI sees the 12th-best team in the country, one that has done what good teams do and blown out weaker opponents. Purdue is 7-1 in games decided by more than 10 points, versus 2-4 in games decided by fewer than 10 points. The latter points to some bad luck in close games, a characteristic that tends to be less predictive of the future. Purdue is 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency, seventh in points allowed in the paint, and according to KenPom, a Boilermakers team that has been traditionally strong in the paint ranks 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage.
BPI says ACC, Big Ten trending in different directions
With the calendar having flipped to 2020, BPI's data says the ACC is having a historically bad year in college hoops.
Go Gophers!!