Do you see 3-4 more BIG 10 WINS?

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I don't think they get more than 6 B1G wins still... They are improved however...
 




SelectionSunday said:
At this point, if Gophers get any less than 4 more wins I'll be diappointed.

A lot of WINNABLE games remain on the schedule. ... only @ Illinois & @ Purdue are ones I'd chalk up as L's. Perhaps @ Nebraska, too (we really suck in Lincoln).
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Strangely enough, that Nebraska game feels big for me on multiple levels. Road win. End the curse in that arena (maybe more losses in that place that we should have won than any other in the B1G). Get us above Huskers in the pecking order with three wins in a row. We need to knock off a big boy eventually but claiming superiority over other also rans feels important too.
 




6 more conf wins, and 2 more in BTN tournament in Mpls. MN still has a "big upset" win remaining, like we seem to have most years, and the closer 1-2 possession games we can win. Big upset win no one sees coming...@Illinois or @Purdue..? Would be terrific.
 

Prior to the start of the season, I thought that Johnson could and should be able to get a 17-14 overall record with this roster and schedule but 18-13 would be better and still a fair target. However, that projection assumed they would win one of the Missouri and San Francisco matchups. Since they lost both of those games, they had to win one more Big Ten game than I envisioned with those pre-season projections.

This team has been a bit more competitive in the conference than I thought they would be in the preseason. They'll need four more to get to 17-14 and I think getting there is more likely than not. They'll need five more (5-6 record) to get to 18-13. While I think that is doable, the chances of that might be below 50%.

I don't think the NCAA tournament was ever in the cards. We need to move up about 10 NET ranks to be pretty confident of an NIT bid. The win at PSU moved us up about 5 or 6.
 
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OK - let's look at the schedule - remaining games with current B1G records of each team and results of prior games if played

Gophers are (4-5) in B1G

Sat 2-3: home Northwestern (6-3)
Tues 2-6: home MSU (4-5) -- (gophs lost 66-76)
Sund 2-11: at Iowa (4-5) -- (Gophs lost 77-86)
Thurs 2-15: at Purdue (8-2)
Sund 2-18: home Rutgers (2-6)
Thurs 2-22: home OSU (3-6) -- (Gophs lost 74-84)
Sund 2-25: at Nebraska (5-5) -- (Gophs won 76-65)
Weds 2-28: at Illinois (6-3)
Sat 3-2: home PSU (3-6) -- (Gophs won 83-74)
Weds 3-6: home Indiana (4-5) -- (Gophs lost 62-74)
Sat 3-9: at Northwestern (6-3)

off the top of my head, I would say Gophers are favored over Rutgers and Penn State. MSU, OSU, Nebraska and Indiana are toss-ups. and as of right now, Gophers are underdogs vs NW, Iowa, Purdue and Illinois.

I could realistically see the Gophers going anywhere from 2-9 to 5-6 in remaining games, putting them somewhere between 6-14 to 9-11 in the B1G. If they could somehow go 6-5 in remaining games and finish 10-10 in conference, that is my absolute best-case scenario, but that would require a couple of upsets.

obviously, injuries can change the odds.
 



short ornery norwegian said:
OK - let's look at the schedule - remaining games with current B1G records of each team and results of prior games if played

Gophers are (4-5) in B1G

Sat 2-3: home Northwestern (6-3)
Tues 2-6: home MSU (4-5) -- (gophs lost 66-76)
Sund 2-11: at Iowa (4-5) -- (Gophs lost 77-86)
Thurs 2-15: at Purdue (8-2)
Sund 2-18: home Rutgers (2-6)
Thurs 2-22: home OSU (3-6) -- (Gophs lost 74-84)
Sund 2-25: at Nebraska (5-5) -- (Gophs won 76-65)
Weds 2-28: at Illinois (6-3)
Sat 3-2: home PSU (3-6) -- (Gophs won 83-74)
Weds 3-6: home Indiana (4-5) -- (Gophs lost 62-74)
Sat 3-9: at Northwestern (6-3)

off the top of my head, I would say Gophers are favored over Rutgers and Penn State. MSU, OSU, Nebraska and Indiana are toss-ups. and as of right now, Gophers are underdogs vs NW, Iowa, Purdue and Illinois.

Gophs need to win at least two of the toss-ups, and try to split with NW. that gives them 5 wins and a 9-11 overall conference record.

obviously, injuries can change the odds.
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If healthy, Gophers will beat Ohio State & Indiana. Very confident about that.

Also very confident we'll get smoked in Lincoln.
 

SelectionSunday said:
At this point, if Gophers get any less than 4 more wins I'll be diappointed.

A lot of WINNABLE games remain on the schedule. ... only @ Illinois & @ Purdue are ones I'd chalk up as L's. Perhaps @ Nebraska, too (we really suck in Lincoln).
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I agree. Should be at least 5 more wins on this schedule.
 

SelectionSunday said:
If healthy, Gophers will beat Ohio State & Indiana. Very confident about that.

Also very confident we'll get smoked in Lincoln.
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Okay, Selection, I'm going out on a limb and suggesting, hoping, praying they beat the Huskers in Lincoln. I've seen them a few times and they can be terrible. We're due to catch a team napping on the road one of these days. I don't count Penn State.

You set up the question that has been stewing in my mind about OSU for a couple of years, and is now percolating. How they heck can they be so bad? They have highly rated players, they looked like world beaters against the Gophers for 18-25 minutes, won some big non can games, and they have been brutal in the regular season. Why are they so bad? I look at their guards and think they should be hovering somewhere near the top three and they are at high risk of being in the bottom three.

You who don't know all, but know most and a lot more than me, need to offer your input on the demise of the Suckeyes.
 

We have 11 Big Ten games remaining, right?
Just want to make sure I know where the 'start' and 'finish' line are....
Unless (or until) I hear differently I am going to answer based on the assumption that we have 11 Big Ten games remaining
 

We should be favored in all of our HOME games and there are 6. The scariest of the bunch, to me, is Michigan State as they always get better in February and March even though many times they are not very good in December or even January. Even that game, though, I would say we should be favored to win....maybe 51/49 but still favored to win. And the rest I am more comfortable about. A little math tells me that we should win 70% of those games. That's 4.2 wins. On the road the math is very different. We should win 25% of those games based on our schedule. With 5 ROAD games remaining, odds would say we win 1.2 games. So the OVER/UNDER (IMO) should be 5.4.
 

Indiana Gopher said:
We should be favored in all of our HOME games and there are 6. The scariest of the bunch, to me, is Michigan State as they always get better in February and March even though many times they are not very good in December or even January. Even that game, though, I would say we should be favored to win....maybe 51/49 but still favored to win. And the rest I am more comfortable about. A little math tells me that we should win 70% of those games. That's 4.2 wins. On the road the math is very different. We should win 25% of those games based on our schedule. With 5 ROAD games remaining, odds would say we win 1.2 games. So the OVER/UNDER (IMO) should be 5.4.
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I doubt the Gophers will be favored against either MSU or Northwestern. You are right that Sparty has a pattern of playing well in February. The Cats have been playing well and are setting their sights high. I doubt they overlook the Gophers.
 

Holy Man said:
Okay, Selection, I'm going out on a limb and suggesting, hoping, praying they beat the Huskers in Lincoln. I've seen them a few times and they can be terrible. We're due to catch a team napping on the road one of these days. I don't count Penn State.

You set up the question that has been stewing in my mind about OSU for a couple of years, and is now percolating. How they heck can they be so bad? They have highly rated players, they looked like world beaters against the Gophers for 18-25 minutes, won some big non can games, and they have been brutal in the regular season. Why are they so bad? I look at their guards and think they should be hovering somewhere near the top three and they are at high risk of being in the bottom three.

You who don't know all, but know most and a lot more than me, need to offer your input on the demise of the Suckeyes.
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OSU hasn't won a BTN game away from Columbus. Teams are shooting well against them, esp. 3's (nearly 36%). Their defense has given up waaay too many easy baskets and they don't turn teams over. After their great start early on, their offense has shot poorly (esp. 3's) the last ten games w/EFG% less than 50%--not good. Also, they like most BTN teams, have a shallow bench. Okpara is long, but he can be moved around. Key hasn't gotten better in two years. Battle is a good spot shooter, but doesn't have skills to the rim. Teams have shut down Battle recently, and adjusted to Holtmann's schemes. OSU has 6 of 11 games remaining at home. All this based on statistics, and watching them with interest 6-7 games throughout the year.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
OK - let's look at the schedule - remaining games with current B1G records of each team and results of prior games if played

Gophers are (4-5) in B1G

Sat 2-3: home Northwestern (6-3)
Tues 2-6: home MSU (4-5) -- (gophs lost 66-76)
Sund 2-11: at Iowa (4-5) -- (Gophs lost 77-86)
Thurs 2-15: at Purdue (8-2)
Sund 2-18: home Rutgers (2-6)
Thurs 2-22: home OSU (3-6) -- (Gophs lost 74-84)
Sund 2-25: at Nebraska (5-5) -- (Gophs won 76-65)
Weds 2-28: at Illinois (6-3)
Sat 3-2: home PSU (3-6) -- (Gophs won 83-74)
Weds 3-6: home Indiana (4-5) -- (Gophs lost 62-74)
Sat 3-9: at Northwestern (6-3)

off the top of my head, I would say Gophers are favored over Rutgers and Penn State. MSU, OSU, Nebraska and Indiana are toss-ups. and as of right now, Gophers are underdogs vs NW, Iowa, Purdue and Illinois.

I could realistically see the Gophers going anywhere from 2-9 to 5-6 in remaining games, putting them somewhere between 6-14 to 9-11 in the B1G. If they could somehow go 6-5 in remaining games and finish 10-10 in conference, that is my absolute best-case scenario, but that would require a couple of upsets.

obviously, injuries can change the odds.
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Northwestern = L
Sparty = L
Hawkeye = L
Boilermaker = L
Rutgers = W
Buckeye = L
Cornhusker = L
Illini = L
PSU = W
Hoosier = L
Northwestern = L

2 MAYBE 3 more wins for the Gopher this year. I truly hope I'm wrong, lack of any confidence in the HC would be the reason.
 
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RockChalk said:
Northwestern = L
Sparty = L
Hawkeye = L
Boilermaker = L
Rutgers = W
Buckeye = L
Cornhusker = L
Illini = L
PSU = W
Hoosier = L
Northwestern = L

2 MAYBE 3 more winds for the Gopher this year. I truly hope I'm wrong, lack of any confidence in the HC would be the reason.
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Wow! That is a fatalistic take! You have us with 2 wins the rest of the year? I'll take that bet now!
 



Holy Man said:
Okay, Selection, I'm going out on a limb and suggesting, hoping, praying they beat the Huskers in Lincoln. I've seen them a few times and they can be terrible. We're due to catch a team napping on the road one of these days.
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Unfortunately, Nebraska doesn't nap at home. They are 13-1 at home (loss in November to #13 Creighton). When you've seen the Huskers be terrible, it has been on the road, where they aren't very good. But at home, they play to sellouts and crazy fans. I wish the Gophers had that here, because they need it.

Minnesota has never won at Pinnacle Bank Arena. I don't see it coming this year, either. Hope we're due, but I side with SS on this. Likely a tough night for the Gophers in Lincoln awaits in late Feb.
 



Rutgers and PSU sounds about right. Sometimes the truth hurts.
 


RockChalk said:
Northwestern = L
Sparty = L
Hawkeye = L
Boilermaker = L
Rutgers = W
Buckeye = L
Cornhusker = L
Illini = L
PSU = W
Hoosier = L
Northwestern = L

2 MAYBE 3 more winds for the Gopher this year. I truly hope I'm wrong, lack of any confidence in the HC would be the reason.
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You realize they will have the same coach they had when they won four of their first 9 conference games, right? Of those first 9 games, 5 were on the road. Of the last 11 games, 6 are at home. But, your call is that they can only win 2, MAYBE 3 more games.

Is it your theory that shitty coaches get shittier as the year goes on?
 

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