David Shama: Henderson Not Likely to Sign with U

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Henderson Not Likely to Sign with U

Unless Seantrel Henderson accepts a scholarship offer, the Gophers aren’t likely to move up much in the rankings that list the college football recruiting classes for 2010. Rivals.com has the Gophers at No. 48 while Scout.com ranks Minnesota No. 66, the lowest of any Big Ten Conference school.

Henderson, the offensive tackle from Cretin-Derham Hall, has consistently been ranked among the top five prep prospects in the country by recruiting sources. He told Sports Headliners about a week ago that he will choose Miami, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Ohio State or Southern California. The opinion here is the Gophers are unlikely to be his final choice.

Rivals.com and Scout.com use a five star rating system. Henderson, of course, is a five star and Rivals has two four star players on the list of Minnesota verbal commitments, offensive tackle Jimmy Gjere of Irondale and running back Lamonte Edwards from Woodbury.

While the Gophers rank low in the recruiting rankings, that doesn’t mean the class of 2010 won’t help Minnesota become a winning program. There’s not a one-to-one correlation between the best recruiting classes in the country and who wins football games a few years later.

It’s something like the big shot who brags about having an expensive car to drive around town. Some schmuck drives a junker but can still arrive at the same destinations as the big shot.

In Sports Illustrated’s preview of the top 10 football teams for next season the magazine (January 18 issue) ranks Boise State No. 2, Iowa No. 5 and Wisconsin No. 10. Annual recruiting rankings seldom, if ever, have any of those programs in their top 20 listings.

The most hyped recruits often are big contributors to their college teams but other factors determine whether a program wins. Lesser publicized players frequently become extraordinary, too. Sometimes their college coaches find new positions for them that allow their talents to emerge, or players may develop late physically and emotionally.

Whether a school has winning teams is impacted too on how effectively the collective roster fits together. Is the sum better than the parts? A roster of good players that fill every need and get along with each other is a better bet to win than a team with a couple of stars, glaring needs in several positions and a grouchy locker room.

Gophers coach Tim Brewster told Sports Headliners he expects to “add” a couple names to the verbal commitment list before Wednesday. “We battle until the final whistle,” he said.

Under NCAA rules coaches can't leave their campuses after midnight on Saturday for further recruiting. Brewster was at the end of recruiting last Friday when he spoke with Sports Headliners.

“I am finishing up one of the wildest weeks I’ve ever had,” he said. “I am exhausted.”

During five days Brewster’s destinations were Dallas, Houston, Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, Atlanta (twice), St. Louis and Minneapolis. All of that is just a blip in all the time and energy Brewster, his staff and other college coaches spend recruiting. On Friday Brewster gave some hint about what he will detail on Wednesday at a news conference when he said about his 2010 recruits: “I feel really good about this class.”

For more on Rivals.com and Scout.com visit http://rivals100.rivals.com/teamrank.asp?Year=2010&Page=2&PosType=0&Sort=0

http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=14&yr=2010

http://www.shamasportsheadliners.com/

Go Gophers!!
 

Lowest ranked Big 10 recruiting class? Yikes.
 


Lowest ranked Big 10 recruiting class? Yikes.

Yeah, that terrifies me. Freaking Indiana is about ten spots above us.

I'm not sure if I should just ignore it and believe Scout is worthless as a predictor or what. Regardless, I shan't be hanging my hat on the "we're recruiting above our finish in the Big Ten" argument for the remainder of the year if this is where we end up.
 

Shows a little bit how overall recruiting is getting better in the Big Ten. 66th would not have been last in past years. Scout just seems to not like our guys as much as Rivals does. I think that's a sign that this year's class is a little more "project" based as well. I think Scout looks more at who is more refined, while Rivals attempts to project. Either way, this better be the lowest class we see over the next few years, or else we'll be no better than ordinary anyway.
 


Just further indication that Brew needs a good season in 2010. If not to keep his job, then to maintain (or re-start) the message that we're a program on the rise. If we have another bad-looking season, recruiting will dry up even further.
 

Scout is tettible. In my opinion rivals is by far the best.

I would never trust scout, whenever I am looking for a player I go right to rivals
 

This guy Shama offers no insight as to why Seantrel won't sign with the Gophers.

DaveShama said:
The opinion here is the Gophers are unlikely to be his final choice.

Pretty hard-hitting.
 

This guy Shama offers no insight as to why Seantrel won't sign with the Gophers.



Pretty hard-hitting.

My thoughts exactly, why say that and then give no indication as to why you believe that?
 



Don't let this class fool you....It is a good solid class. We are going to get some very nice starting players out of it and some very very solid depth players!! Just remember, this class would have been at the level of Masons best class. I personally consider his 2003 class to be his best.

Even then, If you compare the two, Brew's class is still head and shoulders above Masons 03' group. ESPN has some very nice ratings for these guys.

I'm excited!!!
 

Don't let this class fool you....It is a good solid class. We are going to get some very nice starting players out of it and some very very solid depth players!! Just remember, this class would have been at the level of Masons best class. I personally consider his 2003 class to be his best.

Even then, If you compare the two, Brew's class is still head and shoulders above Masons 03' group. ESPN has some very nice ratings for these guys.

I'm excited!!!

It is an okay class as long as it is not the norm. There are some good players in this class and we are gaining some good depth, but this can't be "typical" if we want to become an upper echelon BT team where we can compete for titles every so often. I'm not saying it's not possible, just saying that we can't have two great to decent classes, and then have a run of just "okay" classes and think that'll cut it. 2010 (2011 recruiting) is going to be a huge year for Minnesota football. This 2010 season has to begin to establish the new crop of Gophers making their mark and coming up with big wins, and 2011 recruiting has to come through with some more "studs". 2011 recruiting of course will probably be reflective of the 2010 product on the field, so a good showing will be important.
 

Dang, the U must spit in this D. Shama's coffee or somethin' but like the other local writers they have made a career out of riding the u into the ground (u deserved some of it -nils hasselmo).
Any talk of success from Brew or Tubby scares the oldtimers cuz they would have to really write instead of same old same old.
 

Lowest ranked Big 10 recruiting class? Yikes.

This can only be seen as a pretty big failure. But wait, maybe they won't end up sucking in the end, at least according to Shama or whoever. Hope is officially the Gophers' strategy.
 



Shama cites 6 cities that Brewster has visited in the last week. I have been trying to decipher who he was visiting in each city to see who could potentially be the Cooper/Carter type last minute surprise recruit.

Atlanta: R Bennett

Detroit: E Thomas III (obviously Ill. Recruit now)

Dallas: C Nelson, Josh Allen?, Kisseberth?

Houston: Huff, Hawkins, D Williams

St Louis: M Hill (keep commit)

Indy: Manuel (keep commit), maybe I Lewis (MSU commit)
 

Shama cites 6 cities that Brewster has visited in the last week. I have been trying to decipher who he was visiting in each city to see who could potentially be the Cooper/Carter type last minute surprise recruit.

Atlanta: R Bennett

Detroit: E Thomas III (obviously Ill. Recruit now)

Dallas: C Nelson, Josh Allen?, Kisseberth?

Houston: Huff, Hawkins, D Williams

St Louis: M Hill (keep commit)

Indy: Manuel (keep commit), maybe I Lewis (MSU commit)


He was in Atlanta to speak at a seminar I believe. I was at the Atlanta airport late Friday night and sat next to Dennis Erickson (ASU HC) at an airport bar. Very nice guy. Said he was in town to speak at the same seminar (I think Nike sponsored it).
 

Dang, the U must spit in this D. Shama's coffee or somethin' but like the other local writers they have made a career out of riding the u into the ground (u deserved some of it -nils hasselmo).
Any talk of success from Brew or Tubby scares the oldtimers cuz they would have to really write instead of same old same old.
You really think that's the source of negative press? That they're worried they'll have to write new material?
 

Dang, the U must spit in this D. Shama's coffee or somethin' but like the other local writers they have made a career out of riding the u into the ground (u deserved some of it -nils hasselmo).
Any talk of success from Brew or Tubby scares the oldtimers cuz they would have to really write instead of same old same old.

Shama is actually one of the more positive columnists, imo. Aside from his opinion that SH wouldn't be coming here, his take seemed largely backed by the facts and/or framed to make it seem like things are moving in the right direction.. Hard to argue that Scout has us as the lowest ranked recruiting class in the BT.
 

Mike Max said on the Sports Show last night that he is hearing that SH will end up signing with the gophers. I wonder who he heard that from. I'm sure he's a pretty well-connected guy.

Not sure I believe him, but I wish I could. Guess we'll find out.
 

I love how every time there is a new article about him a new thread is started. But i would love to know does anyone here actually think he is coming here? Because I think a reasonable person would be a fool to not be totally floored by his decision if he picks up a U of M hat on signing day.
 

Mike Max said on the Sports Show last night that he is hearing that SH will end up signing with the gophers. I wonder who he heard that from. I'm sure he's a pretty well-connected guy.

Not sure I believe him, but I wish I could. Guess we'll find out.

I have to believe Mike is hearing from those hopeful, who may know that Seantrel is indeed heavily considering the Gophers, but don't really know if he'll actually sign. But really, wouldn't shock me one bit, the dude has a lot of ties here, it's gotta be hard to leave all of that. Football is great, but to be around those you love most while still playing big time college football is a good draw. I'm still thinking OSU, but you never know....
 

As others have already said, what an asinine heading for that article. "Henderson not likely to sign." And one sentence saying that people there think it's unlikely, but no in depth analysis as to why? I want those few minutes of my life back. What a complete waste.

And Scout sucks. They are much better at ranking basketball players than football players for some reason.
 

From Shama...Henderson Not Likely to Sign with U

"While the Gophers rank low in the recruiting rankings, that doesn’t mean the class of 2010 won’t help Minnesota become a winning program. There’s not a one-to-one correlation between the best recruiting classes in the country and who wins football games a few years later."



Huh...?:rolleyes:
 

From Shama...Henderson Not Likely to Sign with U

"While the Gophers rank low in the recruiting rankings, that doesn’t mean the class of 2010 won’t help Minnesota become a winning program. There’s not a one-to-one correlation between the best recruiting classes in the country and who wins football games a few years later."



Huh...?:rolleyes:


I know. How can we take anything he says seriously when he refuses to admit that Rivals "scientific" evaluation of players is the only precursor for success. :banghead:
 

From Shama...Henderson Not Likely to Sign with U

"While the Gophers rank low in the recruiting rankings, that doesn’t mean the class of 2010 won’t help Minnesota become a winning program. There’s not a one-to-one correlation between the best recruiting classes in the country and who wins football games a few years later."



Huh...?:rolleyes:

Yeah, I hate to agree with you, but this article is full of BS. Those few teams he noted as having success despite not recruiting the most heralded athletes out of high school are the exception, not the norm.
 

There is a correlation between recruiting rankings and wins and losses. It's just not a one-to-one correlation, however. If it were, then the school with the number 1 recruiting class would be the national champion, while the school with the lowest rated recruiting class would automatically be the worst team.

People do jump on this and say "See, recruiting rankings are worthless!", which is unmerited. Teams with higher rated recruiting classes will tend to do better than those with poorer rated recruiting classes. Recruiting isn't everything, but it's not nothing either.
 

From Shama...Henderson Not Likely to Sign with U

"While the Gophers rank low in the recruiting rankings, that doesn’t mean the class of 2010 won’t help Minnesota become a winning program. There’s not a one-to-one correlation between the best recruiting classes in the country and who wins football games a few years later."



Huh...?:rolleyes:

Yeah, that national championship Notre Dame won during the Charlie Weis era was amazing!
 

There is a correlation between recruiting rankings and wins and losses. It's just not a one-to-one correlation, however. If it were, then the school with the number 1 recruiting class would be the national champion, while the school with the lowest rated recruiting class would automatically be the worst team.

People do jump on this and say "See, recruiting rankings are worthless!", which is unmerited. Teams with higher rated recruiting classes will tend to do better than those with poorer rated recruiting classes. Recruiting isn't everything, but it's not nothing either.

Yes, correlation does not equal causation. But to underestimate what good recruiting does for a program is a mistake.

If you look at the top ten recruiting classes year in and year out, a majority of the teams are the true contenders for Conference and National Titles.
 

Yeah, that national championship Notre Dame won during the Charlie Weis era was amazing!

Nice job of picking out another exception to the norm.

Weis put together a very good offense while at Notre Dame. He just forgot that he was responsible for all phases of the game, and not just one.
 

...In Sports Illustrated’s preview of the top 10 football teams for next season the magazine (January 18 issue) ranks Boise State No. 2, Iowa No. 5 and Wisconsin No. 10. Annual recruiting rankings seldom, if ever, have any of those programs in their top 20 listings.


Wonder what Boise State's pre-season ranking would be if they were going to play the Gopher's schedule in 2010?

My guess...they would NOT be ranked, because teams with a projected 5-7 record don't get ranked.:eek:
 

Nice job of picking out another exception to the norm.

Weis put together a very good offense while at Notre Dame. He just forgot that he was responsible for all phases of the game, and not just one.

Agreed, picking out one example doesn't prove anything, except to knock down a straw man. No one is claiming that a highly ranked recuiting class is a guarantee of anything, only that there is a correlation between recruiting rankings and success on the field. Some teams will perform more highly than their recruiting rankings, others will perform less well.

Some people are just grinding axes, others don't seem to understand the concept of correlation. It's like saying "My grandfather lived to be 90 and he smoked, so cigarettes aren't bad for your health". No one claims that smoking is a guarantee that you won't have a long life, but on average, a smoker has a poorer chance of living longer.

The idea that recruiting rankings are somehow useless requires ignoring the correlation, or assuming that is is impossible to evaluate talent with any degree of accuracy at all. If the latter was the case, then it would be a waste of time to recruit at all.
 




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