It seems like a number of the players ranked outside the top 30 or top 40 from Minnesota have had decent, but amazing careers.
Jericho Sims has never averaged double digits in points or rebounds, though he does shoot around 65% from the field, which I think is pretty good, even for a big man, and you could argue his production is curtailed by having to share minutes with some of the 5-stars that Shaka Smart brings in.
Brad Davison's scoring totals have dropped every year, in addition to just being insufferable on the court. He's also shooting about 33% from the field as a senior, compared to around 39% his first 3 years.
Nate Reuvers was third team all Big Ten as a junior, his only season averaging double digit scoring. He also averages under 4 rebounds a game for his career at 6'11"
Tyler Wahl is averaging 5.3 points and 4.5 rebounds in 25 minutes a game this year. Isaiah Ihnen is comparable in per 40 metrics, scoring a little less, and rebounding a little more, but he only plays 15 minutes a game.
Alex Illikainen averaged 1.5 points per game in his 3 years in D-I before dropping to D-II as a senior.
Joe Hedstrom has played in 14 games and scored a total of 6 points in his two years at Wisconsin.
Theo John is averaging 8 points and 5 rebounds as a senior.
Race Thompson is at 9 points and 6 rebounds as a junior.
I don't look at that sort of production and think that we could never get a player of that caliber from out of state, so we absolutely need to capitalize on the ones that grow up near here.
The ones that jump out at me as difference makers that it seems like we could have reasonably gotten and didn't are McKinley Wright, David Roddy, Dawson Garcia, and Kerwin Walton. Wright and Roddy both appear to have significantly outplayed their rankings (Wright was outside the top 150, Roddy was very far down, possibly didn't have a ranking), and the PAC-12 and Mountain West are weaker conferences than the Big Ten. Dawson Garcia took an official visit here, which a lot of in-state recruits do not, and would have been the highest or second highest ranked recruit in the Pitino era, right around where Oturu was. Kerwin Walton is averaging 41.5% from 3 on nearly 5 attempts per game, and averaging 8 points, and nearly 2 assists and 2 rebounds per game, but, when it came down to the wire, he chose one of the premier programs in all of college basketball over us.
For some attainable and forgotten out of state targets:
Marcus Zegarowski was Big East all freshman team, all Big East second team as a sophomore, all Big East first team as a junior. Has averaged over 15 points a game his past 2 seasons, in addition to averaging 5 assists, 4 rebounds, 42% from 3, and 52% from 2 for his career. Low 4 star from Massachusetts.
Shamorie Ponds was Big East all freshman team, and first team all Big East in both his sophomore and junior years, averaging 19.5 points per game over his 3 years at St. John's, along with over 4 assists, 4 rebounds, and 2 steals per game.
Wade Baldwin averaged 14 points and 5 assists his sophomore year at Vanderbilt and was a 40% 3 point shooter, then got drafted in the first round of the 2016 NBA draft. 3 star out of New Jersey who actually visited Minnesota.
Riley LaChance also averaged double digit scoring and over 40% from 3 in his 4 years at Vandy. Low 4 star/high 3 star out of Wisconsin.
Tyrese Haliburton was another out of state 3 star the Gophers went after who went to the NBA after his sophomore year. Not sure if were close to getting him at all, but he ended up at Iowa State.
I guess as far as establishing a pipeline, where like all the players from this area come to Minnesota, then in-state is the way to go, but I think you can also viably assemble a strong roster here by being able to hit on some of the 100-150 ranked players from out of state who can be good 3 or 4 year contributors or even stars.
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