Can Wisconsin continue its dominance? Previewing the Big Ten West's season
Wisconsin has advanced to the Big Ten title game six of the past nine years, and although the Badgers are the favorites to make it this season, might there be a dark-horse candidate looking to end their run?
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Here's the Minnesota portion:
Head coach: P.J. Fleck (23-15, fourth year)
2019: 11-2 (7-2), 13th in SP+
2020 projection: 5-3, 16th
Top returning players: WR Rashod Bateman, QB Tanner Morgan, RT Daniel Faalele, CB Benjamin St-Juste, CB Jordan Howden
The college football season will forever have a small-sample problem, but it still has massive potential for narrative shifts.
Think back to September 2019: It was fair to call Minnesota an underachiever. P.J. Fleck's Golden Gophers were projected 30th in SP+, but they found themselves tied with South Dakota State after 54 minutes and trailing both Fresno State and Georgia Southern in the final minute. They rallied each time, winning the three games by a combined 13 points, but there were serious question marks, especially on defense. Minnesota entered conference play having fallen to 50th overall.
Fast forward to Nov. 9: After winning their previous four conference games by an average of 42-10, the still-unbeaten Gophers topped No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions at home 31-26 to move to seventh in the AP poll. They would lose to Iowa and Wisconsin down the stretch, but a win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl gave them their first 11-win season since 1904 and their first AP top-10 finish since 1962. The offense had gone from good to great (seventh in offensive SP+) and the defense from mediocre to good (26th). The narrative shifted entirely.
The level of brilliance Minnesota attained in October, and the fact it maintained some degree of it, makes the Gophers an awfully intriguing team in 2020. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca was plucked away by Penn State, 1,300-yard wide receiver Tyler Johnson is now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer and each unit on the defense has some attrition to work through. But quarterback Tanner Morgan, 1,200-yard wideout Rashod Bateman and nearly every offensive lineman return, as do strong cornerbacks in Jordan Howden and Benjamin St-Juste, an excellent nickelback in Coney Durr and a load of juniors and seniors who looked solid in smaller samples last season. Granted, a Big Ten-only schedule means Minnesota could be punished much more harshly for a slow start, but with a similar cruising altitude, this could be another remarkable season.
Morgan's emergence was incredible. The Gophers leaned heavily on a basic inside- and outside-zone running system, but they slapped RPO tags onto just about everything, and any time a safety or linebacker was in conflict or wrong-footed, Morgan -- a strong decision-maker with solid accuracy -- made them pay with slants and go routes. Bateman is one of the most explosive receivers in the country, and junior Chris Autman-Bell could be ready for a larger role. Mohamed Ibrahim and Bryce Williams are both capable runners, and the offensive line is utterly enormous (slightly less so if 400-pound tackle Daniel Faalele isn't at full health). But despite appearances, the pass is the key. And new offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. would be well-served not changing too much of Ciarrocca's system.
The defense needs a few new playmakers. Six of last year's top nine havoc producers are gone, including sacks leaders Carter Coughlin and Sam Renner and safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Chris Williamson. End Boye Mafe and linebacker Braelen Oliver could be asked to do a lot of attacking if they're healthy.