By Returning to Iowa, Will Garza Elevate His Status to the NBA Lottery? Would Oturu have?

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60's Guy

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My suggestion that Oturu should have returned to the Gophers was soundly booed by many.
He went in the 2nd round of the draft. I was told Garza would not get drafted if he stayed in the draft.
It’s pre-season, I’m suggesting Garza could be a lottery pick next year by returning to Iowa this year. I think that same opportunity was there for Oturu.
Lol, naturally I think I’m right, so I thought I’d document it and let you guys throw more darts
at the idea.
I’ll remind you if I’m right and hopefully everybody forgets if I’m wrong in 7, 8, 9 months. 🙃
 

I know this much - I'm tired of all of the U kids jumping ship at the first pro opportunity (Rickert, anyone?) while seeing so many stud players at other schools sticking around for what seems like an eternity.
 

Garza will never be a lottery pick, neither would have Oturu. They are not stretch bigs and have low ceilings. Look at Tre Jones, he stayed another year and was picked 41st, would have been a late first or better unless his hips would have failed a physical.
 

Garza will not be a lottery pick. I do think Oturu could have helped his draft position by staying, but not convinced it would have been that much of a difference, I am guessing he could have improved his contract by $500,000 per year if everything went well; progressed in skills and didn’t get injured. Assuming that was true it would take him two years just to make up the money he would have lost by not leaving. I would have loved to have DO back but I understand why he left. There is a lot of risk in staying, for a non guaranteed outcome.
 

Spottedmuskie said:
Garza will never be a lottery pick, neither would have Oturu. They are not stretch bigs and have low ceilings. Look at Tre Jones, he stayed another year and was picked 41st, would have been a late first or better unless his hips would have failed a physical.
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I agree with you that neither would have been lottery picks and that players generally don't improve their draft stock by staying in school (Buddy Hield is one recent exception I can recall). As far as whether they have low ceilings, we'll just have to see. Draymond Green was picked #35 but, as it turned out, he didn't have a low ceiling.

Unfortunately for players like Oturu and Garza, appraisals of players' abilities often are formed before those players begin their college careers. Maryland's Jalen Smith is a good case in point. He was a five star player coming out of high school. Like Oturu, he played two years before coming out. Although statistically his college career was very similar to Oturu's, he was drafted #10 in 2020 while Oturu was drafted #33. Were the evaluators correct in their appraisals of those two players relative abilities? We'll have to see but, given where he was drafted, Oturu will have to show more than Smith in order to stay in the league for awhile.
 
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Gopher Teeth said:
Assuming that was true it would take him two years just to make up the money he would have lost by not leaving. I would have loved to have DO back but I understand why he left. There is a lot of risk in staying, for a non guaranteed outcome.
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I agree with you that he almost had to leave. As a second rounder, he will not get as good of a contract as a first rounder. However, if he plays well enough to stick around for awhile, he may be able to get that second contract quicker than a first rounder. Typically first rounders have up to four option years on their rookie contracts while second rounders can get a new contract after two or three years.

He was drafted (through a trade) by the right team (Clippers) because they didn't have a 1st rounder.
 

There are always exceptions to the rule (Hield, or Obi Toppin) but generally the longer a kid stays, the lower he goes. NBA is all about potential, thats why guys like Patrick Williams (who didn't start and scored 9ppg) go 4th, and guys who are seniors go in the 2nd. More film means more time to find flaws. The odds Oturu or Garza boosting their stock this year is next to 0. Its pretty obvious that there are people on this board who have no idea about the NBA or how the draft work. There are GREAT college players that simply can't play in the NBA, its not a knock, its just reality. Look at the "next coach" thread, there was a suggestion we have 4-5 guys on this roster that will be drafted. That is laughable. I like our roster, but its just not even close to reality.
 

I'll answer your question,

Garza: Probably not. He had a near perfect year and would have to do it again. His game has limits and he has pretty much maxed them out. He cannot get better at this level than he has. He will not improve his stock.

Oturu: Most likely Yes. He was on a bad team and was dominant but due to circumstances was unable to play a position like the one he would play in the pros. A year with Rollins in the paint would of allowed him to display more of his game out on the wing and filling the lane on breaks. Defensively he could of shown how he could be an off-ball shot blocker providing help defense like he will be asked in Los Angeles. In short, he was stuck playing out of position at center another year would of allowed him to play PF and display more of his stretch game potentially moving him up in the draft if he could have done it effectively.
 

Oturu left at the correct time. With Garza and Cockburn in the league, he would be the third best center in the B1G.
 



Otis said:
I'll answer your question,

Garza: Probably not. He had a near perfect year and would have to do it again. His game has limits and he has pretty much maxed them out. He cannot get better at this level than he has. He will not improve his stock.

Oturu: Most likely Yes. He was on a bad team and was dominant but due to circumstances was unable to play a position like the one he would play in the pros. A year with Rollins in the paint would of allowed him to display more of his game out on the wing and filling the lane on breaks. Defensively he could of shown how he could be an off-ball shot blocker providing help defense like he will be asked in Los Angeles. In short, he was stuck playing out of position at center another year would of allowed him to play PF and display more of his stretch game potentially moving him up in the draft if he could have done it effectively.
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A lineup of Carr, Gabe, Gach, Oturu and Robbins would have put us in the national spot light. I wish Oturu would have stayed. Unlike some here, I think he can be a very good NBA power forward and deserved to be a lottery pick.
 

Unless oturu developed and showed a developed handle
And/or
made 3-5 3s per game
(Neither of which are things he would be, or should be, asked to do to benefit a college basketball team)

I think he pretty much maxed out his draft stock.

I haven’t watched Garza near enough to have an option of it.


maybe I shouldn’t have posted in this thread
 


Supposedly next year's draft class is going to be significantly stronger than this year's group, so I don't see that coming back for his junior year would have improved Oturo's standing. As cjbfbp already stated in so many words, once a college player has had their breakout season, as Oturo did last year, there are very few players that coming back to school makes sense for, in regards to professional aspirations.

I would imagine Garza's going to be a back end of the first round/second round pick next year, no matter what he does this year-I just perused a few mock drafts and Garza's name is nowhere to be found amidst the sea of incoming freshman and intl. players. If Garza wasn't a #1 pick after last season, I don't know what he'd need to do to make it this upcoming season in a more loaded draft and being a year older.
 



bga1 said:
A lineup of Carr, Gabe, Gach, Oturu and Robbins would have put us in the national spot light. I wish Oturu would have stayed. Unlike some here, I think he can be a very good NBA power forward and deserved to be a lottery pick.
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Are we certain that Robbins would have come to Minnesota if Oturu had decided to stay in school? I'm not so sure he would have.
 

Garza isn’t going to be a lottery pick. No matter what happens.
 

Early 2nd round is a good spot to be drafted. It's not like the olden days. 2nd round money is plenty good. Daniel made the right decision. If Garza is drafted period will be a win for him. He's destined for overseas (not a bad thing) if he wants to play pro and have a role.
 

I'd be pretty surprised if Garza improves his stock.

First, the 2021 draft is going to be really strong.

Second, Oturu was already on the older edge for draft picks. The only guy older in the lottery was Topin and he is a really athletic 4 who shot 40% from 3.

I wouldn't be shocked if Garza slips to the second round next season. I don't think Oturu improves his stock at all. When you couple that with the risk of injury, Oturu made that right choice. We shouldn't be annoyed with guys like Oturu or Coffey. They are local guys who turned down offers elsewhere to stay home and made the right decisions for their future.
 

Chico Gopher said:
Are we certain that Robbins would have come to Minnesota if Oturu had decided to stay in school? I'm not so sure he would have.
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Certainly interesting to think about but Robbins wasn’t even a slam dunk to play at all this year so he may have been planning on sitting out anyways and if he was planning on playing, we could have sold Liam on Daniel playing the 4 while he starts at the 5.
 

20 -30 years ago Garza would be a top 5 pick!
Today’s nba is all about the pick and roll and spit up shooters. Defenders with lateral quickness.

Mark Eaton, Duckworth, Oliver M, big country woukd have a hard time playing in today’s nba. Just like Garza.

QUOTE="60's Guy, post: 2097035, member: 3293"]
My suggestion that Oturu should have returned to the Gophers was soundly booed by many.
He went in the 2nd round of the draft. I was told Garza would not get drafted if he stayed in the draft.
It’s pre-season, I’m suggesting Garza could be a lottery pick next year by returning to Iowa this year. I think that same opportunity was there for Oturu.
Lol, naturally I think I’m right, so I thought I’d document it and let you guys throw more darts
at the idea.
I’ll remind you if I’m right and hopefully everybody forgets if I’m wrong in 7, 8, 9 months. 🙃
[/QUOTE]
 

No, NBA drafts on potential, not college production. Garza will be lucky to be picked in round 1, Carr if it all.
 

garza won't change his stock much either way. Oturu, unless he would've come back and showed he's shooting 3s at a 40% clip or throwing dimes passing the ball, was not going to change his status either
 

Garza will have to score 35 ppg this year to be drafted in the first round.
 

The Gophers have a better chance of winning the B1G then Garza being a lottery pick. They might have a better chance of winning the B1G then Garza has of going in round 1. Garza came back to school because he wasn't going to be drafted at all. The 2021 draft will be better than 2020 and he'll be a year older making his challenge of getting drafted that much greater. He's not as big as Oturu, doesn't move as well as Oturu, and hasn't shown the defensive ability of Oturu. He's going to end up having a great college career, but he really doesn't have position in the NBA. He's an undersized, offense first, center without standout athleticism. Throw in the fact that he's a Senior (look how few Seniors are drafted each year) and he has an uphill climb.

As much as it sucks for Gopher fans, Oturu was right to leave when he did. He probably had a chance to move up to the bottom few picks of round 1 with a great year, but that would arguably be his ceiling especially being a Junior. On the other side, if his development stalled, he could have fallen out of the draft entirely.
 

bga1 said:
A lineup of Carr, Gabe, Gach, Oturu and Robbins would have put us in the national spot light. I wish Oturu would have stayed. Unlike some here, I think he can be a very good NBA power forward and deserved to be a lottery pick.
Click to expand...

He would have zero chance of being a lottery pick next year. Next year's draft is loaded and Oturu would be REALLY old for that draft.
 

EG#9 said:
The Gophers have a better chance of winning the B1G then Garza being a lottery pick. They might have a better chance of winning the B1G then Garza has of going in round 1. Garza came back to school because he wasn't going to be drafted at all. The 2021 draft will be better than 2020 and he'll be a year older making his challenge of getting drafted that much greater. He's not as big as Oturu, doesn't move as well as Oturu, and hasn't shown the defensive ability of Oturu. He's going to end up having a great college career, but he really doesn't have position in the NBA. He's an undersized, offense first, center without standout athleticism. Throw in the fact that he's a Senior (look how few Seniors are drafted each year) and he has an uphill climb.

As much as it sucks for Gopher fans, Oturu was right to leave when he did. He probably had a chance to move up to the bottom few picks of round 1 with a great year, but that would arguably be his ceiling especially being a Junior. On the other side, if his development stalled, he could have fallen out of the draft entirely.
Click to expand...

This is really it. If he is All American, at best, he could move up a couple of spots. That's even a stretch given his age and how good next year's draft is. But it's plausible.

However, he could certainly hurt his stock by having any plateau, not shooting well, having any injury issues or the emergence of more foreign players.

He made the right decision.
 

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