Big Ten is WEAK and we have a shot.....

[gold04]

to win the conference. I think this season people are forgetting that the BIG 3 in the Big Ten are weak.

1. Michigan - It's obvious Michigan will not be back to it's old self yet. Just look at last year.

2. PSU - They will NOT be a top 20 team this year. You don't lose your entire defense and your 3 starting recievers who have started forever and think your just reloading. Jo papa had to rebuild at times in the recent past and this year he'll have to do the same.

3. OSU - OSU will not be a top 10 team this year. They lose their running backs, wide recievers, all their linebackers, and a shut down corner. I know Pryor is the next Messiah but their offense will struggle at times this year. Plus, losing all those linebackers will not help either. They will be better then PSU and Michigan but NO way will they contend for a National Title.

I was watching the Big Ten Network and even the commentators said no one in the Big Ten is going to compete for the National Title this year. Word out of USC is that Pete Carroll is sick and tired of beating up on the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. He wants out of the Rose Bowl unless it's for a National Championship. I can't blame him.

There is no team to fear in the Big Ten this year. Maybe we can sneak in there and capture the Big Ten title this year. I think we are by no means the favorites, but with a down year in the Big Ten we have a shot. I think in Brewster's first five years here, this year will be his best shot. The next two years we lose way too many players to be in contention. I hope we do suprising well this year, because the next two years will be harder to contend for the title.

 

[DiehardGopher]

You are speaking in too many what-ifs for this post to be held in any sort of seriousness. I am going to ignore your first three points since poking holes in that is not worth it. However, I will focus on your comments regarding the gophers. In particular, "I think in Brewster's first five years here, this year will be his best shot. The next two years we lose way too many players to be in contention. I hope we do suprising well this year, because the next two years will be harder to contend for the title."

First of all, I do agree that we have a good chance to provide some potential upsets this season if our O-line is better. However, to say that this the best chance we will have in the first five years of Brewster's tenure is just stupid. I'm sure everyone will agree that the talent on the team has increased from each recruiting class to the next. Why would that all of a sudden change making our chances for success in the next two years fall off? sure, after this year we lose Decker, our secondary and some other key positions but Brewster has focused on bringing in talent. As a whole our receiving corps will be much better than in the past, even with the loss of Decker. We brought in an Army AA CB in Michael Carter, we have developing D-lineman like Jewhan Edwards and Brandon Kirksey. We have talented depth and people will step up when spots open up. EVERY position is getting better. That makes for a better team, and good teams win championships.

P.S. sorry if some parts are a bit confusing, had a bit of a case of word vomit.

 

[Cmich Gopher]

Ill give him a little credit

If we're going to wait to finish top 1-2 in the big ten until we're favored to do it, it may well never happen. I agree that overall talent for our team will still continue to rise the next couple years but i can see gold04's point about this year being a great opportunity. The top of the big ten might not look this weak(I certainly hope it doesnt) for a long time after this year.

 

[Schnoodler]

It would be nice if this year was 'the' team, because the top of the conference is a bit weak. But we're just not that good yet. It does just add up to a bunch of what ifs. But wouldn't it be great.

I also disagree with the notion that we'll take a step back next year and we need to do something this year or else we've missed out. We'll be OK because we have many decent seniors, but our biggest pool of talent is in the under classmen. We only get better and deeper even with the departure of the large senior class.

 

[Bayfieldgopher]

Just like most BT teams, the Gophers have a ton of ??? as well.

For starters our projected starting OL is a bunch of newbies with less than 20 CFB starts between them. The depth should be good but the 2 deep are mostly past starters who Davis has set aside. Carufel should be solid but what about the rest? Stommes has started one game but I think he has a good upside. Wills? Your guess is as good as mine. I trust that Davis has made the right changes.

OUr D gave up something like 36 ppg its last 4 games. Sure we have a ton of veterans but the talent level must improve for us to be in contention the last Saturday in November. We should be solid in the middle with Small/Brown/Campbell but I doubt if any of them will be first or even second team BT. Will any of Brewster's vaunted D recruits step up? Are either McKinley or Jacobs game ready at DE? Who will start at DE? Our DB's had their moments last year, good and bad. We need consistent play in those spots and more big play capability.

Our kickers have never put their foot to the pigskin in a CFB game. The rest of the kicking game should be solid going into the season.

Throw in a new OC who has never put together a game plan although he has plenty experience working with those who have. I don't worry about Cosgrove in that department.

My best guess is for Iowa and OSU to battle it out with MSU, PSU and maybe the Illini on the fringe.

 

[DiehardGopher]

This coming season is a great opportunity with the state of the B10 and our talent on the roster, but it is far from the only opportunity we will have. That was my point.

 

[Section 100]

to win the conference. I think this season people are forgetting that the BIG 3 in the Big Ten are weak.

1. Michigan - It's obvious Michigan will not be back to it's old self yet. Just look at last year.

2. PSU - They will NOT be a top 20 team this year. You don't lose your entire defense and your 3 starting recievers who have started forever and think your just reloading. Jo papa had to rebuild at times in the recent past and this year he'll have to do the same.

3. OSU - OSU will not be a top 10 team this year. They lose their running backs, wide recievers, all their linebackers, and a shut down corner. I know Pryor is the next Messiah but their offense will struggle at times this year. Plus, losing all those linebackers will not help either. They will be better then PSU and Michigan but NO way will they contend for a National Title.

I was watching the Big Ten Network and even the commentators said no one in the Big Ten is going to compete for the National Title this year. Word out of USC is that Pete Carroll is sick and tired of beating up on the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. He wants out of the Rose Bowl unless it's for a National Championship. I can't blame him.

There is no team to fear in the Big Ten this year. Maybe we can sneak in there and capture the Big Ten title this year. I think we are by no means the favorites, but with a down year in the Big Ten we have a shot. I think in Brewster's first five years here, this year will be his best shot. The next two years we lose way too many players to be in contention. I hope we do suprising well this year, because the next two years will be harder to contend for the title.

USC won't be in the Rose Bowl this season. New defense, new QB, new kickers, and games at Oregon, Cal & ASU. I don't think they win the Pac-10 this season.

The OSU-USC game will be interesting. I hope OSU wins.

 

[Art Vandelay]

Wow, talk about lobbing a softball right in my wheelhouse! Just kidding LOL!!!

Even though Michigan is off the schedule, they absolutely humiliated the Gophs in the Dome. It was a lot worse than 29-6. I agree that they won't be a typical Michigan team, but they are still Michigan and will be able to jump up and beat anyone on any given Saturday. I figure they will be right there with the Gophs at 6-7 wins this year. They have 3 gimmes in the NC and have ND at home so that's 4 W's right there IMHO....

In order to win the B10, you need to go 6-2 at the very worst, but more likely 7-1 or 8-0. In order to do so, The Gophs must hold serve at home (very possible) and then lose at most only 2 of the following road games (at NW, at OSU, at PSU, at Iowa). Even losing only 2 of those might not be enough. Sorry man, but I just don't see it. They may very well lose all 4 of those road games and all home game with the exception of Purdue will be dog fights. They will need an incredible run of good luck to pull this off....

 

[GoldyPush-Ups]

Ignorance is bliss.


I just hope we win 8 overall games. (with the 5th hardest schedule in the country)

 

[Art Vandelay]

Ignorance is bliss.


I just hope we win 8 overall games. (with the 5th hardest schedule in the country)

OK, which is it? Is the B10 weak or do the Gophs have the "5th toughest schedule" in the country? It certainly can't be both. Who said it was 5th toughest by the way? Based on what? Last year's records? If PSU, OSU, and the rest of the B10 stink like Gold04 says, that SOS will plummet.

 

[EG#9]

One of the strangest groups fans in the nation

We have a guy post a topic about why he thinks the Gophers have a shot at the Big Ten this year and the first 7 guys to respond all disagree. This is the time to be optomistic, the first time the Gophers actually win the Big Ten (or even have a good season) in my lifetime will probably not come when the experts predict it. There is very little upside to every picking anyone but tOSU, PSU, or Michigan to win the Big Ten.

I wish we had a few more "homers" who believed every year would be the year. I know I certainly do not qualify as one, but we are all so jaded from never seeing a good season that we do not want to predict one. Its kind of like the big lead at Wisconsin last year, teams win an very high percentage of those games, but as a Gopher fan I was thinking: "this is going to really hurt if we find a way to blow this".

I hope this is the year, but I'd feel a lot better is Smith was still in mix at wideout, Brock was at safety, and Lipscomb was in the backfield. Every team deals with these types of issues, but the Gophers have just not been able to develop the depth (yet) to overcome them. If the Oline is much better than last year, I certainly think this team could win 8-9. A team capable of winning 8-9 could probably win 10-11 if all the breaks go their way...and the Gophers are certainly past due in that department.

 

[GoldyPush-Ups]

When did I ever give the slightest notion that I thought the B10 is weak?
I was referring to the name of this topic. I hope to god I'm wrong, but I don't think we have any legit chance for the B10 title barring a four-way tie miracle at 5-3 or 6-2. Not trying to be a hater, but we play at PSU, OSU, IOWA, not to mention a NU team that beat us at home last year. Yes, we're better, but how much? 8 wins would be a good season in my opinion. (Prove me wrong Gophs!)

And here's the schedule thing you seemed distraught about:

http://www.fanblogs.com/ncaa/008153.php

Just one opinion, and it's hard to judge right now, but you can't help but think our schedule is one of the 20 hardest in the nation.

 

[MNWolfman]

there is some truth to these comments. experience is huge, and it is on the side of the gophs this year. i wish we had a dominant running back to tie our wagon too, but we don't. all the other pieces appear good enough to compete, if a DE emerges.

if we get a couple bounced and the oline gels, i think the gophs could make a little noise this year. i sure would like a road victory at psu/osu/iowa in there somewhere.

section 100- which pac10 team has more talent than SC? no one, and it's not even close. even with former state player of the year Corp taking over...just look at that OL, RB, and WR corp...it's stacked with jr/sr 5star talent. same with the defense. they lost the LB corp, but all accounts point to a faster and deeper defense this year. chris gallipo will be a better lb than reyrey when all is said and done. the DL rotation is 10 deep. just sick talent.

 

[gold04]

The Gophers have the toughest schedule in the Big Ten, no doubt about that. Our schedule is a lot tougher then the one Mase had when he won 10 games. It's not even comparable. Yet even with the toughest schedule in the Big Ten the Big Ten is weak. OSU this year would be in BIG trouble without Pryor. PSU is lucky they have a senior quarterback or they would probably not finish in the top 25 this year. Michigan is still a year away from being Michigan. The Big three this year might be Illinios, Iowa and MSU. That big three is a lot less intiminating.

Art mentioned that you usually have to win 7 or 8 games to win the conference. Not this year. With the Big 3 down, everyone is going to be compacted together. If you win 6 conference games this year there is a good chance you will win or share the title. This year even has the slight chance of 5 wins and you'd share the conference title.

I'm NOT saying the Gophers are one of the faovrites to win the title, yet they do have a chance. With this team being the most experienced in college football after a 7-6 season, we do have a chance.

 

[denguegopher]

This is the time to be optomistic, the first time the Gophers actually win the Big Ten (or even have a good season) in my lifetime will probably not come when the experts predict it. There is very little upside to every picking anyone but tOSU, PSU, or Michigan to win the Big Ten.

I wish we had a few more "homers" who believed every year would be the year. I know I certainly do not qualify as one, but we are all so jaded from never seeing a good season that we do not want to predict one. Its kind of like the big lead at Wisconsin last year, teams win an very high percentage of those games, but as a Gopher fan I was thinking: "this is going to really hurt if we find a way to blow this". .

I think that we all hope that this will be the Gopher's year, just like we do every year. That's why we're Gopher fans. The other day I was looking at the Gopher roster. I concluded that we will have a pretty good athlete at most every position and told my wife that. She burst into laughter and said that I am always optimistic at the start of the season. As with most everyone on this page I hope that this is finally our year and I can tell my wife that she was very wrong about this year.

 

[DiehardGopher]

"We have a guy post a topic about why he thinks the Gophers have a shot at the Big Ten this year and the first 7 guys to respond all disagree."

False. I never disagreed that we have a chance to win the Big Ten this year. The part that I disagreed with was his statement that the talent on the team would drop off in the next two years. He said that this year would be our best chance at a Big Ten title. That is what I disagreed with. I think next year and the year after our team will only get better, not worse.

 

[tjgopher]

While I agree that the Big Ten probably doesn't have an elite team that will contend for a national title in 2009, I don't think that will make it "easier" to win a Big Ten title this year.

I believe it will have quite the opposite impact. I think the conference goes 9 deep in terms of solid, tough, hard teams who will be tough to beat every week. The Big Ten almost never has gone that deep in quality teams. There are no easy games (outside of Indiana and Purdue, IMO, and we don't play Indiana and PU will upset someone). So, that means going to places like Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State, etc. will be harder - top to bottom as a group - than in most years.

To me, in year's past, the team outside of OSU/Mich that won the title, usually split their games against those teams, then took care of the weaker teams in the league 5th-11th. This year, 5th-9th will be HARD games, particularly if you play those teams on the road. That makes it tougher to win a title, IMO.

Because of that 6-2 very well could give you a piece of the conference title in 2009. Can we go 6-2? That will be tough because of what I just said.

 

[grunkiejr]

I completely agree with the notion that the Big Ten is down this year. Everybody looks at OSU and PSU as being so far above everyone else in the conference because of the way 2008 ended but the reality is that those two teams lost more than anyone else in the conference. IMO the margin between the middle of the conference and the top of the conference will be tighter this year than last year.

Everyone is focused on PSU losing their 3 WR's but IMO people tend to overweight skill position players in their analysis. My primary concern for PSU is that they lost 3 OL (at least 2 were All Big Ten--maybe all 3) which doesn't get enough attention. Even though Royster and Clark both return neither seems likely to have as good of a season as they did last year because of the loss up front. The other concern for PSU is that they lost all 4 DB's and now they kicked a projected starter at CB off the team. They will be stout up front with probably the best front 7 in the Big Ten but they will be susceptible against the pass. Football is a game of match ups and Minnesota is a passing team so it wouldn't surprise me to see us win that game--but the line needs to give the QB time to get the ball down the field.

I think the player that OSU is going to miss the most is Beanie Wells. He was able to run effectively against 8 in the box and Boom Herron and Brandon Saine never showed the ability to do so. In the games Beanie missed last year the OSU offense really struggled--forget USC which is too obvious, don't forget they trailed Ohio 12-14 at home in the 4th quarter and needed a big play on special teams. TP actually became the starter largely because the running game was stalled w/out Wells in the game. Until TP shows that he can throw the ball effectively teams are going to load 8 in the box and make TP throw the ball down the field. OSU had a very small playbook last year to minimize TP's mistakes and it pretty much meant that he went almost exclusively against 8 in the box with man coverage on the outside and his favorite throw was the up for grabs heave in which one of his two future NFL WR's would run under the ball and make a play. Now Hartline and Robiskie are gone (and Small didn't report to camp on Sunday due to academic issues) which means OSU is relying on talented but inexperienced WR's. There is definitely the potential for the OSU offense to struggle and make things interesting. The defense should still be stout but IMO the offense is going to keep a lot of opponents in games this season which makes them a more beatable team.

On paper our schedule may rank as #5 in the country--using last year's winning percentage for each team--but we are playing the 2009 version of every team. Just like Michigan, Wisconsin (ranked #9 after beating Fresno State), and Illinois (coming off 2007 Rose Bowl) badly underperformed preseason expectations/2007 results in 2008 there will inevitably be teams that aren't as good as they are projected to be this year.

I think people should feel optimistic. We at least know that this is one of the more talented teams Minnesota has had in years. There are question marks (OL needs to improve, new OC, new DC, etc) but there are also potential pieces to the puzzle (Decker/Carpenter/Green may be top 2 WR combos in B10 if Carpenter is for real, Weber/Gray is unquestionably a top 4--#2 by ESPN QB unit in conference, Tim Davis has a strong track record at OL). People may question our defense but IMO the collapse at the end of 2008 was because of the futility of the offense and not defense--forced Mich to kick FG's instead of TD's, 35 pts by Wiscy was largely due to offensive/sp teams failures (2 turnovers inside our own 15 yd line + 4 pts off safeties + short field from safety kickoffs), held Northwestern to 17 pts. If the offense was more effective in those last few games the defense wouldn't have been on the field so much and the numbers would have looked much better.

I'm not one to predict a Big Ten championship--and as far as talent goes I think 2011 sets up to be the best combo of talent & experience in Brewster's first 5 years--but I do think this could be a much better team than people realize. Our road schedule does scare me but there isn't a game on the schedule where I think we don't have a chance to win and I couldn't always say that in the past.

 

[gold04]

No team

No team this year in the Big Ten is going to go 8-0 or 7-1. I will would be totally suprised if that happens. 6 wins and you'll at least share the title. I still think 5 wins for a share of the title is not out of the realm of possiblity this year.

 

[gold04]

If OSU did not have Pryor and Penn State their senior quarterback, these teams would not be top 25 teams this year.

 

[tjgopher]

No team this year in the Big Ten is going to go 8-0 or 7-1. I will would be totally suprised if that happens. 6 wins and you'll at least share the title. I still think 5 wins for a share of the title is not out of the realm of possiblity this year.

I agree, but that - in and of itself - doesn't mean it will be easier to win the Big Ten. As I suggested earlier in my post, the league has 9 quality teams, more than any year I can remember. Obviously, the league doesn't have that elite team, but it will stilll be no treat playing at OSU and at PSU, which we have to do.

 

[GopherFan75]

If OSU did not have Pryor and Penn State their senior quarterback, these teams would not be top 25 teams this year.

And Florida, Texas, and OU would not be top 5 teams without their QB's. What is the point in saying that? They do have Pryor and Clark so that is a worthless point to make.
________
Wheel Horse

 

[gold04]

Quarterbacks

Even with Pryor or PSU senior quarterback these teams definetly will not be top 10 teams like they were last year. They lost too many players even at elite programs to overcome those losses.

 

[Bayfieldgopher]

No team this year in the Big Ten is going to go 8-0 or 7-1. I will would be totally suprised if that happens. 6 wins and you'll at least share the title. I still think 5 wins for a share of the title is not out of the realm of possiblity this year.

Gold04. So tell me when the last time a BT champ or co-champ had 5 wins since the BT went to an 8 game schedule back in 1971?

If you guessed never you are correct.

 

[jdawghawk]

Preseason is definately the time for optimism for all fans.......but also realistic goals.

A few of the biggest indicators of a teams success are

1. A highly ranked D (top 10) the previous year which returns most of the starters.
2. A winning record the last 6 (second half) of regular season the previous year.
3. Returning starting QB
4. Winning bowl game previous year.
5. OL experience (number of previous starts)

The last 6/7 (or something like that) National Champions have all had these 5 attributes and in general are a very good indication or the following years success.

I agree with some of your points........especially regarding PSU...(I think you may have taken some of my thoughts regarding them from some of my other posts on other sites, which is fine).

There are going to be a few very good teams in the Big Ten.....maybe not elite but very good.

Look at those 5 indicators and look at the big ten teams and then check the results at the end of the year.

One team in particular which hits on all five points is Iowa. I'm not saying they are going to win a NC or even win the big ten but I do believe they will have a very, very good year even with a brutal road schedule.

My biggest question / concern for Minnesota is D. I just don't think you can outscore everyone, all the time, a solid d, which keeps you in every game is paramount at making a run.

Good luck to all and here is to the Big Ten Rocking out!

 

[grunkiejr]

My biggest question / concern for Minnesota is D. I just don't think you can outscore everyone, all the time, a solid d, which keeps you in every game is paramount at making a run.

The Gophers D is much better than people give it credit for. Their biggest problem at the end of the year was the lack of offense--particularly the running game--which meant that time of possession was tilting toward 35:00/25:00. The Iowa and Michigan game stand out because we probably had a combined 3 first downs in the first half of those games. IMO the Gophers defense should rank anywhere from 4-7 in the conference this year (assuming the run game is improved). They certainly aren't devoid of talent and the biggest question mark is replacing their pass rushing DE--I believe Minnesota tied for the conference lead in sacks in 2008 and was second in turnovers (by one TO to Iowa).

Top 3 (in alphabetical order): Iowa, OSU, PSU

Next 3: MSU, Minnesota, Northwestern

Last 3: Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin

I'm not really sure where to put Michigan or Purdue yet. Michigan has more talent on defense than they way the played most of last year. They also will start a freshman QB which could end up putting them in some bad situations. Purdue returns a lot on D and talentwise is probably middle of the pack but they have so many question marks on offense at the skill positions that one has to fear that they will put a lot of pressure on their D to keep them in games.

 

[jdawghawk]

Top 3 (in alphabetical order): Iowa, OSU, PSU

Next 3: MSU, Minnesota, Northwestern

Last 3: Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin


Very good points.

I'll disagree with you regarding Illinois. I would definately put them in the middle 3 if not the top 4 for this year......their schedule is not that tough but it is front end loaded for the big ten. They start off at OSU then have PSU at home, if they lose those two games and their is decention it could be a bad scene....but if they can squeek out one of those (at home PSU) then I think they only lose 2 maybe 3 for the year.

 

[Goldmember]

The Big Ten is never weak. Even when the rest of the country manages to find cause to rip on the Big Ten, the conference has 2-4 of the 10 best teams in the country. Over the long term, only the SEC can compare. The Big Twelve had a nice season- but overall is a sad joke and about to fall apart.

They say the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. This is true, unless there was a Big Ten game on the other side of the fence. In that case, the grass is soaked in blood and tears.

 

[Section 100]

Preseason is definately the time for optimism for all fans.......but also realistic goals.

A few of the biggest indicators of a teams success are

1. A highly ranked D (top 10) the previous year which returns most of the starters.
2. A winning record the last 6 (second half) of regular season the previous year.
3. Returning starting QB
4. Winning bowl game previous year.
5. OL experience (number of previous starts)

The last 6/7 (or something like that) National Champions have all had these 5 attributes and in general are a very good indication or the following years success.

I agree with some of your points........especially regarding PSU...(I think you may have taken some of my thoughts regarding them from some of my other posts on other sites, which is fine).

There are going to be a few very good teams in the Big Ten.....maybe not elite but very good.

Look at those 5 indicators and look at the big ten teams and then check the results at the end of the year.

One team in particular which hits on all five points is Iowa. I'm not saying they are going to win a NC or even win the big ten but I do believe they will have a very, very good year even with a brutal road schedule.

My biggest question / concern for Minnesota is D. I just don't think you can outscore everyone, all the time, a solid d, which keeps you in every game is paramount at making a run.

Good luck to all and here is to the Big Ten Rocking out!

You are correct, jdawghawk. The off-season is definitely time for optimism.

I'm not sure I agree with all of your indicators that lead to success. Here are my thoughts:
1. A highly ranked D (top 10) the previous year which returns most of the starters.
Very valid point.

2. A winning record the last 6 (second half) of regular season the previous year.
Iowa fans are really excited about this one. But who they played and when they played them is an important factor. Let's look at the last 7 Iowa games from 2008. And let's look at how those opponents finished their last 6 games:
Indiana 1-5
Wisconsin 4-2 (includes a 1-AA team; 3-3 in the B10)
Illinois 2-4
PSU 5-1
Purdue 2-4
Minnesota 1-6
South Carolina 2-4
The Hawkeye internet campaign to let everyone know how strong they finished has been a bit annoying. Yes, they did finish strong but the competition (save PSU) was soft. There's a reason Iowa finished in 5th place in a mediocre B10 conference last year.

3. Returning starting QB.
It depends if he's good or not. I think Stanzi is a serviceable B10 QB. I'm sure you disagree.

4. Winning bowl game previous year.
What does that have to do with the following season? Bowl games are exhibition games, that's all.

5. OL experience (number of previous starts).
True.

I see Iowa at 8-4 this year.

 

[grunkiejr]

Top 3 (in alphabetical order): Iowa, OSU, PSU

Next 3: MSU, Minnesota, Northwestern

Last 3: Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin


Very good points.

I'll disagree with you regarding Illinois. I would definately put them in the middle 3 if not the top 4 for this year......their schedule is not that tough but it is front end loaded for the big ten. They start off at OSU then have PSU at home, if they lose those two games and their is decention it could be a bad scene....but if they can squeek out one of those (at home PSU) then I think they only lose 2 maybe 3 for the year.

I was just ranking defenses.

Illinois defense is suspect. They lost Miller & Davis--by far their two best players on D. Now the hope is that Martez Wilson--a phenomenal athlete--can finally step up and have his production meet his athleticism.