Big Ten and the national rankings

[coolhandgopher]

With Illinois´beatdown of Mizzou last night, I think it would be reasonable to expect them to debut in the Top 25 next week and even if Ohio State gets beat by West Virginia, I would think they´d still remain in the Top 25. It looks like there could be 6 of the 11 Big Ten teams ranked next week. That Wisconsin is not one of them makes it all the sweeter.

I expect those numbers to diminish as we get into the season-except for Indiana and maybe Iowa, I don´t see any cakewalks when playing anyone else on the schedule and I anticipate teams to protect their home courts very well, which will lead to less presence in the Top 25. Even though that may be the case, it seems that the Big Ten has a great shot at 6 teams in the tourney, maybe 7, and an outside shot at 8 if Penn State and/or Northwestern defend their home courts well.

 

[Roy Christensen]

I was hoping that Bucky would take out Texas. It would make our wins over them this year more impressive.

 

[Gopherholefan]

...it seems that the Big Ten has a great shot at 6 teams in the tourney, maybe 7, and an outside shot at 8.

I
C'mon... seriously?? I think someone has been drinking a little bit too much of the BT cool aid.

I would say six maybe even a little optimistic, we should have 5 for sure though.

 

[coolhandgopher]

Minnesota (Louisville)
Michigan State (Texas)
Michigan (Duke, UCLA)
Purdue (Davidson)
Ohio State (Miami, Notre Dame, Butler)
Illinois (Missouri)
Wisconsin

All of these teams, minus Wisconsin, have at least one signature non-conference win over at Top 25 caliber opponent. All of these teams have a pretty sparkling record stepping into conference play with no bad losses (perhaps bad margins of losses ex. Purdue v. Duke, MSU v. UNC, but not bad losses). I´d say that if each of these teams finish at least .500 in conference, they´ll have an excellent chance of making the tourney. Wisconsin would be the one team that may have to finish better than .500 in conference to reach the tourney, and I´d never count out the Badgers.

Of course, one or more of these teams could fall apart come conference play, but I think for each of the above seven teams, they have to feel pretty good about their chances of making the tourney if they protect their home court during conference season.

So, tell me who you would keep out if they all finish at .500? I´d say Wisconsin has some work to do (9-3 non-conf. with 9-9 conference would put them at 18-11 with signature non-conf. win against Va. Tech), but otherwise I think these teams look pretty solid.

 

[Gopherholefan]

Coolhand....
1. Let me say that I am all for the big ten getting 7 or 8 teams into the tournament. I am a huge gopher fan and would love for the BT to get that many teams.
2. There is more that goes into the selection committee's selections process than just finding teams with .500 or above conf records and with 1 or more marquee wins. They also look at rpi, sos, last 10, etc.

Who would be kept out if they all go .500 or above in the conference season?
First, I will start off with teams that last year didn't make the tournament. (these are the teams that I remember that were left out last season, there are probably better examples out there and I just can't think of them)

If Wisconsin finishes .500 in the big ten, they would remind me of Maryland last season.
Maryland 18-13, 8-8 in the ACC, marquee win AT UNC. Lost first ACC tourney game.
Wisconsin would be 18-12, 9-9 going to BT tournament.

If Illinois finishes .500 in the BT, they would remind me of Syracuse last season.
Syracuse was 19-13, 9-9 in BE, marquee wins over GTown, and Marquette. Lost first BE tourney game. Illini would be 21-10, 9-9 in BT.

Lastly, Ohio St. last season. 19-13, 10-8 in BT.. wins over Purdue, Mich St, and what looked at the time to be a great win, Syracuse. They lost first BTT game.

Recap- I don't know who I would keep out. It's tough when you just say that team is going 9-9, but you don't know who they beat and who they lost to. I would also say that we need to first of all see how good some of these non-conference wins actually are. Who knows how good these teams actually are until they get into their conference play. Also, all teams I brought up that missed the tournament lost their first conf. tourney game. Also, maybe Selection Sunday could help us out with some other examples of teams that did and did not make it.

 

[MN Gopher Fan]

A lot of teams with the signature wins...but the big ten season is what'll determine it obviously...I'll predict 5 teams in because someone has to lose during the big ten season...


http://findthetornado.com

 

[coolhandgopher]

My logic was based on each of these teams protecting their home courts, or, stepping into the Big Ten season and saying, 'if we protect home court, we'll be in great shape'. I agree that Wisconsin, among this group, has to do more work than finish at .500 in conference to make the tourney. But if you consider the others, I think winning out at home would pretty much guarantee them NCAA tournament berths. Let's take our beloved Gophers for instance. They already have a neutral court win against Louisville. If they go undefeated at home, they will add Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, along with Northwestern, Penn State, and Indiana to their tally of wins. Those first six teams listed appear to be quality wins that the NCAA committee will look at and determine to be a good enough resume. I think that holds true for every one of the seven teams (except perhaps Sconny) listed above

Losses on the road to Indiana and Iowa probably would hurt that resume; that's why I think that if the Gophers went undefeated at home, they would finish at least 11-7 in conference. Going back to my original statement, I said that if these teams step into conference play and defend their home court (i.e. don't lose a game at home in the Big Ten) they'll stand an excellent chance of getting into the tournament. I stand by that statement, but it's all hypotheses at this point-if the Gophers let Michigan State and Purdue get away at home and win at Iowa and Indiana, that's not the 9-9 conference record I'm talking about. Defend Williams Arena, and the Gophers will be in the tourney, and the same holds true for each of the teams above at their respective home courts. I think it's possible this year-while the Big Ten is populated by many good teams, no team jumps out like UNC and Duke in the ACC or UConn and Pitt in the Big East. Maybe eight years ago, the Big Ten had a four way tie at the top, with each team sporting at least 5 losses; I could see a similar type of finish this year for the conference.

 

[Gopherholefan]

I'm all for it Coolhand....let's do this thing and it starts by beating Sparty!!!

 

[SelectionSunday]

Odds are 6 will be the number

Definitely 5, and 7 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Other than Badgers, I think Gophers have the weakest overall profile (thus far) of the most likely NCAA at-large possibilities (Ill, Mich, MSU, OSU, Pur, Wis). I'm excluding NW & PSU at this point until they prove themselves a little bit in the Big 10.

My first in-season "Field of 65" projection coming next week will likely include 7 Big 10 teams. ... Gophers, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue & Wisconsin. ACC also will have 7, the Big East 9.