Best Case/Worst Case: Big Ten

[GopherLady]

Per ESPN:

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/14731/best-caseworst-case-big-ten

This is what they said about the Gophers:

MINNESOTA

Best case: With the possible exception of Illinois, Minnesota might be the Big Ten team with the most divergent 2010-11 prospectus. There are positive signs, though. The Gophers made the NCAA tournament last season despite a handful of suspensions and dismissals. With the Royce White saga finally out of his hair and Al Nolen and Trevor Mbakwe apparently fully eligible, coach Tubby Smith should have a more focused and efficient group in 2010-11. Blake Hoffarber is one of the country's most underrated players -- he posted the nation's highest offensive rating and its fourth-highest effective field goal percentage in 2010-11 despite limited usage. Forward Ralph Sampson III is a stolid interior presence. Colton Iverson is the team's most efficient rebounder. Rodney Williams has Smith very excited, and Mbakwe should only add to the Gophers' interior depth. This is team full of returning players that managed to fight off distraction and land in the NCAA tournament in 2009-10. Smith might be a little biased, but is his belief in the Gophers as a potential Big Ten title team all that farfetched?

Worst case: Not to be Pessimistic Pete, but yes, it might be. The Gophers' returners are all solid, sure, but it's hard to see that team cracking the Big Ten's ceiling in the coming year. Part of that has to do with the elite teams at the top of the conference -- Purdue and Michigan State are both going to be very difficult to beat, to say nothing of Ohio State, Wisconsin, and even Illinois -- but part of that just might be the Gophers' own limitations. The late bubble run was gutty, but it came from an inconsistent team that lost its bonafide leader, Lawrence Westbrook, to graduation this offseason. More realistic is a solid, NCAA tournament-type season. Worst case is a finish below Northwestern in fringe bubble territory. None of those results would qualify as a surprise.

 

[GopherJake]

Blake Hoffarber is one of the country's most underrated players -- he posted the nation's highest offensive rating and its fourth-highest effective field goal percentage in 2010-11 despite limited usage

"Limited usage?" Didn't he lead the team in minutes? (I agree on the value assessment, however.)

 

[Section201]

Jake

"Limited usage?" Didn't he lead the team in minutes? (I agree on the value assessment, however.)

Good catch Jake. LOL

Maybe they meant Tubby's refusal to play Blake the full 40 every game!

 

[Monty519]

"Limited usage?" Didn't he lead the team in minutes? (I agree on the value assessment, however.)

He may have meant cause he didn't get plays run for him, or a ton of shots, or something like that. Otherwise, I don't know what he could have been getting at.

 

[ShowinGoldyLove]

I assume he probably means that most of the guys that have that efficiency average more than 6-7 shots a game and 27 min/game.

Just looking around the Big 10, most of the guys with his numbers in efficiency get at least 30 min and 10 shots/game.

Edit: I just went on ESPN.com b/c I was curious...anytime Hoffarber got 9 or more shots in a game last year, we were 8-1 record-wise.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

The Hoffarber comment - if his usage was higher (i.e., forcing the issue and trying to create more often), the ratings they are praising would likely have come down, which is what I expect for this year (a little bit higher usage, but hopefully just a small drop in eFG% and offensive rating).

Usage = (Pomeroy def) A measure of personal possessions used while the player is on the court. Simply assigns credit or blame to a player when his actions end a possession, either by making a shot, missing a shot that isn’t rebounded by the offense, or committing a turnover.

 

[station19]

"an inconsistent team that lost its bonafide leader, Lawrence Westbrook,"

What the!

Addition buy subtraction

 

[BigGopherFan]

"an inconsistent team that lost its bonafide leader, Lawrence Westbrook,"

What the!

Addition buy subtraction

I agree. Johnson was a leader, not Westbrook. Why would any intelligent journalist call Westbrook a bonafide leader. That's about as far from the truth as one can get. he was a solid offensive player, but certainly not a leader.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I'd put best case at 3rd in Big Ten & Sweet 16 trip, absolute worst case finish 8th in Big Ten (behind the Big 5 as well as NW and Penn State). See no scenario where we finish behind Indiana, Iowa or Michigan.

 

[OSUfan]

Don't sweat the Best/Worst case. That was done by a blogger who never played (or coached) college basketball. ESPN is outsourcing their analyst work to bloggers now.

 

[BballJones]

How does an article about the Gophers fail to mention Joseph? When Al went out, he was a savior for us and will only continue to be more vital to this team. I agree with many points of the article, but what a huge omission!

 

[NurumbiCongo]

I assume he probably means that most of the guys that have that efficiency average more than 6-7 shots a game and 27 min/game.

Just looking around the Big 10, most of the guys with his numbers in efficiency get at least 30 min and 10 shots/game.

Edit: I just went on ESPN.com b/c I was curious...anytime Hoffarber got 9 or more shots in a game last year, we were 8-1 record-wise.

Thanks for running the numbers, would like to see Blake get those 8-10 shots, 30 mins per game this year.

 

[Friend Of Tubby]

Best Case = 25+ W

Worst case = barely 20 W and NIT.

 

[WanderingGopher]

Worst case = barely 20 W and NIT.

Hard to see that unless we lose some key guys.


I suppose we could even project a "worst case" of < 15 wins, the worst case being we lose a starter to academic trouble, another to legal trouble, another to injury, etc.

 

[Jeshurun]

Well if we're going to say true worst-case scenario, it would have to involve the team's flight crashing en route to the first away game.

 

[OSUfan]

Well if we're going to say true worst-case scenario, it would have to involve the team's flight crashing en route to the first away game.

That's a horrible thing to say.

 

[gopherbadgerman]

Worst case = barely 20 W and NIT.

I agree, a cupcake NC schedule should lead the team to at least 20 wins. I look for 11-7 in the Big Ten and a tourney win. I would be happy going into the season with a top 5 B10 finish and a top 7 seed in the NCAA's. I think that is maybe not quite best case but for sure a tad optimistic. Worst case I could wee 7th or 8th place and a NIT bid. But for that to happen I think we would have to have injuries or something like that.

 

[march madness]

plays for the Hoff

He may have meant cause he didn't get plays run for him, or a ton of shots, or something like that. Otherwise, I don't know what he could have been getting at.

Plays have always been run for Hoff, especially out of bounds plays with the double screen at the freethrow line. Here was our problem, only Colt had the size last year to even set a good pick. Also teams know that Hoff is a 3 pt shooter so they overplay this and we haven't been effective countering with our bigs rolling to the basket for easy baskets to stop it. I am hoping with Trevor we will have a more physical team and better pick setters. Hoff might have been our best player at setting a pick, and our best shooter? Watch Michigan St., Purdue, Wisconsin they set good physical picks, it is important.

 

[Friend Of Tubby]

I agree, a cupcake NC schedule should lead the team to at least 20 wins. I look for 11-7 in the Big Ten and a tourney win. I would be happy going into the season with a top 5 B10 finish and a top 7 seed in the NCAA's. I think that is maybe not quite best case but for sure a tad optimistic. Worst case I could wee 7th or 8th place and a NIT bid. But for that to happen I think we would have to have injuries or something like that.

Not exactly a cupcake OOC schedule. The PR tournament has some very good teams. Some of the home opponents are possible NCAA teams in 2011.

10 W in OOC is a bare minimum (need), I think.

 

[Duthasmon Smith]

Thanks for running the numbers, would like to see Blake get those 8-10 shots, 30 mins per game this year.

Blake will have to get more aggressive offensively to get those numbers off. I really don't remember many times in 3 years where Blake has taken a bad shot. I'd argue too many times he doesn't move well enough without the ball and takes himself out of games. Still doesn't force things which isn't always a good thing because he's such a good shooter. I'd rather him force a questionable shot than many on the team.

Middle of the Pack would be about right if nothing goes to plan. I do wonder a bit where points will come from in the half court sets but the gophers shoud be top 3 in rebounding which will ease some of that worry. Not sure they can contend for the title without consistent pg play. If they do, I'll give them a shot.

 

[Go Gophs eh?]

i think it goes without question that devoe is the guy you want taking questionable shots, because he makes them. Like when he pulled up from deep, way deep in a players face in the BTT mich state game, those big time shots won us the game. or his contested stepbacks that usually find nylon.