An excellent summation of the Gophers on ESPN's Bubble Watch

[SelectionSunday]

Minnesota (17-7, 5-6)
RPI: 13
SOS: 3

Since Jan. 12, the Gophers have lost six of their past eight, including at Northwestern and at home to Illinois. So how should they still be in the field? Because their numbers are pretty much as good as it gets -- top-15 RPI, top-five schedule (Tubby Smith almost entirely avoided cupcakes), No. 12 noncon SOS, it's all there. When you look at Minnesota's profile in depth, and you compare it to actual bubble teams such as Villanova or Arizona State, you see the Gophers will have to do much, much worse to execute their apparent plans of season self-sabotage.

Highlighted is the key. Can the Gophers simply avoid a total face-plant down the stretch? With the resume they've built to this point that's all they have to accomplish to get in the tournament.

Stay tuned.

 

[GopherinPhilly]

The curious thing is that while we keep losing, the teams we have beaten this year keep winning so our RPI and SOS stay elevated. Look at the MSU win over MI. Imagine if we beat WI at home an IN at home. Our RPI could be a top 10 and SOS top 5 and we are at .500 in conference play come selection time. Didn't this happen to a Big East team a few years back...Im thinking Syracuse or UConn or someone, where they had a losing conference record but a top 15 RPI and top 5 SOS.

 

[tmvander]

Both posts make great points...there is also the case that college basketball is strange this year in that a lot of good teams are losing games. Look across the board and teams have been piling on some losses and some of those are to really bad teams (Kansas losing to TCU as an example).

As frustrated as I am in the gopher's play it is hard to imagine them still not getting in AT THIS TIME.

 

[SelectionSunday]

The curious thing is that while we keep losing, the teams we have beaten this year keep winning so our RPI and SOS stay elevated. Look at the MSU win over MI. Imagine if we beat WI at home an IN at home. Our RPI could be a top 10 and SOS top 5 and we are at .500 in conference play come selection time. Didn't this happen to a Big East team a few years back...Im thinking Syracuse or UConn or someone, where they had a losing conference record but a top 15 RPI and top 5 SOS.

Excellent example, and memory. You're thinking of Syracuse 2005-06. In Gerry McNamara's senior season it was generally accepted 'Cuse was a bubble team entering the Big East Tournament with a 19-11 (7-9 Big East) record. Then the Orangemen ripped off four straight to win the BET and ended up with a 5 seed. After the BET title run their RPI was 17 and SOS 2. Those numbers do sound eerily familiar.

 

[From the Barn]

Well, if we don't make it, we'll have (un)earned it.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Promises, promises

I have promised myself if the Gophers go 8-10 (or worse) and fail to get past the Big Ten tourney quarterfinals, I will not p**s and moan one iota if the Selection Committee leaves them out, even if I feel the Gophers are deserving of a bid (stacking up their resume vs. other bubble teams).

There are a lot of positively awful bubble resumes out there right now, and don't expect that to change much in the next 4+ weeks. So if the Gophers can't distance themselves from some of those jokers, my thought process will be, "We failed to capitalize on a great start (including wins over Michigan State and @ Illinois), and we made our own bed with a late-season swoon."

Hope I'm able to keep my promise, better yet let's finish at least 9-9 so it's a moot point.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

I have promised myself if the Gophers go 8-10 (or worse) and fail to get past the Big Ten tourney quarterfinals, I will not p**s and moan one iota if the Selection Committee leaves them out, even if I feel the Gophers are deserving of a bid (stacking up their resume vs. other bubble teams).

There are a lot of positively awful bubble resumes out there right now, and don't expect that to change much in the next 4+ weeks. So if the Gophers can't distance themselves from some of those jokers, my thought process will be, "We failed to capitalize on a great start (including wins over Michigan State and @ Illinois), and we made our own bed with a late-season swoon."

Hope I'm able to keep my promise, better yet let's finish at least 9-9 so it's a moot point.

Ha. I've done the exact same thing, I'm already backpeddling

 

[Monty519]

8-10 should be enough, but yeah, it's hard to be mad if you're a team that gets left out with that kind of conference record.

Let's just beat Wisconsin, I think if we do that, my gut tells me we won't have to worry about it.

 

[#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat]

We need FOUR WINS.

Doesn't really matter who we beat or when we beat them.


If we won 4 of our next 7 games, even a loss in the 1st round of the BTT wouldn't keep us from dancing.

If we win 3 of our next 7 games, and win just our first round BTT game, I think we're a shoo-in to get in.

If we win 2 of our next 7 games, we'll be hurting, considered a bubble team, but 2 wins in the BTT will show that we still can play, and all our losses will be forgiven, at least by the NCAA selection committee.


If we win 1 game from here to the end of the regular conf season, plus 3 wins in the BTT, that would probably get us in.

It would be physically impossible to get 3 wins in the BTT without beating 2 Top 25 ranked teams, and possibly 3 Top 50 ranked teams if we get matched up against Illinois in the 1st round. And it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility if the Illini were Top 25 by that time, and still low enough in the standings to play us in the 1st round of the BTT.

That would be a run that couldn't be ignored, considering our already impressive resume.


I've thought this over, and no matter how you look at it, 4 wins keeps us in the Top 25 of the RPI and no team in history with that high of an RPI has ever been left out of the tourney, that I am aware of. And whether we beat bad teams or good teams, won't matter. Beating the bad teams only just keeps us right where we are, not considered great, but considered good enough for sure. If we lose to the bad teams, but beat the good ones, they'll start looking at us like they do the Illini, who seems headed into the Big Dance right now without any complaints.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I've thought this over, and no matter how you look at it, 4 wins keeps us in the Top 25 of the RPI and no team in history with that high of an RPI has ever been left out of the tourney, that I am aware of.

There was one. Missouri State in 2005-06, #21.

 

[BleedGopher]

Charley Walters: Three wins, and Gophers are in NCAA tournament

Despite its disappointing play of late, the Gophers men's basketball team remains a decent bet to get into the NCAA tournament.

The Gophers are 17-7 heading into their game Thursday night, Feb. 14, against Wisconsin at Williams Arena. To make the NCAA tournament, they probably will have to win just three of their seven remaining conference games, which would leave them 8-10 in the Big Ten, college basketball's top league.

Besides the Badgers, Minnesota still has to play at Iowa and Ohio State, then has Indiana and Penn State at home, then travels to Nebraska and Purdue before the Big Ten tournament.

Three victories in the final seven regular-season games probably would result in a No. 7 or No. 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. A first-round Minnesota victory, though, probably would mean having to play a No. 1 regional seed. A first-round loss wouldn't excite season-ticket buyers.

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_22580742/shooter-now-ravens-aide-back-st-paul-calls

Go Gophers!!

 

[Winasota Gopher]

There was one. Missouri State in 2005-06, #21.

you actually read his posts... I see the name and keep on scrolling, and scrolling, and scrolling!

That said, your quoted text from #1Halphabet is true, our magic number is 4 at the most, I would even venture we could win 3 games and still get it in.

 

[SelectionSunday]

you actually read his posts... I see the name and keep on scrolling, and scrolling, and scrolling!

That said, your quoted text from #1Halphabet is true, our magic number is 4 at the most, I would even venture we could win 3 games and still get it in.

Just the key points!

Agree. I'm a creature of comfort, so 9-9 is my number for the Gophers. 8-10 still might be enough, but I wouldn't be "comfort"able with that heading to the Big Ten tourney.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Just the key points!

Agree. I'm a creature of comfort, so 9-9 is my number for the Gophers. 8-10 still might be enough, but I wouldn't be "comfort"able with that heading to the Big Ten tourney.

Whether its 9-9 or 8-10, if we end if that kind of record and go to the tourney, I don't want to hear any BS excuses if we lose in the first round about a tough matchup or underrated opponent or whatever. We had every chance to go 11-7 or 12-6 (still do actually) and get ourselves a fairly favorable first round matchup.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Whether its 9-9 or 8-10, if we end if that kind of record and go to the tourney, I don't want to hear any BS excuses if we lose in the first round about a tough matchup or underrated opponent or whatever. We had every chance to go 11-7 or 12-6 (still do actually) and get ourselves a fairly favorable first round matchup.

Despite the amount of posturing we hear on this board, I'm pretty confident no sane person will complain about our first-round opponent or seed when/if we slide in at 9-9 or 8-10. My stance has always been you have to win 6 (or 7) to win the whole thing anyways, so no use whining about who you're playing or what your seed is. Beat the team in front of you -- whether it's a high seed or a low seed -- or go home.

 

[macgopher]

Whether its 9-9 or 8-10, if we end .......We had every chance to go 11-7 or 12-6 (still do actually) and get ourselves a fairly favorable first round matchup.

Still do actually? I would be as happy as anyone if we went 5-1 or 6-0 down the stretch. But it's not realistic. Tubby is 15 games under .500 during the second half of the Big Ten season in his time here. Two more wins is more likely to be it, but the Big Ten tourney gives the team another chance to shine, a chance at a new season, etc. and a strong run in the Big Ten tourney can't hurt in preparation for the Big Show.

If Tubby and the team win more than two games down the stretch, I will be very happy to be proven wrong.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

Still do actually? I would be as happy as anyone if we went 5-1 or 6-0 down the stretch. But it's not realistic. Tubby is 15 games under .500 during the second half of the Big Ten season in his time here. Two more wins is more likely to be it, but the Big Ten tourney gives the team another chance to shine, a chance at a new season, etc. and a strong run in the Big Ten tourney can't hurt in preparation for the Big Show.

If Tubby and the team win more than two games down the stretch, I will be very happy to be proven wrong.

If we go 7-11 there won't be a "big show."

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Still do actually? I would be as happy as anyone if we went 5-1 or 6-0 down the stretch. But it's not realistic. Tubby is 15 games under .500 during the second half of the Big Ten season in his time here. Two more wins is more likely to be it, but the Big Ten tourney gives the team another chance to shine, a chance at a new season, etc. and a strong run in the Big Ten tourney can't hurt in preparation for the Big Show.

If Tubby and the team win more than two games down the stretch, I will be very happy to be proven wrong.

You think it is unrealistic to magically turn it on now but it can happen in the BTT? I know the BTT is where he has done it in the past, but I think the team could find a flame if they get their heads out of their backsides. There is no game that I think is unwinnable if we bring our best basketball.

Wis: home game against a rival where we lost by one at their house, and Vegas has us favored
@Iowa: a team we already beat when we had no where near our A-game with us
@OSU: they are tough, but not invincible, probably our hardest game remaining, but when we were on our game, we were playing at their level
Indiana: we almost had them on the comeback on the road, they have shown chinks in the armor
PSU: if the Nittany find the arena and put their shorts on right-side-out, they will have exceeded expectations
@Nebraska: we dominated them already this year
@Purdue: a worse record than us despite having the easy part of the schedule behind them

I am not saying I would bet on it, or think we will win all or even 5 of these games. There are just none that stick out as impossible. If we find our hearts again, we could go on a pretty good tear.

 

[bga1]

You think it is unrealistic to magically turn it on now but it can happen in the BTT? I know the BTT is where he has done it in the past, but I think the team could find a flame if they get their heads out of their backsides. There is no game that I think is unwinnable if we bring our best basketball.

Wis: home game against a rival where we lost by one at their house, and Vegas has us favored
@Iowa: a team we already beat when we had no where near our A-game with us
@OSU: they are tough, but not invincible, probably our hardest game remaining, but when we were on our game, we were playing at their level
Indiana: we almost had them on the comeback on the road, they have shown chinks in the armor
PSU: if the Nittany find the arena and put their shorts on right-side-out, they will have exceeded expectations
@Nebraska: we dominated them already this year
@Purdue: a worse record than us despite having the easy part of the schedule behind them

I am not saying I would bet on it, or think we will win all or even 5 of these games. There are just none that stick out as impossible. If we find our hearts again, we could go on a pretty good tear.

I think it's realistic to think we could still go 9-9. It seems doubtful that we do better. The year end surges in the BTT and last year's NIT seem to relate more to the players knowing that a loss means the season is over and they won't have to listen to the coach any more and a win means they get to play on. So I just have this feeling that they do their own thing a bit more and play looser. No proof- just my feeling that it goes back to confidence and playing freely. They play well in the non-conference - even against big time teams and they play not as well during the conference schedule and then they play well in the post season again. What else can one conclude?

 

[Mulligan]

I think it's realistic to think we could still go 9-9. It seems doubtful that we do better. The year end surges in the BTT and last year's NIT seem to relate more to the players knowing that a loss means the season is over and they won't have to listen to the coach any more and a win means they get to play on. So I just have this feeling that they do their own thing a bit more and play looser. No proof- just my feeling that it goes back to confidence and playing freely. They play well in the non-conference - even against big time teams and they play not as well during the conference schedule and then they play well in the post season again. What else can one conclude?/QUOTE]

That nobody has a real clue how this is going to turn out.