A Merry Christmas Field of 68 + Gophers working their way out of Weakling Wednesday?

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SelectionSunday

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Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, everyone! Here's our weekly “Field of 68” projection through Week #7 of the 2023-24 college basketball season. ... only one more (New Year’s Day) until it starts getting real with conference play.

Automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are listed first. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or – in the event of a tie – the best NET ranking.

WEEK #7 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played Dec. 24)
America East (1): Vermont (116)

American (2): FAU (6), Memphis (38)

ACC (5): Clemson (12), Duke (18), North Carolina (26), Virginia (37), Miami (61)

ASUN (1): Lipscomb (142)

Atlantic 10 (1): Dayton (22)

Big East (6): Villanova (31), UConn (8), Marquette (11), Creighton (13), Saint John’s (51), Providence (53)

Big Sky (1): Portland State (113)

Big South (1): High Point (103)

Big Ten (7): Indiana (101), Purdue (4), Illinois (10), Wisconsin (14), Ohio State (28), Michigan State (35), Northwestern (71)

Big XII (6): Houston (1), BYU (3), Iowa State (5), Kansas (15), Baylor (17), Oklahoma (20)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (65)

Colonial (1): Hofstra (94)

Conference USA (1): Liberty (49)

Horizon (1): Purdue Fort Wayne (86)

Ivy (1): Princeton (24)

MAAC (1): Marist (130)

MAC (1): Kent State (118)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (168)

Missouri Valley (1): Indiana State (23)

Mountain West (5): Colorado State (16), San Diego State (29), New Mexico (34), Nevada (36), Utah State (40)

NEC (1): Merrimack (178)

OVC (1): Morehead State (127)

Pac 12 (4): Arizona (2), Utah (25), Colorado (33), Washington (58)

Patriot (1): Colgate (148)

SEC (9): Tennessee (7), Alabama (9), Texas A&M (19), Auburn (21), Kentucky (27), Mississippi State (32), South Carolina (43), Florida (46), Ole Miss (56)

SoCon (1): Samford (91)

Southland (1): McNeese (54)

SWAC (1): Southern U (199)

Summit (1): Denver (146)

Sun Belt (1): James Madison (30)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (45)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (41)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Utah State (40), Saint John’s (51), Washington (58), Miami (61)

First 4 Out: Virginia Tech (50), Butler (55), Nebraska (57), Saint Joseph’s (62)

Dirty Dozen to Watch: Pitt (39), Cincinnati (42), Washington State (44), TCU (47), San Francisco (48), SMU (52), Texas Tech (64), NC State (70), Texas (67), George Mason (72), Drake (73), Arkansas (96)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): San Diego State (29), New Mexico (34), Nevada (36), Memphis (38), Utah State (40)

Moving In (10): Denver, High Point, Kent State, Michigan State, Nevada, Saint John’s, Samford, Southern U, Vermont, Washington

Dropping Out (10): Akron, Drake, Kansas State, Longwood, Prairie View A&M, Saint Joseph’s, South Dakota State, Texas, UMass-Lowell, Western Carolina

REMAINING UNBEATENS (3)
Houston
James Madison
Ole Miss

POWER 6 HEAD-TO-HEAD THROUGH WEEK #7
1 Big XII (30-23, 56.6%)
2 SEC (37-32, 53.6%)
3 Big East (26-23, 53.1%)
4 ACC (29-31, 48.3%)
5 Big Ten (23-25, 47.9%)
6 Pac 12 (13-24, 35.1%)

Note: Records indicated in below power rankings are vs. Division 1 opponents only

BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS
1 Purdue (11-1)
2 Illinois (9-2)
3 Wisconsin (9-3)
4 Ohio State (10-2)
5 Northwestern (9-2)
6 Michigan State (7-5)
7 Nebraska (10-2)
8 Indiana (9-3)
9 Michigan (6-6)
10 Minnesota (9-3)
11 Maryland (8-4)
12 Iowa (7-5)
13 Rutgers (7-4)
14 Penn State (6-6)

SUMMIT LEAGUE POWER RANKINGS
1 Denver (4-5)
2 North Dakota (5-5)
3 St. Thomas (5-5)
4 North Dakota State (4-6)
5 South Dakota State (3-7)
6 Oral Roberts (2-6)
7 South Dakota (4-6)
8 Kansas City (2-8)
9 Omaha (2-7)

STATE OF MINNESOTA IN THE RANKINGS
NET: Gophers #89, Tommies #175
KenPom: Gophers #85, Tommies #191
Haslametrics: Gophers #70, Tommies #164
 

SelectionSunday said:
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, everyone! Here's our weekly “Field of 68” projection through Week #7 of the 2023-24 college basketball season. ... only one more (New Year’s Day) until it starts getting real with conference play.

Automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are listed first. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or – in the event of a tie – the best NET ranking.

WEEK #7 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through games played Dec. 24)
America East (1): Vermont (116)

American (2): FAU (6), Memphis (38)

ACC (5): Clemson (12), Duke (18), North Carolina (26), Virginia (37), Miami (61)

ASUN (1): Lipscomb (142)

Atlantic 10 (1): Dayton (22)

Big East (6): Villanova (31), UConn (8), Marquette (11), Creighton (13), Saint John’s (51), Providence (53)

Big Sky (1): Portland State (113)

Big South (1): High Point (103)

Big Ten (7): Indiana (101), Purdue (4), Illinois (10), Wisconsin (14), Ohio State (28), Michigan State (35), Northwestern (71)

Big XII (6): Houston (1), BYU (3), Iowa State (5), Kansas (15), Baylor (17), Oklahoma (20)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (65)

Colonial (1): Hofstra (94)

Conference USA (1): Liberty (49)

Horizon (1): Purdue Fort Wayne (86)

Ivy (1): Princeton (24)

MAAC (1): Marist (130)

MAC (1): Kent State (118)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (168)

Missouri Valley (1): Indiana State (23)

Mountain West (5): Colorado State (16), San Diego State (29), New Mexico (34), Nevada (36), Utah State (40)

NEC (1): Merrimack (178)

OVC (1): Morehead State (127)

Pac 12 (4): Arizona (2), Utah (25), Colorado (33), Washington (58)

Patriot (1): Colgate (148)

SEC (9): Tennessee (7), Alabama (9), Texas A&M (19), Auburn (21), Kentucky (27), Mississippi State (32), South Carolina (43), Florida (46), Ole Miss (56)

SoCon (1): Samford (91)

Southland (1): McNeese (54)

SWAC (1): Southern U (199)

Summit (1): Denver (146)

Sun Belt (1): James Madison (30)

WCC (1): Gonzaga (45)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (41)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Utah State (40), Saint John’s (51), Washington (58), Miami (61)

First 4 Out: Virginia Tech (50), Butler (55), Nebraska (57), Saint Joseph’s (62)

Dirty Dozen to Watch: Pitt (39), Cincinnati (42), Washington State (44), TCU (47), San Francisco (48), SMU (52), Texas Tech (64), NC State (70), Texas (67), George Mason (72), Drake (73), Arkansas (96)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (5): San Diego State (29), New Mexico (34), Nevada (36), Memphis (38), Utah State (40)

Moving In (10): Denver, High Point, Kent State, Michigan State, Nevada, Saint John’s, Samford, Southern U, Vermont, Washington

Dropping Out (10): Akron, Drake, Kansas State, Longwood, Prairie View A&M, Saint Joseph’s, South Dakota State, Texas, UMass-Lowell, Western Carolina

REMAINING UNBEATENS (3)
Houston
James Madison
Ole Miss

POWER 6 HEAD-TO-HEAD THROUGH WEEK #7
1 Big XII (30-23, 56.6%)
2 SEC (37-32, 53.6%)
3 Big East (26-23, 53.1%)
4 ACC (29-31, 48.3%)
5 Big Ten (23-25, 47.9%)
6 Pac 12 (13-24, 35.1%)

Note: Records indicated in below power rankings are vs. Division 1 opponents only

BIG TEN POWER RANKINGS
1 Purdue (11-1)
2 Illinois (9-2)
3 Wisconsin (9-3)
4 Ohio State (10-2)
5 Northwestern (9-2)
6 Michigan State (7-5)
7 Nebraska (10-2)
8 Indiana (9-3)
9 Michigan (6-6)
10 Minnesota (9-3)
11 Maryland (8-4)
12 Iowa (7-5)
13 Rutgers (7-4)
14 Penn State (6-6)

SUMMIT LEAGUE POWER RANKINGS
1 Denver (4-5)
2 North Dakota (5-5)
3 St. Thomas (5-5)
4 North Dakota State (4-6)
5 South Dakota State (3-7)
6 Oral Roberts (2-6)
7 South Dakota (4-6)
8 Kansas City (2-8)
9 Omaha (2-7)

STATE OF MINNESOTA IN THE RANKINGS
NET: Gophers #89, Tommies #175
KenPom: Gophers #85, Tommies #191
Haslametrics: Gophers #70, Tommies #164
Click to expand...
Thanks and happy to see we’re on the right path 😃
 

I think there are 14 legitimate non-Power 6 at-large candidates heading into conference play. Obviously, some of these will earn automatic bids.

Colorado State
Dayton
FAU
Gonzaga
Grand Canyon
Indiana State
JMU
Memphis
Nevada
New Mexico
Princeton
Saint Joseph’s
San Diego State
Utah State

Not Quite: Drake, Liberty, San Francisco
 

As a point of reference, last season there were 5 non-Power 6 at-large bids:

Boise State
Houston
Nevada
Saint Mary’s
Utah State
 

St. Mary's is in an interesting position - they're only 8-6 with a couple of bad losses, but have beaten New Mexico and @Colo St. The analytics sites still like them a lot, though there's a big disagreement between T-rank (#29) and kenpom (#50) - T-rank has them as the 3rd best non-P6 behind FAU and Gonzaga. In a weak WCC, they'll need to go through their conference schedule with maybe no more than 4 losses.
 


formerlybis said:
St. Mary's is in an interesting position - they're only 8-6 with a couple of bad losses, but have beaten New Mexico and @Colo St. The analytics sites still like them a lot, though there's a big disagreement between T-rank (#29) and kenpom (#50) - T-rank has them as the 3rd best non-P6 behind FAU and Gonzaga. In a weak WCC, they'll need to go through their conference schedule with maybe no more than 4 losses.
Click to expand...
Good analysis. Gaels could be one of those teams that turn it around and get back in the picture.
 

I think the Gophers climb into the last 4 in / out territory after the first couple big ten games (winnable @ Michigan and at home against Maryland). The Maine game won't move the needle very much, if at all lol.
 

JZABR said:
I think the Gophers climb into the last 4 in / out territory after the first couple big ten games (winnable @ Michigan and at home against Maryland). The Maine game won't move the needle very much, if at all lol.
Click to expand...
Not really. Michy and MD are also towards the bottom of the league with MN. The needle would move, but with MN’s painfully abysmal strength of schedule, they have a lot of work to do before getting into the conversation.
 

formerlybis said:
Not really. Michy and MD are also towards the bottom of the league with MN. The needle would move, but with MN’s painfully abysmal strength of schedule, they have a lot of work to do before getting into the conversation.
Click to expand...
That's true. But even if they are on the bottom, a road win against a big ten team like the Gophers still should help. But like you said, the strength of schedule holds it back. Say we do win those 2 games after Maine, that's a 12-3 record 4 games into Big Ten play. That's a pretty good start, especially compared to last year's vacation in the big ten basement
 



In my 10-10 conference record preseason projection, the NCAA tournament likelihood stemmed from the results of the BTN conf. tourney in Mpls, which would be really exciting. The conference is gettable, esp. now with Illinois about to get scr*wed MN style in the Shannon incident.
 

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