2022 Big Ten Football Preview, Best Bets (Minnesota at 7.5 wins: Over)

BleedGopher

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per Reed:

Minnesota OVER 7.5 Wins (+100)​

It was a strange, yet successful, year for P.J. Fleck and the Gophers last season. The team put a scare into Ohio State in Week 1, but lost star running back Mohamed Ibrahim for the year in that game and lost 45-31. However, the team proceeded to go 9-3 otherwise with two of those losses coming at home to Bowling Green (4-8) and Illinois (5-7) by a combined score of 28-16.

The team succeeded despite being run-heavy without their best back (running on more than 69% of plays). Tanner Morgan struggled at quarterback as the defense held the team together, allowing less than 18 points per game and under 100 yards per game.

The foundation of the team, the offensive line, lost four of five starters from the 2021 team, but do retain their starting center and the team hit the transfer portal to pick up Power Five transfers like Chuck Filiaga (Michigan) and Quinn Carroll (Notre Dame).

Morgan will hopefully find his 2019 form under center with Kirk Ciarrocca back as offensive coordinator. Ciarrocca was at the helm in that 2019 season when the Gophers went 11-2 and Morgan completed 66% passes with a sterling 30:7 TD:INT ratio.

Are Ciarrocca and Morgan bound to get rolling again? The team has a fully healthy Chris Autumn-Bell (26 starts, 1,250 yards) back in addition to the other four top receiver from last season.

The defense may not be as good, but the offense should take a step forward with better health.

The schedule gives the Gophers plenty of chances to get back to 9 wins. The team should start 3-0 with wins over New Mexico State, Western Illinois and Colorado.

They will be favored at Illinois and massive chalk over Rutgers and Northwestern. The rest of the games are difficult, including the remaining Big Ten home games against Purdue and Iowa, with road trips to Michigan State, Penn State, Nebraska and Wisconsin. To get over this number, I'm asking for 2-4, and I see Minnesota remaining competitive with better health and better late game variance to flirt with 9 wins yet again.

At even money, I'll back Minnesota to go over this total for the fourth time in Fleck's six seasons.

PICK: Minnesota OVER 7.5 Wins (+100)


Go Gophers!!
 

David chimes in:

Minnesota will have its talented running back Mohamad Ibrahim back but the passing game behind quarterback Tanner Morgan must improve if the Golden Gophers hope to win the big games against opponents such as Iowa and Michigan. Minnesota's defense is expected to be strong once again and will help carry the offense by keeping games close until the end when the Golden Gophers could pull off big wins late. Look for Minnesota to finish over its projected 7.5 wins total.


Go Gophers!!
 

Emory Hunt was on CBS Sports HQ picking conference champions and dark horse value bets and likes Minnesota as the value pick. YouTube video starting at 1:04.

 




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