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  1. #31

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    Had the Giphy machine cranked up for "Up Front," so here's a look.

    via GIPHY



    Ball lands pretty much on the end line, so it seems likely it would have had to have been fielded at least six yards deep.

    JTG


  2. #32

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    The attempt was well short. It hit in the colored part of the out of bounds endzone coloring. Had Purdue put a returner back there, he could have easily caught and returned it.
    No problem trying the attempt. Coaches had to feel he could make it.
    Wouldn't have had a problem if they would have thrown a Hail Mary either. But, can Morgan get it that far? Maybe a good time to put Jacob Clark in to throw that one?
    With our WR group, I think we have a better percentage of coming down with it, with either Bateman or Johnson being able to go up and grab it or even be able to tip it to CAB or Douglas.
    We really miss Woz in a situation like that!!!

  3. #33

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    It's good that the coaching staff now know's Lantz max is probably around 44 now. Maybe Ryvers gets the try in another game when the distance is great. Having a kicker that can stretch into the low 50's has one the Gophers a game against Purdue before if I recall correctly.

  4. #34

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    The probability of making a Hail Mary from 30-39 yards is 17% per this link: https://blog.cougarstats.com/2015/09...able-are-they/

    Only the coaches and kickers know their probability of 50 yard field goal with a slight tailwind, but let's say it's 40%.

    Field goal: 3 points X 40% probability = 1.2 expected points
    Hail Mary TD: 7 points X 17% = 1.19 expected points

    It's really a wash statistically, so it all gets back to all the other factors a coach's gut tells him.

  5. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by RememberMurray View Post
    You'd be standing awfully close to the back line, since, well, y'know... that's where the ball actually landed.

    Just to be (crystal) clear: the attempt was definitely, positively, without question NOT "well short"... and it was not a poor coaching decision.

    Once again: it was 51 yards, not 60. I'd wager the kid would make close to 50% from there. I like those odds far better than a Hail Mary.
    I think well short is more accurate than you think. Based on the height of the kick and the crossbar, it probably needed another 10 yards to be good.

  6. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by PMWinSTP View Post
    I think well short is more accurate than you think. Based on the height of the kick and the crossbar, it probably needed another 10 yards to be good.
    Math is not on your side on this one

  7. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by Panthadad2 View Post
    Math is not on your side on this one
    Not all kicks have the same rise and run angle. That was a line drive kick with a low apex and it hit its peak short of the goal-line at a relatively low elevation. 10 might be overstating it, I would say 7 —- would have made it from 44. Not 45. IMO.


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  8. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by Panthadad2 View Post
    Math is not on your side on this one
    OK, humor yourself and educate me.

  9. #39

    Default Kind of flipping a coin

    Quote Originally Posted by Spoofin View Post
    Not all kicks have the same rise and run angle. That was a line drive kick with a low apex and it hit its peak short of the goal-line at a relatively low elevation. 10 might be overstating it, I would say 7 —- would have made it from 44. Not 45. IMO.


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    I think it was flipping a coin by the coaches, with only 2 seconds left and the distance on the field they must have thought the kick was the better gamble. There was risk throwing a hail mary and getting a sack fumble or injury. The kick could have been blocked too as it was hit really low and line drive like.
    I guess with 2 seconds left the coaches gambled that Lantz could make the kick. I didn't mind the try at least now they know for sure even with a tailwind the kicker has limitations for distance at this point in time.

  10. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by rockford View Post
    I have no problem with the kick, or who kicked it.

    The toughest part of being a fan is we don't get to see what happens in practice everyday. So while it's always fun to second-guess the coaching staff, we're doing so with a tiny fraction of the familiarity the staff has with the players. I can't imagine the staff was standing around at halftime going, "Hell, we should've had Big Leg Larry kick that one. What were we thinking?"

    You gotta believe they're simulating that exact situation in practice every week, if not every day. Which would lead me to believe they're putting the kicker out there who has shown to have the best chance of making that kick.

    No harm in speculating, though. That's part of the fun.

    JTG
    Thanks for stating the obvious. Pretty sure they know what percentage of his kicks have that distance and felt it was worth it.

  11. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spoofin View Post
    Not all kicks have the same rise and run angle. That was a line drive kick with a low apex and it hit its peak short of the goal-line at a relatively low elevation. 10 might be overstating it, I would say 7 —- would have made it from 44. Not 45. IMO.


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    You can add velocity as well.

  12. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by gopherdudepart2 View Post
    I think it was flipping a coin, there was risk throwing a hail mary and getting a sack fumble or injury. The kick could have been blocked too as it was hit really low and line drive like.
    I guess with 2 seconds left the coaches gambled that Lantz could make the kick. I didn't mind the try at least now they know for sure even with a tailwind the kicker has limitations for distance at this point in time.
    Fair enough. At this point I’m more interested in the idea that the kick wasn’t well short and that the returner would have had to be out of bounds to field it.


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  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Panthadad2 View Post
    The probability of making a Hail Mary from 30-39 yards is 17% per this link: https://blog.cougarstats.com/2015/09...able-are-they/

    Only the coaches and kickers know their probability of 50 yard field goal with a slight tailwind, but let's say it's 40%.

    Field goal: 3 points X 40% probability = 1.2 expected points
    Hail Mary TD: 7 points X 17% = 1.19 expected points

    It's really a wash statistically, so it all gets back to all the other factors a coach's gut tells him.
    The TD numbers are very skewed in this data set as it ignores any and all situations where the pass is not thrown (ie sack or QB scramble) which would make the expected points much lower. Additionally, if you're trying to get game theory on this, you also need to account for probability of negative outcomes. Interesting numbers he has available however

  14. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by Panthadad2 View Post
    The probability of making a Hail Mary from 30-39 yards is 17% per this link: https://blog.cougarstats.com/2015/09...able-are-they/

    Only the coaches and kickers know their probability of 50 yard field goal with a slight tailwind, but let's say it's 40%.

    Field goal: 3 points X 40% probability = 1.2 expected points
    Hail Mary TD: 7 points X 17% = 1.19 expected points

    It's really a wash statistically, so it all gets back to all the other factors a coach's gut tells him.
    That does not factor in the percentages of getting one blocked and returned compared to an interception/fumble return.

    It also does not factor in potential PI.

    But generally, yeah, it's a wash.

    I probably would not have attempted the kick, I was still gun-shy after the last game. I didn't absolutely hate the call though.

  15. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob_Loblaw View Post
    That does not factor in the percentages of getting one blocked and returned compared to an interception/fumble return.

    It also does not factor in potential PI.

    But generally, yeah, it's a wash.

    I probably would not have attempted the kick, I was still gun-shy after the last game. I didn't absolutely hate the call though.
    I was gun shy, but I'm of the theory that getting a kick off, and having it be unsuccessful is still better for the kicker, than if the last FG kick he attempted was blocked and returned for a TD.

    So at this point, it's bringing in the emotional, mental, and psychological effects of a game scenario into play, and evaluating whether a kickers past performance on a previous kick affects their confidence on their next kick.

    PJ would say past events don't dictate future behaviors, but with Minnesota kickers, I'm believe some do have psychological pressures to deal with based off previous kicks.
    "Do Not Be Afraid to Be A Legend"

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