FG attempt - end of first half

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Ball lands pretty much on the end line, so it seems likely it would have had to have been fielded at least six yards deep.

JTG
 

The attempt was well short. It hit in the colored part of the out of bounds endzone coloring. Had Purdue put a returner back there, he could have easily caught and returned it.
No problem trying the attempt. Coaches had to feel he could make it.
Wouldn't have had a problem if they would have thrown a Hail Mary either. But, can Morgan get it that far? :eek: Maybe a good time to put Jacob Clark in to throw that one?
With our WR group, I think we have a better percentage of coming down with it, with either Bateman or Johnson being able to go up and grab it or even be able to tip it to CAB or Douglas.
We really miss Woz in a situation like that!!!
 

It's good that the coaching staff now know's Lantz max is probably around 44 now. Maybe Ryvers gets the try in another game when the distance is great. Having a kicker that can stretch into the low 50's has one the Gophers a game against Purdue before if I recall correctly.
 

The probability of making a Hail Mary from 30-39 yards is 17% per this link: https://blog.cougarstats.com/2015/09/10/hail-marys-just-how-improbable-are-they/

Only the coaches and kickers know their probability of 50 yard field goal with a slight tailwind, but let's say it's 40%.

Field goal: 3 points X 40% probability = 1.2 expected points
Hail Mary TD: 7 points X 17% = 1.19 expected points

It's really a wash statistically, so it all gets back to all the other factors a coach's gut tells him.
 

RememberMurray said:
You'd be standing awfully close to the back line, since, well, y'know... that's where the ball actually landed.

Just to be (crystal) clear: the attempt was definitely, positively, without question NOT "well short"... and it was not a poor coaching decision.

Once again: it was 51 yards, not 60. I'd wager the kid would make close to 50% from there. I like those odds far better than a Hail Mary.
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I think well short is more accurate than you think. Based on the height of the kick and the crossbar, it probably needed another 10 yards to be good.
 


PMWinSTP said:
I think well short is more accurate than you think. Based on the height of the kick and the crossbar, it probably needed another 10 yards to be good.
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Math is not on your side on this one :)
 

Panthadad2 said:
Math is not on your side on this one :)
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Not all kicks have the same rise and run angle. That was a line drive kick with a low apex and it hit its peak short of the goal-line at a relatively low elevation. 10 might be overstating it, I would say 7 —- would have made it from 44. Not 45. IMO.


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Kind of flipping a coin

Spoofin said:
Not all kicks have the same rise and run angle. That was a line drive kick with a low apex and it hit its peak short of the goal-line at a relatively low elevation. 10 might be overstating it, I would say 7 —- would have made it from 44. Not 45. IMO.


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I think it was flipping a coin by the coaches, with only 2 seconds left and the distance on the field they must have thought the kick was the better gamble. There was risk throwing a hail mary and getting a sack fumble or injury. The kick could have been blocked too as it was hit really low and line drive like.
I guess with 2 seconds left the coaches gambled that Lantz could make the kick. I didn't mind the try at least now they know for sure even with a tailwind the kicker has limitations for distance at this point in time.
 



rockford said:
I have no problem with the kick, or who kicked it.

The toughest part of being a fan is we don't get to see what happens in practice everyday. So while it's always fun to second-guess the coaching staff, we're doing so with a tiny fraction of the familiarity the staff has with the players. I can't imagine the staff was standing around at halftime going, "Hell, we should've had Big Leg Larry kick that one. What were we thinking?"

You gotta believe they're simulating that exact situation in practice every week, if not every day. Which would lead me to believe they're putting the kicker out there who has shown to have the best chance of making that kick.

No harm in speculating, though. That's part of the fun.

JTG
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Thanks for stating the obvious. Pretty sure they know what percentage of his kicks have that distance and felt it was worth it.
 

Spoofin said:
Not all kicks have the same rise and run angle. That was a line drive kick with a low apex and it hit its peak short of the goal-line at a relatively low elevation. 10 might be overstating it, I would say 7 —- would have made it from 44. Not 45. IMO.


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You can add velocity as well.
 

gopherdudepart2 said:
I think it was flipping a coin, there was risk throwing a hail mary and getting a sack fumble or injury. The kick could have been blocked too as it was hit really low and line drive like.
I guess with 2 seconds left the coaches gambled that Lantz could make the kick. I didn't mind the try at least now they know for sure even with a tailwind the kicker has limitations for distance at this point in time.
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Fair enough. At this point I’m more interested in the idea that the kick wasn’t well short and that the returner would have had to be out of bounds to field it.


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Panthadad2 said:
The probability of making a Hail Mary from 30-39 yards is 17% per this link: https://blog.cougarstats.com/2015/09/10/hail-marys-just-how-improbable-are-they/

Only the coaches and kickers know their probability of 50 yard field goal with a slight tailwind, but let's say it's 40%.

Field goal: 3 points X 40% probability = 1.2 expected points
Hail Mary TD: 7 points X 17% = 1.19 expected points

It's really a wash statistically, so it all gets back to all the other factors a coach's gut tells him.
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The TD numbers are very skewed in this data set as it ignores any and all situations where the pass is not thrown (ie sack or QB scramble) which would make the expected points much lower. Additionally, if you're trying to get game theory on this, you also need to account for probability of negative outcomes. Interesting numbers he has available however
 



Panthadad2 said:
The probability of making a Hail Mary from 30-39 yards is 17% per this link: https://blog.cougarstats.com/2015/09/10/hail-marys-just-how-improbable-are-they/

Only the coaches and kickers know their probability of 50 yard field goal with a slight tailwind, but let's say it's 40%.

Field goal: 3 points X 40% probability = 1.2 expected points
Hail Mary TD: 7 points X 17% = 1.19 expected points

It's really a wash statistically, so it all gets back to all the other factors a coach's gut tells him.
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That does not factor in the percentages of getting one blocked and returned compared to an interception/fumble return.

It also does not factor in potential PI.

But generally, yeah, it's a wash.

I probably would not have attempted the kick, I was still gun-shy after the last game. I didn't absolutely hate the call though.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
That does not factor in the percentages of getting one blocked and returned compared to an interception/fumble return.

It also does not factor in potential PI.

But generally, yeah, it's a wash.

I probably would not have attempted the kick, I was still gun-shy after the last game. I didn't absolutely hate the call though.
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I was gun shy, but I'm of the theory that getting a kick off, and having it be unsuccessful is still better for the kicker, than if the last FG kick he attempted was blocked and returned for a TD.

So at this point, it's bringing in the emotional, mental, and psychological effects of a game scenario into play, and evaluating whether a kickers past performance on a previous kick affects their confidence on their next kick.

PJ would say past events don't dictate future behaviors, but with Minnesota kickers, I'm believe some do have psychological pressures to deal with based off previous kicks.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
That does not factor in the percentages of getting one blocked and returned compared to an interception/fumble return.

It also does not factor in potential PI.

But generally, yeah, it's a wash.

I probably would not have attempted the kick, I was still gun-shy after the last game. I didn't absolutely hate the call though.
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GSU had a strip sack for a touchdown too in the last game, so there's that. In the end, the coaches had a matter of seconds to pull the team together for one play. I'm fine with it. Would have been fine with a hail mary too.
 

I kind of wanted to see the fake knee, Bomb to Bateman.
 

factors - this was at the end of the first half in a game where the Gophers had a lead. Any points in that situation would be more of a gift than a necessity.

My question - what decision would they make if it was at the end of the game, and the Gophers were down by 2 or 3 points? Do they still try the FG? Do they try with a different kicker? Or do they run the Hail Mary? The situation potentially changes the decision.

It would be interesting to see what the coaches do if it was a potential game-winning - or game-losing situation.
 

I want a coach with Woody Hayes' mentality. "Why did you go for 2 Woody? Cause I couldn't go for 3!"

 

short ornery norwegian said:
factors - this was at the end of the first half in a game where the Gophers had a lead. Any points in that situation would be more of a gift than a necessity.

My question - what decision would they make if it was at the end of the game, and the Gophers were down by 2 or 3 points? Do they still try the FG? Do they try with a different kicker? Or do they run the Hail Mary? The situation potentially changes the decision.

It would be interesting to see what the coaches do if it was a potential game-winning - or game-losing situation.
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hope we don't have to find out and we're always winning :)
 

I guess the question was, do we have a better chance to make that FG or convert a hail mary? He certainly didn't have enough on that ball to get over the cross bar, but maybe he didn't get all of it.
 

Human nature is interesting...

You can show people video evidence, the ball landing on the back line of the end zone.

Some people look at that and say it was pretty close, and any attempt to return it would have been problematic (I'm one of those people).

Some people say it was "well short" and "easily returnable".

Some say it was 6 yards short.

Some say he would have needed another 10 (!) yards to make the FG.

Some say it serves as proof the kid can't kick it more than 44 yards. "Now the coaches know... ".

My, My. Many varying conclusions, and so vastly different from each other!

I wonder if any of the 'Hail Mary advocates' are the same folks who maintain the story that Tanner Morgan is a noodle-arm. I also wonder if we have trolls in our midst, who are trying to garner a strong reaction on the board.

It's great to be 4-0.
 

RememberMurray said:
Human nature is interesting...

You can show people video evidence, the ball landing on the back line of the end zone.

Some people look at that and say it was pretty close, and any attempt to return it would have been problematic (I'm one of those people).

Some people say it was "well short" and "easily returnable".

Some say it was 6 yards short.

Some say he would have needed another 10 (!) yards to make the FG.

Some say it serves as proof the kid can't kick it more than 44 yards. "Now the coaches know... ".

My, My. Many varying conclusions, and so vastly different from each other!

I wonder if any of the 'Hail Mary advocates' are the same folks who maintain the story that Tanner Morgan is a noodle-arm. I also wonder if we have trolls in our midst, who are trying to garner a strong reaction on the board.

It's great to be 4-0.
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Have you ever studied physics? The ball needs to be at least 10' in the air at the time it hits 51 yards of horizontal distance just to clear the crossbar. I don't have the expertise to calculate exactly (not to mention that we don't know the parameters of velocity, maximum height, launch angle, etc.), but a decent guess at the total distance needed to be 10' off the ground at 51 yards is at least 58 yards, if not longer. Since the ball landed almost exactly at 51 yards, it wasn't even close to long enough to be good, as many have accurately stated. It was, in fact, well short.

Moreover, a potential returner is likely to be somewhere in the range of 5'8" to 6'4" tall. If the ball traveled exactly 51 yards, they could quite comfortably stand several feet (if not yards) forward from the back boundary of the endzone and catch the ball at a comfortable height.
 

No, I haven't really 'studied physics'. I just saw the ball land on the end line.

I'm the unadorned, plainspoken type. Glad you're here to make me a better person. Thanks!
 

Just to wonder...what if he hit it wrong and that’s why it’s short? Maybe in practice or warmups he has been hitting from there. Would be curious if anyone saw at practice what he’s capable of.
 

If he has shown he could potentially make one from there, good call. If he has never shown it, then probably not a great choice. I have no clue what he has or hasn't shown in practice as far as his range.
 

RememberMurray said:
Human nature is interesting...

You can show people video evidence, the ball landing on the back line of the end zone.

Some people look at that and say it was pretty close, and any attempt to return it would have been problematic (I'm one of those people).

Some people say it was "well short" and "easily returnable".

Some say it was 6 yards short.

Some say he would have needed another 10 (!) yards to make the FG.

Some say it serves as proof the kid can't kick it more than 44 yards. "Now the coaches know... ".

My, My. Many varying conclusions, and so vastly different from each other!

I wonder if any of the 'Hail Mary advocates' are the same folks who maintain the story that Tanner Morgan is a noodle-arm. I also wonder if we have trolls in our midst, who are trying to garner a strong reaction on the board.

It's great to be 4-0.
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Dude. I was right there. I saw it with my own eyes. It wasn’t close. Unless you think 5+ (I’m still going with 7) yards is close.

It was absolutely returnable. Do you think it dropped perpendicular to the ground when it landed on the end line? You are the only one that I have seen that doesn’t think it was returnable. This isn’t hackysack, they can use their hands.

Apparently these views make me a troll? Come on.




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die hard gopher said:
He made a 50 yard FG in high school. So while he doesn't have the strongest leg, he has shown he can hit from that type of distance, at least occasionally. Maybe has has hit those in practice before.

It's a no lose situation. You get to see what you have in your kicker in an in game situation. Worst case, he misses and you go in the half with a big lead, best case you build some confidence for your kicker, get some more practice and put 3 points on the board. You also get to amend what happened last FG with the block.
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I agree with this.

Just because the kick was short doesn't mean he doesn't have the leg; pretty safe bet that he didn't catch all of it. I have no clue what his leg is, but I would be absolutely shocked if he didn't have the leg for that kick in what appeared to be ideal conditions.

As far as someone else trying the kick, there were a lot more bad things that could happen with someone else going out for that attempt. MUCH more likely to be a mis-hit kick, blocked, ran back, etc. Plenty of bad things that can happen throwing a guy out there who's never attempted a kick at the B1G level before.

Low risk, high upside move. No problem with it whatsoever.
 

NotAFanOfBecky said:
Just to wonder...what if he hit it wrong and that’s why it’s short? Maybe in practice or warmups he has been hitting from there. Would be curious if anyone saw at practice what he’s capable of.
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Ding, ding, ding, ding!! Winner!!

You hit that ball a half-inch to inch low on the ball, it flies higher, spins faster, and misses the sweet spot. He didn't catch all of it, plain and simple. I'm amazed at the folks here who honestly think the staff would trot him out there knowing that his range was 45 yards. WTF.
 

Spoofin said:
Dude. I was right there. I saw it with my own eyes. It wasn’t close. Unless you think 5+ (I’m still going with 7) yards is close.

It was absolutely returnable. Do you think it dropped perpendicular to the ground when it landed on the end line? You are the only one that I have seen that doesn’t think it was returnable. This isn’t hackysack, they can use their hands.

Apparently these views make me a troll? Come on.
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Okay, 'dude'. I'll disregard the video.

It was actually 7-10 yards short.

Bad coaching decision.

It could have easily been returned it for a TD. Easily! We really, really lucked out. What was Fleck thinking?
 

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