Sagarin Predictions: Week 10

Things went more-or-less as expected this weekend, as the Gophers took care of Indiana by a one-score margin at home. That brings Minnesota's record to 2-2 in "toss-up" games for the year (wins over Fresno and Indiana, losses to Maryland and Nebraska). If the Gophers can maintain a .500 record in those toss-up games, there's a good chance they'll make it to six wins - as of now, both Purdue and Northwestern are in that camp, are likely to remain there if the Gophers take care of business on Saturday, and both games are at TCF.

First thing's first, though - Illinois. Since the beginning of the season this has been the Gophers' most consistent "likely win." Heading into the game as double-digit favorites, it looks like the best chance for Minnesota to win the rest of the way and would set up for a potentially exciting finish to the season. So far the Gophers are 2-0 in "likely win" games this year, outperforming the formula both times (against NMSU and Miami). I would take another performance like that on Saturday for sure.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa L (Predicted +9; Actual +17)
at Ohio State L (Predicted +26.5; Actual +16)
at Nebraska L (Predicted -4.5; Actual +25)
vs Indiana W (Predicted -3; Actual -7)
at Illinois -10.5
vs Purdue +6.5
vs Northwestern +2
at Wisconsin +13

Final record: 5-7 (2-7)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Wisconsin

Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula. I have also included some likely destinations for teams should they finish as predicted.

B1G West Predicted Standings
Iowa: 7-2 Maybe NY6
Northwestern: 7-2
Purdue: 6-3
Wisconsin: 5-4
Nebraska: 2-7
Minnesota: 2-7
Illinois: 1-8

B1G East Predicted Standings
Ohio St: 8-1 Likely NY6 / Maybe CFP
Michigan: 8-1 Likely NY6 / Maybe CFP
Michigan St: 6-3
Penn St: 6-3
Maryland: 4-5
Indiana: 1-8
Rutgers: 0-9

Crossover Games
West: 9-12
East: 12-9

Interesting Notes
- Iowa notable games remaining: -4.5 @ Purdue, -14 vs NW.
- NW notable games remaining: +14 @ Iowa, +5.5 vs ND, -2 @ Minn.
- Purdue notable games remaining: +4.5 vs Iowa, -1 vs Wisc, -6.5 @ Minn.
- Ohio St notable games remaining: -2 vs Mich, -8.5 @ MSU.
- Michigan notable games remaining: +2 @ OSU, -5.5 vs PSU.

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8Week 9

Gotta take care of business next Saturday, then get ready for three games that could make or break the season.

Still hoping for six wins here.

Thanks for the update, Gopher07!

JTG

The variance of our data is still throwing it off - and would for any predictor - is my guess. Don’t think we win by 10, in Champaign.

I’m optimistic for *A* win, but that’s it.

Gophers_4life said:

The variance of our data is still throwing it off - and would for any predictor - is my guess. Don’t think we win by 10, in Champaign.

I’m optimistic for *A* win, but that’s it.

Click to expand...

You think the margin of defeat predicted for Wisconsin and Purdue is also overstated?

bleedsmaroonandgold said:

You think the margin of defeat predicted for Wisconsin and Purdue is also overstated?

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Corey Wootton on BTN says he thinks the Gophers get bowl eligible with wins over Illinois & Purdue. Thought it was interesting he picked Purdue but then again, he went to NW.

Thank goodness Purdue and Northwestern are at home!

AtTheLibrary said:

Corey Wootton on BTN says he thinks the Gophers get bowl eligible with wins over Illinois & Purdue. Thought it was interesting he picked Purdue but then again, he went to NW.

Click to expand...

I'd say no way we lost at Illinois, and the other teams look vulnerable enough that even though I'd probably bet on any one of them straight up against us, I'd bet on us to win at least one of the three.