Sagarin Predictions: Week 5

Gopher07

Captain of Awesome
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
9,008
Reaction score
15
Points
38
That sound you heard was the Gopher train screeching to a halt. With a 42-14 beatdown at the hands of Maryland, the Gophers now stand at 1-1 in toss-up games for the year. Of course, it was a big margin of defeat and that shows up in the numbers to a point. Games that looks to be trending in the Gophers' favor have swung the other way - especially Purdue, which closed the gap significantly after their first win of the year over Boston College.

But, those opponents haven't completely left Minnesota in the dust. There are still five toss-up games left on the schedule, and the Gophers are favorites in all five. If Minnesota can manage to win three of those five, there will be a bowl game at the end of the rainbow.

Losing Winfield hurts but the bye came at a great time for this team to get their heads right and re-energize for homecoming. Looking forward to seeing what the numbers do between now and then.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent. I round to the nearest half point, and if neither team has a greater than 0.24 advantage, the game will be listed as a PICK.

vs New Mexico State W (Predicted -12.5; Actual -38)
vs Fresno State W (Predicted +0.5; Actual -7)
vs Miami (Ohio) -22 W (Predicted -22; Actual -23)
at Maryland L (Predicted -1.5; Actual +28)
vs Iowa +8.5
at Ohio State +28.5
at Nebraska -2.5
vs Indiana -2
at Illinois -7.5
vs Purdue -4
vs Northwestern -2.5
at Wisconsin +18.5

Final record: 8-4 (5-4)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): @ Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Nebraska, vs Indiana, vs Purdue, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin

NEW FEATURE!
Thanks to user matt, we now have predicted B1G standings based on the formula.

B1G West
Iowa: 7-2
Wisconsin: 7-2
Minnesota: 5-4
Northwestern: 4-5
Purude: 2-7
Illinois: 1-8
Nebraska: 1-8

B1G East
Ohio St: 9-0
Penn St: 8-1
Michigan: 7-2
Michigan St: 6-3
Maryland: 3.5-5.5 (@ IU is a PICK)
Indiana: 2.5-6.5 (vs MD is a PICK)
Rutgers: 0-9

Crossover Games
West: 6-15
East: 15-6

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
 

I'm a bit surprised we're still target for as high as 8-5, but I suppose sagarin doesn't factor in the eye test from the last game.
 

I'm a bit surprised we're still target for as high as 8-5, but I suppose sagarin doesn't factor in the eye test from the last game.

There are three teams on the schedule who are under .500 and Ill and IND are suspect.
 


I believe the reference was towards the steady improvement we've seen in these numbers week over week. We were ranked in the 40s last week and ready to contend with the Top 30; but Maryland pushed us all the way down to 60 and we're looking back up again.

8-4 is a screeching halt? I would consider 4 or 5 wins to be screeching halt territory.
 


The data is wildly swinging, and no algorithm can exactly keep up with that in a single iteration. Our datapoint against Iowa next week, as well as the other datapoints for this week for other teams, will be much needed to fine tune the longer term predictions.

I would say, unless something drastic changes vs. Iowa, there is almost zero chance at 8-5.


Also think -7.5 is not accurate for Illinois. They're improved, ignore the score against Penn St, they were UP in the 3rd quarter! Were competitive against potentially the top G5 school (think like UCF from last year) in the Bears stadium as well. And we're playing in Champaign. That is every bit the same toss-up as going to Lincoln.

Would say at Wisconsin and at Ohio State are losses, maybe they can pull a rabit out of a hat next week for homecoming, but most likely the fate of the season is going to rest on the five toss-up games. Hope they can take 3 of the 5, go to a bowl game.
 

I believe the reference was towards the steady improvement we've seen in these numbers week over week. We were ranked in the 40s last week and ready to contend with the Top 30; but Maryland pushed us all the way down to 60 and we're looking back up again.

This is more what I was referencing, yes
 

I believe the reference was towards the steady improvement we've seen in these numbers week over week. We were ranked in the 40s last week and ready to contend with the Top 30; but Maryland pushed us all the way down to 60 and we're looking back up again.

That would make sense albeit a little too dramatic.
 

The data is wildly swinging, and no algorithm can exactly keep up with that in a single iteration. Our datapoint against Iowa next week, as well as the other datapoints for this week for other teams, will be much needed to fine tune the longer term predictions.

I would say, unless something drastic changes vs. Iowa, there is almost zero chance at 8-5.


Also think -7.5 is not accurate for Illinois. They're improved, ignore the score against Penn St, they were UP in the 3rd quarter! Were competitive against potentially the top G5 school (think like UCF from last year) in the Bears stadium as well. And we're playing in Champaign. That is every bit the same toss-up as going to Lincoln.

Would say at Wisconsin and at Ohio State are losses, maybe they can pull a rabit out of a hat next week for homecoming, but most likely the fate of the season is going to rest on the five toss-up games. Hope they can take 3 of the 5, go to a bowl game.

They played USF and while they have a couple P5 wins to boast about, they haven't looked real dominant in any of the games compared to UCF.
 



... most likely the fate of the season is going to rest on the five toss-up games. Hope they can take 3 of the 5, go to a bowl game.

Bingo. Survive the Iowa and OSU games, then settle in for what should be an interesting five-game stretch that will determine how the season is perceived.

If we're not competitive in that five-game stretch, even with all the injuries ... well, let's just hope that's not how it plays out. Because, in the words of Clint Eastwood, it could get ****in' ugly.

Getting to a bowl game this season -- any bowl game -- would be an accomplishment.

JTG
 

Normally these trend more pessimistic about the Gophers. In this case I would say 8-4 is more optimistic than most of us are guessing.
 


If you're interested i've built a simple chart that shows the rise and fall in the Sagarin Rankings for 2017 and 2018.


https://public.tableau.com/views/Mi...heet1?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&publish=yes

I'm not sure there is a way to embed this right into the site, but if anyone knows how that would be great.

Hopefully this worked...

Edit 1: nope, let me try again
Edit 2: couldn't get it working...when pasting in the embed code it would not show up properly. Side note, Preview Post/Preview Changes doesn't appear to be working.
 
Last edited:



Is it safe to assume this does not factor in injuries? If Winfield was not done for the year I would buy 8-4, but without him 6-6 seems much more realistic.
 


Hopefully this worked...

Edit 1: nope, let me try again
Edit 2: couldn't get it working...when pasting in the embed code it would not show up properly. Side note, Preview Post/Preview Changes doesn't appear to be working.

None of the code, html, or php tags did anything. I think all we got to work with is a text editor.
 
Last edited:

None of the code, html, or php tags did anything. I think all we got to work with is a text editor.

Yeah :( but I know we can get tweets embedded properly, so there is some way to get it to parse html tags properly...Might be a question for whoever does the tech stuff at gopherhole
 

Yeah :( but I know we can get tweets embedded properly, so there is some way to get it to parse html tags properly...Might be a question for whoever does the tech stuff at gopherhole

Bueller ... Bueller ...
 

Nebraska and Illinois will do better than 1-8. We will have a real fight to get to six wins.
 




Top Bottom