Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
- Messages
- 9,008
- Reaction score
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- Points
- 38
Well, we didn't win, but we played to expectations in terms of margin last weekend. That marks the fourth time this year the final margin has been within 1 point of the predicted spread (the others being Oregon State, Penn State, and Iowa).
If the Gophers want to get to 8 wins this weekend, they need to do something they've done once all season - win a game where the opponent is favored by the formula. The first time they did was on the road against Maryland (+3.5 at the time), so it would be nice if we had the same luck at home once this year (although to be cautious, we've underperformed the predicted spread in four of our six home games so far this year).
I hold no confidence in our ability to win in Madison given the current spread, matchups, and the timing of the game (end of regular season, Wisconsin looking to play their way into the playoff) - but we'll see. Rivalry game, anything can happen, etc.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +4; actual +3)
vs Iowa L (predicted +8; actual +7)
@ Maryland W (predicted: +3.5; actual -21)
vs Rutgers W (predicted: -20.5; actual -2)
@ Illinois W (predicted -3; actual -23)
vs Purdue W (predicted -19.5; actual -13)
@ Nebraska L (predicted +6; actual +7)
vs Northwestern +2.5
@ Wisconsin +18.5
Final record: 7-5 (4-5)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota):
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Wisconsin
If the Gophers want to get to 8 wins this weekend, they need to do something they've done once all season - win a game where the opponent is favored by the formula. The first time they did was on the road against Maryland (+3.5 at the time), so it would be nice if we had the same luck at home once this year (although to be cautious, we've underperformed the predicted spread in four of our six home games so far this year).
I hold no confidence in our ability to win in Madison given the current spread, matchups, and the timing of the game (end of regular season, Wisconsin looking to play their way into the playoff) - but we'll see. Rivalry game, anything can happen, etc.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
Previous weeks are below:
Preseason
Week 2
Week 3
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
vs Oregon State W (predicted -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State W (predicted -17.5; actual -30)
vs Colorado State W (predicted -17.5; actual -7)
@ Penn State L (predicted +4; actual +3)
vs Iowa L (predicted +8; actual +7)
@ Maryland W (predicted: +3.5; actual -21)
vs Rutgers W (predicted: -20.5; actual -2)
@ Illinois W (predicted -3; actual -23)
vs Purdue W (predicted -19.5; actual -13)
@ Nebraska L (predicted +6; actual +7)
vs Northwestern +2.5
@ Wisconsin +18.5
Final record: 7-5 (4-5)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota):
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Wisconsin