Sagarin Predictions: Week 2

As expected, there are some early-season swings in our numbers from week one to week two. However, the season outlook is pretty similar - the only shift in terms of favorite is for Illinois, as they flipped from slight dogs (-1) to slight favorites (+2.5) based on the performances from this weekend.

Interestingly, going into last week the formula had us as 8-point favorites against Oregon State. If we chose to kick the XP, and made it, the numbers would've been spot on for us against the Beavs.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

Preseason predictions can be found here.

Lots more change coming in the next few weeks, but for now, here's where we stand:

vs Oregon State W (predicted: -8; actual -7)
vs Indiana State -17.5
vs Colorado State -18.5
@ Penn State +5.5
vs Iowa +7.5
@ Maryland -4
vs Rutgers -13.5
@ Illinois +2.5
vs Purdue -9.5
@ Nebraska +13
vs Northwestern -1
@ Wisconsin +13

Final record: 7-5 (4-5)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Indiana State, vs Colorado State, vs Rutgers, vs Purdue
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Penn State, @ Maryland, @ Illinois, vs Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): vs Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin

Interesting to me that we are larger favorite vs CSU than vs The Sycamores. I guess the value placed on the one game from this year is very high.

Colorado state is absolutely horrible. Whereas Indiana state is a solid team that is just outgunned in talent.