Tracking the Sagarin predictions: Week 4

Week three can be found here: http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showthread.php?32158-Tracking-the-Sagarin-predictions-Week-3

Sagarin's ratings can be found here: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm

I take [home team rating + 3.08 (home field advantage)] - [away team rating] to show spreads.

Minnesota, #97, 63.22 PREDICTOR rating. Results/predicted lines in parentheses.

@ USC (L, 17-19)
vs NMSU (L, 21-28)
vs Miami (OH) (W, 29-23)
vs NDSU (L, 24-37)
@ Michigan (+23)
@ Purdue (+9)
vs Nebraska (+14)
vs Iowa (+11)
@ Michigan St (+21)
vs Wisconsin (+24)
@ Northwestern (+5)
vs Illinois (+13)

Final record: 1-11 (0-8).

Good chance to win (>6 spread favoring Gophers):
Close wins (0-6 spread favoring Gophers):
Close losses (0-6 spread favoring opponent): Northwestern
Good chance to lose (>6 spread favoring opponent): Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois

Very ouch.

The computers don't take into account how Dan Persa's recovery has kept him off the field in Northwestern's first three games. If he's as healthy as they're expecting he'll be by November, take that game out of the "close loss" category.

People really get boners for these rankings. Fact of the matter if someone with a medium amount of knowledge picked all the winners of all the games weekly, he would probably have a record that isn't statistically significantly different than the sar ratings.

I agree, it's nothing more than a talking point, and measure of relative size and relative strength of directionality.