Tracking the Sagarin predictions: Week 3

Week two can be found here: http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boards/showthread.php?31942-Tracking-the-Sagarin-predictions-Week-2

Sagarin's ratings can be found here: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm

I take [home team rating + 3.08 (home field advantage)] - [away team rating] to show spreads.

Minnesota, #81, 66.47 PREDICTOR rating. Results/predicted lines in parentheses.

@ USC (L, 17-19)
vs NMSU (L, 21-28)
vs Miami (OH) (W, 29-23)
vs NDSU (-2)
@ Michigan (+17)
@ Purdue (+4.5)
vs Nebraska (+11)
vs Iowa (+8.5)
@ Michigan St (+14.5)
vs Wisconsin (+21)
@ Northwestern (+2)
vs Illinois (+11)

Final record: 2-10 (0-8).

Good chance to win (>6 spread favoring Gophers):
Close wins (0-6 spread favoring Gophers): North Dakota State
Close losses (0-6 spread favoring opponent): Purdue, Northwestern
Good chance to lose (>6 spread favoring opponent): Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois

Moved one of the good chance to lose into the close loss category as Northwestern lost to Army. If we can win all the toss ups we're looking at 4-8 (2-6). FWIW, this was pretty dead on last week ... had us favored by 8 against Miami, we won by 6. Underscores how close this weekend's game has the potential to be. I hope our guys aren't overlooking it.

Teams aren't limked yet look for things to change by week 5. I expect the biggest changes to be for Illinois to increase, Iowa and Michigan State to decrease, in predictor value. Iowa will fall into the close loss category with Michagan State barely outside it.

If Gray keeps improving, gets some consistency, the Gophs might not be that bad. Defense has a ways to go, but I am pleasantly surprised by the offense so far. Getting Kirkwood back helps a bit. I expect the rating spread to tighten a bit as far as the Gophers are concerned.

I suppose these ratings aren't the most accurate this early in the season, but I'm surprised that Illinois is favored by 11 at this point, especially with the game being at the Bank, although I suppose we have underperformed by losing to New Mexico State, and I haven't been paying much attention to Illinois, but I did see they had the most total offense of anyone in the Big Ten, even Wisconsin, on the leaderboards that they put up on the big screen at TCF prior to the Miami OH game, so maybe they have been performing better than expected. Interesting to see that Nebraska and Illinois are favored by the same amount, and that Iowa is favored by less than Illinois, but I won't complain, I'd much rather beat Iowa again than beat Illinois again.