"I don't think this thread would exist if the Gophers weren't missing 4 of their top 6 players". I've seen a lot of posters write something similar to this and I wholeheartedly agree with this statement. Where the disconnect is with me, is I also don't' think the thread would exist if the Gophers finished between 6-12 and 8-10 in conference play. If you look at where Wisconsin was projected prior to the season and then see that they lost 2 of their top 6 and still finished 7-11 in conference play (while starting a Freshman PG), it's really hard to argue that the Gophers should have ended up 4-14. Indiana was not projected to be good this year, lost their Center for the year before playing the Gophers, and ended up 9-9 in league play. I strongly believe this team gave a very inconsistent effort post the Lynch suspension and that made what was always going to be a disappointing season at that point turn in to a season that was untenable.
I feel like this job is going to be more attractive this off season than it would be for next season for a few reasons:
1. Solid roster of returners plus a top 50 recruit: A new coach would have a chance to build momentum for his program immediately building around a Senior Jordan Murphy and players like Coffey, McBrayer, and Curry along with a solid (not great) recruiting class. If a move happens after the '18 season you remove Murphy and McBrayer from the roster and replace them with whoever Pitino has recruited for '19. This is a major concern of mine given how Pitino recruited on the heels of his last disaster of a season; it was that off season where he missed on Jericho Sims, Theo John, and arguably some of (but not all) Reuvers, Davison, and Wright. I can't imagine anyone feels good about Matthew Hurt right now and i haven't seen it suggested that we lead for any top 100 guys in the '19 class.
2. Only B1G job to open: This is not a certainty, but right now it seems unlikely that any other job would open. Who knows what happens by this time next year? I think it helped the Gophers immensely in landing Fleck for football that the only other B1G job to open that cycle was Purdue. I'd rather not compete with Michigan State or Maryland that may open by next year.
3. New facilities: That new car smell only lasts so long, and I'd take advantage of showing a potential new coach around his potential new work environment while things look as impressive (relative to our competition) as they can.
4. Perception of the program: Taking over one year removed from a top 4 finish and a 5 seed is a lot different than taking over a team that has missed the tournament two years in a row and a team with a really ugly conference winning percentage over those two years.
With Pitino's buyout being 4 million this year, it's probably close to 3 million next year. I can't imagine him being back in '19-20 without a tournament appearance, so we are really talking about spending 1 million or so more this year to open the job in a more favorable environment (IMHO) than it would be next year. I would imagine attendance will be down next year if a change is not made, so I think a purely financial argument could be made that it would be better to move on now if you are coming at the issue from the perspective that it's likely you are going to have to pay ~3 million to go in a different direction a year from now.
Personally, I'll be all in on supporting Pitino if he's back because I believe the program badly needs next year to go well. If it doesn't, my fear is that this job becomes a major rebuild with a fan base that is beyond sick of bad years and we're going to have a really uninspired list of candidates who are interested in taking on that challenge.