Hey Gophers! Looking forward to visiting the Twin Cities in a couple weeks. Ready to get this season underway.
I am well aware of the Big 12's defensive reputation, but TCU has been 1st or 2nd in total defense in the Big 12 each of its 3 years in the league (yes, TCU was #1 last year even with that debacle at Baylor). Patterson's teams are built around speed on defense (bend, don't break) and reloading on defense year after year---they have been for 15 years now, and I wouldn't expect there to be a drastic fall off this year. There's a reason Patterson's name comes up in every list of the best defensive coaches in CFB, and he's done it with 2 and 3-star recruits. No doubt they will likely surrender more points than last year's team, but the biggest losses were in the secondary and the line should be stout. My biggest concern for the defense early on in the season is penalties and bone-headed mistakes by the young guys. In short, I don't think youth at LB and safety alone is going to be a difference-maker in this game.
The Gophers' secondary is going to have to slow the game down and force TCU to run the ball. Even if TCU's defense struggles early in the season, no one wants to get into a shootout with Boykin, especially if Gray and Doctson are available and playing at full speed. The offense the Gophers saw in Fort Worth last year was inexperienced and sloppy. That offense had only played FCS Samford and eventual 1-11 SMU. After a tight game against OU and the fourth-quarter meltdown at Baylor, the Frogs' offensive coordinators decided to slow the offense down a notch. The defense got gassed against Baylor because the offense was playing too fast and coming off the field too quickly. It had been an emotional game, and the wheels came off. What was an absolute nightmare (and the risk of the up-tempo, no-huddle) was tempered later in the season by slowing down a bit. The offense got better and helped the defense by going a bit slower; meanwhile, the defense got better conditioned and after Baylor we never saw them get gassed late in a game.
I think Minnesota's opening relies on strong secondary play, forcing the TCU offense to run the ball and run the clock, exploiting mistakes made by TCU's young secondary and out-performing expectations on offense (it will take more than 30 points to win this game). I think the lines are about fair (TCU by 14) only because of Boykin. But if you look at last season's results and stats, TCUs struggles mostly came on the road (Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas). So, a Thursday night game in Minneapolis is no small factor in this one. I think it's going to be a fun game and can't wait to get up there. Really enjoyed all the Gophers fans that came down to Fort Worth last year. And no matter what happens 2 weeks from tonight, I wish y'all all the best the rest of the season.