Zack Annexstad -- perspective and projection

rockford

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I had the pleasure of attending the Gophers' season opener against New Mexico St., and was immediately impressed by freshman QB Zack Annexstad. As the season progressed, I've remained impressed. He's played with much more poise and confidence than could be expected of a freshman, and IMHO he has considerable upside, especially when you factor in his true freshman status.

I know. That's just like my opinion, man. But what do the numbers say about ZA's overall value as a QB? Here then is some perspective, and an attempt at projecting where this young man could end up.

First, let's look at how ZA compares to other Gopher quarterbacks this decade (which takes us back to the dawn of the Jerry Kill era). Here's how Gopher quarterbacks have faired since 2011, ranked by QB rating. ZA's current stats have been doubled, since we're at the midpoint of the season.

'13 131.9 Leidner 619 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
'17 126.6 Rhoda 839 yds, 5 TD, 4 INT
'12 126.2 Shortell 853 yds, 6 TD, 5 INT
'14 123.8 Leidner 1,798 yds, 11 TD, 4 INT
'15 121.1 Leidner 2,701 yds, 14 TD, 11 INT
'13 119.0 Nelson 1,306 yds, 9 TD, 6 INT
'18 117.6 ZA 2,284 yds, 16 TD, 14 INT
'16 116.5 Leidner 2,169 yds, 8 TD, 12 INT
'11 114.5 Gray 1,495 yds, 8 TD, 8 INT
'12 104.4 Nelson 873 yds, 8 TD, 8 INT
'17 87.6 Croft 674 yds, 4 TD, 7 INT

Yeah, it hasn't exactly been Quarterback U. But the point is -- ZA is on track for a season that compares favorably to anything we've seen in recent years. His yardage would be second only to Leidner's in 2015. The Gophs were 6-7 that year with a bowl game win. If ZA's stats are projected over 13 games (instead of 12), he would finish with 2,474 yards, 17 TD, 15 INT.

ZA's 16-17 TD would top the list. Yes, and his 14-15 INT would as well.

But how does ZA's performance stack up against the most important measure – other QB in the division? Here are the current stats, ranked by rating:

Blough (Sr) PRD 160.1 1,695 yds, 10 TD, 2 INT
Stanley (Jr) IA 155.9 1,473 yds, 15 TD, 5 INT
Hornibrook (Jr) WI 140.1 1,063 yds, 8 TD, 4 INT
Martinez (Fr) NE 132.4 1,167 yds, 6 TD, 5 INT
Thorson (Sr) NW 126.8 1,755 yds, 9 TD, 7 INT
Rivers (Fr) IL 122.4 422 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
ZA (Fr) MN 117.6 1,142 yds, 8 TD, 7 INT
Bush (Sr) IL 112.0 482 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Blough and Stanley are currently having breakaway seasons. But there really seems to be little statistical difference between the other six QB listed above.

ZA's ultimate value as a quarterback will be determined by his development over the remainder of his career. The big question: How much can he improve from his performance as a true freshman? Well, based on the trajectory of Leidner's career, not much. In fact, Leidner's rating regressed steadily from 131.9 in 2013 to 116.5 in 2016.

But regression isn't the norm. If you look at the three current division quarterbacks who have started for multiple years, there have been steady and fairly sizable increases in annual performance. Consider:

  • Blough's QB rating went from 108.6 to 119.4 his sophomore year, to 137.8 last year, to 160.1 so far this year. That's a total of nearly 52 QB ratings points, or about 17 per year, on average.
  • Hornibrook improved from 125.8 his freshman year to 148.6 last year, where he's essentially plateaued this season. But that was a leap of 23 QB ratings points freshman to sophomore season.
  • Thorson went from 95.9 his freshman season to 125.9 his sophomore season, where he's essentially plateaued. But that was a 30-point leap in QB rating.

So, the question remains – what exactly is “peak ZA”? Are we seeing it now? Will he be like Leidner, and never really move the sticks as far as QB ratings are concerned? Or will he be like the current crop of multi-year quarterbacks in the conference, who experienced a jump of anywhere between 10 and 30 points in QB rating their second time around?

An increase of 10 points would place ZA near the middle of the pack as far as the division goes, but would place him at the top of what we've seen from Gopher quarterbacks since 2011. In fact, it would likely go down as one of the top performances in program history. Consider: Adam Weber's high-water mark in QB rating was at 129.9 in 2010, when he threw for 2,679 yards, 20 TD and 9 INT. ZA, at 127.6, would be in that neighborhood. And that's a nice neighborhood.

An increase of 30 points would place ZA in the top tier of division quarterbacks, with numbers unseen in Gopher football history. Hell, an increase of half that would likely make him the top all-time passer in program history.

Where will he end up on the overall spectrum? A one-year flash? A solid contributor rendered remarkable only by the scarcity of great quarterbacks at Minnesota? Or one of the all-time top passers in program history?

At this point, my money is on the latter. That's based on the eye test, as well as the year-to-year improvement shown by other QB in the division.

Ever since the Maryland debacle, I've been looking forward to these next five upcoming games. My belief is that these games should give us a good measure of where our program is at.

That's also true for ZA. Can he increase his efficiency, his TD/INT ratio? With less stiff competition and an apparently revitalized offensive line, will his output improve? Or will we be going into the off-season wondering who our QB will be next year.

Only time will tell.

JTG
 

WinLoseOrTy

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Zack's biggest challenge right now is decision making. The good news is he is a true freshman. And with experience that should improve. He has enough arm strength and makes enough throws to get fans excited.

I'll be watching the progress on the following 3 areas. If he can make strikes in those, the Gophers should win many games over his career.

1) Manipulating the safety with his eyes

2) Progressing through his reads

3) Eliminating the "500" type throws. The ball is the program.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon

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As a highly qualified quarterback prognosticator who is really good at this thing but for some reason just chooses not to make bazillions of dollars as what would possibly be the only person on the planet who is really good at picking QBs and predicting their development i'll just say: No clue man....
 

MNVCGUY

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No way to really know what his ceiling is at this point but would be pretty shocking not to see ZA progress from where he is at currently a whopping 6 games into his college career. It looks like he is going to have a strong group of receivers to throw to and the prospects for an improved O-Line in the future got a big boost with Faalele being ready to go already.

Hard to say where he will rank all time in regards to Gopher QBs when he is done but assuming he can stay healthy and doesn't get beat out for the starting job down the line, I like his chances of going down as one of the most successful QBs in Gopher history.
 

rockford

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As a highly qualified quarterback prognosticator who is really good at this thing but for some reason just chooses not to make bazillions of dollars as what would possibly be the only person on the planet who is really good at picking QBs and predicting their development i'll just say: No clue man....

Well, we have clues ... just no obvious conclusion that can be drawn from them. ;)

But, we can say that in his first six games on the job, ZA's performance doesn't pale in comparison to the best we've seen in the last seven years. Not that that's anything to brag about, unfortunately.

But ZA's youth and, I daresay, his raw skills provide potential.

Beyond that, we can only watch the story unfold. The next chapter -- the final six games of the season -- will likely provide more clues.

Here's the thing: ZA's season-to-season improvement will almost certainly mirror any increasing strength in the program. And if you think about it, everything points in the right direction there. Next year, our OL, running game and receiving corps should all be stronger. That means ZA's numbers may well improve -- even if he doesn't.

At this point, my guess is that ZA's QB rating will improve at least as fast and far as his B1G division counterparts in the sample above. And that would put him in the company of the best passer in school history.

JTG
 

WHB Brewer

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Well, we have clues ... just no obvious conclusion that can be drawn from them. ;)

But, we can say that in his first six games on the job, ZA's performance doesn't pale in comparison to the best we've seen in the last seven years. Not that that's anything to brag about, unfortunately.

But ZA's youth and, I daresay, his raw skills provide potential.

Beyond that, we can only watch the story unfold. The next chapter -- the final six games of the season -- will likely provide more clues.

Here's the thing: ZA's season-to-season improvement will almost certainly mirror any increasing strength in the program. And if you think about it, everything points in the right direction there. Next year, our OL, running game and receiving corps should all be stronger. That means ZA's numbers may well improve -- even if he doesn't.

At this point, my guess is that ZA's QB rating will improve at least as fast and far as his B1G division counterparts in the sample above. And that would put him in the company of the best passer in school history.

JTG
Or the next recruit is better.
Time will tell ......



Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon

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Well, we have clues ... just no obvious conclusion that can be drawn from them. ;)

But, we can say that in his first six games on the job, ZA's performance doesn't pale in comparison to the best we've seen in the last seven years. Not that that's anything to brag about, unfortunately.

But ZA's youth and, I daresay, his raw skills provide potential.

Beyond that, we can only watch the story unfold. The next chapter -- the final six games of the season -- will likely provide more clues.

Here's the thing: ZA's season-to-season improvement will almost certainly mirror any increasing strength in the program. And if you think about it, everything points in the right direction there. Next year, our OL, running game and receiving corps should all be stronger. That means ZA's numbers may well improve -- even if he doesn't.

At this point, my guess is that ZA's QB rating will improve at least as fast and far as his B1G division counterparts in the sample above. And that would put him in the company of the best passer in school history.

JTG

I appreciate your efforts for sure.

QBs are weird though. I suspect they're just born destined to be good or bad with whatever skills they have and ... nobody has a clue how to identify them until it is already obvious.
 

rockford

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Zack's biggest challenge right now is decision making. The good news is he is a true freshman. And with experience that should improve. He has enough arm strength and makes enough throws to get fans excited.

I'll be watching the progress on the following 3 areas. If he can make strikes in those, the Gophers should win many games over his career.

1) Manipulating the safety with his eyes

2) Progressing through his reads

3) Eliminating the "500" type throws. The ball is the program.

I agree completely with #1. In fact, that's ZA's primary hurdle, at this point. I think it's not only hurting him with D backs, but with defensive linemen, who seem to be batting down more balls because they can tell where the throwing lane is.

The "long-ball jump balls" I'm not inclined to blame on ZA at this point. We've seen this enough times already that we can reasonably conclude that the coaching staff has confidence in our receivers' ability to go up and get the ball, and is encouraging these throws. (A commenter in another thread, perhaps @Vandy, said he heard Fleck say as much in an interview.) And it seems to me the majority of ZA's interceptions have come on these types of plays.

Point is, I don't think decision-making is holding him back. (Which is not to say he doesn't need to get better at, say, avoiding sacks, which could also fall under "decision making.")

JTG
 

short ornery norwegian

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a lot of this is subjective - and hinges on the proposition that "he's a freshman, so he has to get better next year." That may be true, but it's not a sure thing.

From my highly subjective point of view, I just don't get the feeling that Annexstad has "it." "It," of course, involves all of the intangibles that take a QB from workmanlike to really good. "It" includes things like instincts and a feel for the game that are hard to quantify - but you know it when you see it.

My gut (which may be dead wrong) tells me that Annexstad has the ability to become a good - but not great - QB. I see him more as a game manager type who can occasionally hit the big play - not as the type of QB who can take a game over.

Again, I could be wrong. But I just don't get the vibe from Annexstad that he has that high of a ceiling.

As I've said before, I do not see Annexstad being a 4-year starter. If Fleck is the recruiter that many people believe he is, then I would expect him to recruit a better QB in the next 2-3 years.

Not knocking Annexstad as a person. But, if he was that good/great, he would have had more power-5 offers. What the Gophers need is the QB equivalent of Bateman. A player with SEC-level ability, who commits to the Gophers early despite offers and interest from the big helmet schools. It may be a pipe dream, but it's worth dreaming about.
 

rockford

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a lot of this is subjective - and hinges on the proposition that "he's a freshman, so he has to get better next year." That may be true, but it's not a sure thing.

From my highly subjective point of view, I just don't get the feeling that Annexstad has "it." "It," of course, involves all of the intangibles that take a QB from workmanlike to really good. "It" includes things like instincts and a feel for the game that are hard to quantify - but you know it when you see it.

My gut (which may be dead wrong) tells me that Annexstad has the ability to become a good - but not great - QB. I see him more as a game manager type who can occasionally hit the big play - not as the type of QB who can take a game over.

Again, I could be wrong. But I just don't get the vibe from Annexstad that he has that high of a ceiling.

As I've said before, I do not see Annexstad being a 4-year starter. If Fleck is the recruiter that many people believe he is, then I would expect him to recruit a better QB in the next 2-3 years.

Not knocking Annexstad as a person. But, if he was that good/great, he would have had more power-5 offers. What the Gophers need is the QB equivalent of Bateman. A player with SEC-level ability, who commits to the Gophers early despite offers and interest from the big helmet schools. It may be a pipe dream, but it's worth dreaming about.

Yep. It's absolutely subjective.

However, the improvement evidenced by the three multi-year starters in the sample is objective. As is the fact that Leidner's QB ratings steadily regressed during his four-year career.

I agree, anything can happen, including ZA being injured or being beaten out by a new recruit.

So I guess our guts will simply have to agree to disagree regarding ZA's likely ceiling. :D

JTG
 

WinLoseOrTy

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I agree completely with #1. In fact, that's ZA's primary hurdle, at this point. I think it's not only hurting him with D backs, but with defensive linemen, who seem to be batting down more balls because they can tell where the throwing lane is.

The "long-ball jump balls" I'm not inclined to blame on ZA at this point. We've seen this enough times already that we can reasonably conclude that the coaching staff has confidence in our receivers' ability to go up and get the ball, and is encouraging these throws. (A commenter in another thread, perhaps @Vandy, said he heard Fleck say as much in an interview.) And it seems to me the majority of ZA's interceptions have come on these types of plays.

Point is, I don't think decision-making is holding him back. (Which is not to say he doesn't need to get better at, say, avoiding sacks, which could also fall under "decision making.")

JTG

I don't disagree that the staff has confidence in our receivers to make a play on a ball. There are nuances to this though, and something Zack will learn. Putting the ball in a spot where only the receiver can make a play is the biggest one. Make those 50/50 balls 50% catch and 50% incompletion.
 

rockford

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I don't disagree that the staff has confidence in our receivers to make a play on a ball. There are nuances to this though, and something Zack will learn. Putting the ball in a spot where only the receiver can make a play is the biggest one. Make those 50/50 balls 50% catch and 50% incompletion.

Well said.

JTG
 

PhillyGopher

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Things are moving faster for him - on both sides of the line - than they did for him last year. His progress depends on how well he is able to slow things down
 
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Zack's biggest challenge right now is decision making. The good news is he is a true freshman. And with experience that should improve. He has enough arm strength and makes enough throws to get fans excited.

I'll be watching the progress on the following 3 areas. If he can make strikes in those, the Gophers should win many games over his career.

1) Manipulating the safety with his eyes

2) Progressing through his reads

3) Eliminating the "500" type throws. The ball is the program.

PJ is really working with ZA on the "eyes" issue. The OSU game video of PJ on the sidelines pointing to his eyes while ZA was looking to the sidelines for direction was telling. For now probably just to avoid having the safety break up passes and make interceptions. Eventually to send the safeties after decoys. The comment in the thread about not helping D-line in batting down balls thrown was also incisive.

Helping ZA on issue #1 (eyes) should be the easiest of the three areas noted for improvement. Progressing thru reads (#2) is probably the hardest skill to master for developing QB's. However, it will be worth the effort. Improving #2 automatically improves #1. Eliminating or reducing 50/50 throws (#3) will be with coaches play calling (fewer long balls, more intermediate balls with YAC or Yards After Catch). And better arm strength with strength training. And more experience in not throwing to well covered (short and deep DB's) receivers. Use progression to find receivers that are open and not doubled up. Why else have a deep and talented receiver corps. Guess I am saying improving #2 (progression) may be the most difficult but is the most important.

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Panthadad2

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Love the analysis.

In a nutshell, ZA looks like he has the potential to be an effective passer....if he doesn't get killed first.
 

Winnipegopher

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Ok. My subjective take.

ZA has skills. I think he throws a better ball than any recent QB. The interceptions don't bother me. What worries me are the coverage sacks he takes. Those indicate a lack of understanding that should be present- even in a freshman. I wonder what Weber would have looked like as a true freshman?

I think he is doing fine. I will say I like this year's offence better than the last year or most of the Leidner era.
 

hungan1

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Zack Annexstad is a QB that can throw fairly well in tight short and intermediate range. But, the long ball has a lot to be desired at this point.

The first three four games you see a leaky Offensive Line and a QB that had barely enough time to throw. But, when they inserted Faalele, the OL showed much improvements. He has a very capable WR corps. Succeeding practice reps will help with QB/WRs rapport. Having stabilized blocking will also help not only the passing game, but the running game.

IMHO, starting with the Nebraska game with a better OL he has a chance to trully show what he is made of. PJ Fleck is not adverse to recruiting a better QB. He has said so that he is trying to out recruits the current players.

We will then be able to judge his body of work after he has completed this season. We expect to see progressive improvements game to game.

The Gopher needed both the running and passing game in order to win in the B1G.
 

matt

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Good compilation and analysis. Thanks rockford!
 

Pompous Elitist

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I’m not sure how much we can take away since none of those Gopher QBs lit the world on fire. I hope we have higher goals under an offense-oriented coach like PJ. Second, ZA has had 3 G5 defenses in his first 6 starts while the others played a full slate of Big Ten. Croft played almost only Big Ten. Third, ZA has receivers probably better than any of the listed Gopher QBs.

I do agree ZA will get better (or should get better) but I think the evidence of a solid or better QB will be there by next year at he latest.

From the other Big Ten QBs listed Thorson was horrible his first season, Blough has had turnover problems until this year. So yeah, guys get better. There is definitely hope and reason to believe he’s going to become an upper level QB in this offense with these receivers.
 

hungan1

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We need to make him play angry. He has too much of a baby face. Sooner or later, being flatten too many times will get him there.
 

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As is the fact that Leidner's QB ratings steadily regressed during his four-year career.


JTG

Yes, his QB rating declined but you always have to consider context in numbers. He didn't throw many passes as a freshman and they were more of a surprise when he did. I actually thought he was pretty good as a junior but his passing had to be a much bigger part of the offense then as our running game effectiveness significantly declined from his sophomore to junior year. Him having to throw more passes when we were playing catchup led to more mistakes. He was pretty disappointing as a senior but some of that low rating resulted from a few major choke performances that year (like Wisconsin and Nebraska)
 

rockford

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Yes, his QB rating declined but you always have to consider context in numbers. He didn't throw many passes as a freshman and they were more of a surprise when he did. I actually thought he was pretty good as a junior but his passing had to be a much bigger part of the offense then as our running game effectiveness significantly declined from his sophomore to junior year. Him having to throw more passes when we were playing catchup led to more mistakes. He was pretty disappointing as a senior but some of that low rating resulted from a few major choke performances that year (like Wisconsin and Nebraska)

I meant no disparagement toward Leidner. He did a lot right. And his passer rating doesn't take into account the value of his rushing for 1,500 yards and 33 TDs.

You can't look at the recent history of Gopher quarterbacks and not consider Leidner a positive.

I was actually surprised his QB rating regressed during his career. Although, to be fair, the drop he experienced wasn't that big.

JTG
 

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A bit of an update:

Just for kicks, I looked at the QBs in the East. Here are the numbers:

Haskins OH So 188.1 2,331 yds, 28 td, 4 int
McSorley PST Sr 134.3 1,241 yds, 11 td, 2 int
Patterson MCH Jr 154.8 1,311 yds, 10 td, 3 int
Lewerke MST Jr 124.8 1,587 yds, 8 td, 7 int
Hill MRY Fr 122.1 654 yds, 6 td, 2 int
Sitkowski RT Fr 74.3 758 yds, 3 td, 15 int
Ramsey IN So 132.0 1,624 yds, 12 td, 7 int

But to be honest, what I was really looking for was year-to-year improvement of returning starters. And what I found was that of the four QBs that qualify (McSorley, Patterson, Lewerke and Ramsey) ... NONE showed marked improvement after their debut. Here are their respective ratings, from earliest year to present:

McSorley 156.9, 153.7, 134.3
Patterson 151.5, 154.8
Lewerke 127.7, 124.8
Ramsey 127.9, 132.0

So among current B1G quarterbacks across both divisions, five of seven multi-year starters experienced improvement in their QB rating after their first year, ranging from 3.4 to around 30 points. However, it's important to note that three of the QBs who experienced little or no improvement took the reigns as sophomores at blue bloods Penn St., Michigan and MSU. I'm guessing they were more highly sought-after recruits coming out of high school who were more gifted going in, more prepared by the time they started, and surrounded by a stronger offensive unit. In other words, they were likely primed to succeed by the time they got the keys to the car.

Maybe more on this in a day or two.

JTG
 

rockford

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And since the data is all in one place, here's the current ranking of primary QBs at all B1G schools:

Haskins (So) OSU 188.1 2,331 yds, 28 td, 4 int
Blough (Sr) PRD 160.1 1,695 yds, 10 TD, 2 INT
Stanley (Jr) IA 155.9 1,473 yds, 15 TD, 5 INT
Patterson (Jr) MCH 154.8 1,311 yds, 10 td, 3 int
Hornibrook (Jr) WI 140.1 1,063 yds, 8 TD, 4 INT
McSorley (Sr) PST 134.3 1,241 yds, 11 td, 2 int
Martinez (Fr) NE 132.4 1,167 yds, 6 TD, 5 INT
Ramsey (So) IN 132.0 1,624 yds, 12 TD, 7 int
Thorson (Sr) NW 126.8 1,755 yds, 9 TD, 7 INT
Lewerke (Jr) MSU 124.8 1,587 yds, 8 td, 7 int
Rivers (Fr) IL 122.4 422 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Hill (Fr) MRY 122.1 654 yds, 6 td, 2 int
ZA (Fr) MN 117.6 1,142 yds, 8 TD, 7 INT
Bush (Sr) IL 112.0 482 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Sitkowski (Fr) RT 74.3 758 yds, 3 td, 15 int

Year-to-year improvement for second-year starters:
Blough 10.8
Hornibrook 23.8
Thorson 30.0
McSorley - 3.2
Patterson 3.3
Lewerke - 2.9
Ramsey 4.1

All but Patterson were redshirts. Here's a quick look at how all were ranked by Rivals coming out of high school (as best as I could tell with a quick search):

Blough -- #19 pro
Hornibrook -- not ranked
Thorson -- #6 dual
McSorley -- #50 athlete
Patterson -- #1 pro
Lewerke -- #9 pro
Ramsey -- not ranked

As expected, Patterson and Lewerke were very highly touted. Not sure what to make of McSorley's ranking.

JTG
 

go4rob

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There are going to be a lot of "if's" this Saturday in Lincoln, but the biggest one, IMHO, is going to be turnovers. If the Gophers can win the turnover battle, I think we will win. It seems that our long passes are more likely to get picked off than to be completed to a Gopher receiver. I would stick to the passes that have been working and not air it out so many times. One crucial interception was right after the fake double reverse - pass. We had them on the ropes at the OSU 35 yard line and then we go and try to loft a pass into the end zone, the receiver is open at the 10 yard line, but the pass is overthrown resulting in an interception. What a buzz-kill that was. Same could be said for TJ's fumble after his reception down at about the OSU 20 yard line. Those 2 turnovers, plus the 2 missed field goals = the difference in the game. Those have to be cleaned up in order for us to beat Nebraska.
 

Bordergopher

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Yes, his QB rating declined but you always have to consider context in numbers. He didn't throw many passes as a freshman and they were more of a surprise when he did. I actually thought he was pretty good as a junior but his passing had to be a much bigger part of the offense then as our running game effectiveness significantly declined from his sophomore to junior year. Him having to throw more passes when we were playing catchup led to more mistakes. He was pretty disappointing as a senior but some of that low rating resulted from a few major choke performances that year (like Wisconsin and Nebraska)

Overall, I think Leidner got more of a bum wrap than he deserved. The value of his tough and effective running compensated for his generally inaccurate passing. It is hard to erase the memories of short passes thrown incomplete at the feet of his receivers, but I choose to remember his gut-level toughness and heart.


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PMWinSTP

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I’m not sure how much we can take away since none of those Gopher QBs lit the world on fire. I hope we have higher goals under an offense-oriented coach like PJ. Second, ZA has had 3 G5 defenses in his first 6 starts while the others played a full slate of Big Ten. Croft played almost only Big Ten. Third, ZA has receivers probably better than any of the listed Gopher QBs.

I do agree ZA will get better (or should get better) but I think the evidence of a solid or better QB will be there by next year at he latest.

From the other Big Ten QBs listed Thorson was horrible his first season, Blough has had turnover problems until this year. So yeah, guys get better. There is definitely hope and reason to believe he’s going to become an upper level QB in this offense with these receivers.

I agree he will improve. Still go back to how quickly he picked up the offense and looked in practice. He's actually performing pretty comparable to Hornibrook statistically.
 
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