Uh oh, manufacturing you say?

bga1

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Trump just "hereby ordered" American businesses how to conduct themselves. I look forward to The Fellas screaming "socialist" at him and condemning him.
Bad wording by Trump there. No doubt about it.

Note: Some theorize that the wording was for the consumption of the Chinese, since that is the type of language they use. Possible, but I still don't favor that phrase.
 
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Section2

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Good stuff. We need to return to being a producing, saving and investing population. A good start to that would be to return more manufacturing to the US.
100% caused by US monetary policy. Can not fix without changing US monetary policy.
 

bga1

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100% caused by US monetary policy. Can not fix without changing US monetary policy.
What would you suggest- I am not arguing, I'm wondering. I take it step one for you is eliminate the Fed. Considering how unlikely that is 99.99999% not happening ...are there baby steps you would encourage?
 

justthefacts

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A three point shooter got hot and hit 50% of his threes over a period of 4 games. He had replaced a 3 point shooter that had been hitting at 25%. After the hot stretch the three point shooter "cooled" to 40% for the rest of the year. Because he was no longer shooting at 50% should the fans be wishing for the 25% shooter to return?

Period
 

bga1

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Like I said: A three point shooter got hot and hit 50% of his threes over a period of 4 games. He had replaced a 3 point shooter that had been hitting at 25%. After the hot stretch the three point shooter "cooled" to 40% for the rest of the year. Because he was no longer shooting at 50% should the fans be wishing for the 25% shooter to return?


We are way above where Obama was- even if the contraction you are hoping and praying for happens.
 

Section2

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What would you suggest- I am not arguing, I'm wondering. I take it step one for you is eliminate the Fed. Considering how unlikely that is 99.99999% not happening ...are there baby steps you would encourage?
Political realities mean that we will never solve our problems and we are headed for insolvency and hyperinflation. There's no way to make small changes and keep unemployment at zero and the stock market high.

I guess I would start by realizing that there is no good way forward that doesn't involve pain. What the Fed has done is a tremendous mistake and continues to be destructive. It has destroyed the price system in the bond market. The price system is the most important mechanism in the economy.

Baby step, continue to wind down the balance sheet.

Here's an interesting watch, Jim Grant is probably my favorite, although I hate Santelli.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycFtJujkB04
 

bga1

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Political realities mean that we will never solve our problems and we are headed for insolvency and hyperinflation. There's no way to make small changes and keep unemployment at zero and the stock market high.

I guess I would start by realizing that there is no good way forward that doesn't involve pain. What the Fed has done is a tremendous mistake and continues to be destructive. It has destroyed the price system in the bond market. The price system is the most important mechanism in the economy.

Baby step, continue to wind down the balance sheet.

Here's an interesting watch, Jim Grant is probably my favorite, although I hate Santelli.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycFtJujkB04
S2- I don't disagree with you. There is one guy on the scene who is not the normal political reality. Trump. So far, in my view he has been incredible on everything but the debt and deficits. There, not so good. However, he has shown a willingness to accept short term pain in an attempt to resolve 2 major problems: 1. Illegal immigration which does cost us 100-150 billion per year and 2) China, which has taken our technology and robbed us of a lot of our manufacturing base. In fact it is cheap goods from China that has been behind much of our wild consumption habits that you point to. Trump is taking a short term political beating with the tariffs in order to attempt to bring a lot of manufacturing back to our shores- which would be huge. I don't believe tariffs are the end game at all, but rather the beginning in a shift that will bring production home and to more stable friendly nations, Mexico being one of them.

Based on that, I still believe that part of his plan, following re-election, would be to actually work on the balance sheet and there are rumblings that he will do just that. Announcing it as a plan would be total political suicide and he would lose in 2020. But after 2020 he has that chance, though I admit that Congress is still a huge stumbling block.
 

GoodasGold

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A three point shooter got hot and hit 50% of his threes over a period of 4 games. He had replaced a 3 point shooter that had been hitting at 25%. After the hot stretch the three point shooter "cooled" to 40% for the rest of the year. Because he was no longer shooting at 50% should the fans be wishing for the 25% shooter to return?

Period
^^^^^^^^
Baffleblab!
 

Deleted_User

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Rebuilding manufacturing was the point of electing Trump

I know the left and the MSM want to talk us into a recession, but don’t get too excited about your news.

Moron.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...t-worry-so-much-about-weak-manufacturing-data

Goldman Says Don’t Worry So Much About Weak Manufacturing Data

Markets pay too much attention to manufacturing data and shouldn’t be overly concerned about recent weakness in the sector, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Manufacturing drives about a third of the bond-market impact of growth data surprises and that’s probably more than it should be, Goldman economists including Daan Struyven wrote in a note July 19. Economic statistics are disproportionately focused on manufacturing and only “slowly evolving” their way out despite the drop in its share of gross domestic product to around 10%, they said.

“It is important not to get too obsessed with ups and downs in manufacturing data to assess the overall pace of economic growth,” the report said. “We are therefore not too worried about the Q2 slowing of manufacturing data, which likely reflects an inventory adjustment, weaker foreign growth, and 2018 dollar appreciation.”

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting at the end of this month, economists and strategists have been watching fragility in manufacturing as a potential key to whether, or how much, policy makers decide to cut rates. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI has been on a downward trajectory for more than a year and dropped into contraction territory in May and June. U.S. manufacturing output has fallen in consecutive quarters, the common definition of recession within the industry.

Goldman estimates that manufacturing data like the ISM and industrial production reports account for 25% to 45% of the bond market impact of activity data surprises, while the sector now accounts for only 20% of the volatility in overall output growth and 10% of the volatility in job growth.

“We warn against putting excessive weight on ups and downs in manufacturing data,” Goldman said. “Manufacturing is not the economy.”
Apologist and Revisionist.

Moron.
 

TruthSeeker

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Yes! What's a few hundred thousand people losing their homes/jobs/life savings so we can gain political power! You know a recession would do that, right?
Keeping him in power would do more damage to more people.
 

justthefacts

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Like I said: A three point shooter got hot and hit 50% of his threes over a period of 4 games. He had replaced a 3 point shooter that had been hitting at 25%. After the hot stretch the three point shooter "cooled" to 40% for the rest of the year. Because he was no longer shooting at 50% should the fans be wishing for the 25% shooter to return?


We are way above where Obama was- even if the contraction you are hoping and praying for happens.


https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi
 

bga1

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I don't think you understand the graph you are posting. It is the measure of where things are headed as compared to where they just were. It is natural that when you have a two year hot run that there is going to be cooling in the streak. In this case that bit of cooling is at a far better level than the rising curve in 2014. More people are working and producing now, than at that time. This is not a comparison between the level of manufacturing activity in 2014 (for example) versus today. It is a trend line. So again a guy might have weighed 300 in 2014 and lost 100 pounds by 2018. Then in 2019 he gains 10 pounds so he is now at 210. He still weighs far less and is better off in 2019, even though he is gaining a little weight at the moment. You are grasping at straws to cook up a story that just doesn't exist.
 

justthefacts

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It's funny that you explain away the current decline by saying it's natural to have some cooling after a two year hot run, and then subsequently post an article that only looks at the last two years of Obama's Presidency.

 

Deleted_User

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I don't think you understand the graph you are posting. It is the measure of where things are headed as compared to where they just were. It is natural that when you have a two year hot run that there is going to be cooling in the streak. In this case that bit of cooling is at a far better level than the rising curve in 2014. More people are working and producing now, than at that time. This is not a comparison between the level of manufacturing activity in 2014 (for example) versus today. It is a trend line. So again a guy might have weighed 300 in 2014 and lost 100 pounds by 2018. Then in 2019 he gains 10 pounds so he is now at 210. He still weighs far less and is better off in 2019, even though he is gaining a little weight at the moment. You are grasping at straws to cook up a story that just doesn't exist.
Insert into the graph when the tariffs hit. Then watch the graph decline sharply. Add in more tariffs, the line decelerates even faster. Everything you just said was political and not economic. The story not only exists, it is a growing story.
 

cncmin

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to be clear - "the left" is not rooting for an economic collapse. But - they are ready and willing to point out that - IF the economy takes a down-turn, it will not help Trump's chances for re-election.

It's like saying, I don't root for Aaron Rodgers to get hurt - but if he does get hurt, that helps the Vikings' chances.
Are you saying that unlike the Republicans, who intentionally tried to contract the economy through Sequestration and government shutdowns under the previous President, the Democrats haven't been taking active measures to crash the economy?
 

cncmin

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Trump just "hereby ordered" American businesses how to conduct themselves. I look forward to The Fellas screaming "socialist" at him and condemning him.
That's more Fascist than Socialist.
 

bga1

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Insert into the graph when the tariffs hit. Then watch the graph decline sharply. Add in more tariffs, the line decelerates even faster. Everything you just said was political and not economic. The story not only exists, it is a growing story.
Again- he doesn't really understand what he posted- the economy is still hot, better than at any time during the Obama era. If the tariffs stick there will be damage. That's too bad but at some point we need to face our problems, which Trump is doing now.
 

justthefacts

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Section2

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Are you saying that unlike the Republicans, who intentionally tried to contract the economy through Sequestration and government shutdowns under the previous President, the Democrats haven't been taking active measures to crash the economy?
has a government shutdown ever crashed the economy? Ever?
 

bga1

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So justnofacts - should an American president take steps to ensure a more favorable solution for America with respect to trade?

Yes or no.

Did your hero D president take steps? If so, what steps?
Well he did ship that 1.8 billion to Iran so they at least like us...
 

justthefacts

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Well he did ship that 1.8 billion to Iran so they at least like us...
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44989775/...signs-trade-deals-biggest-nafta/#.XW6vNihKi2c
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...0540e4-0fd0-11e6-93ae-50921721165d_story.html
https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-of...015/january/fact-sheet-obama-administration’s
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-32498715



I do really like the fact that it's OK that Dear Leader is actively tanking the economy because The Greatest Negotiator and Deal-maker of All Time is no worse than The Great Socialist Muslim Foreigner President.
 
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howeda7

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Well he did ship that 1.8 billion to Iran so they at least like us...
The stock market is flat for the last calendar year since the Stable Genius began his trade war. Does that still qualify as a "roaring" economy?
 
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