The Stable Genius’s trade war not going so well

howeda7

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Tariffs are the greatest thing ever. It's now part of the GOP platform.
 

diehard

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The left taken residence in Crazytown. That includes the loony DFL posters on tOTB. I hate to admit it, but I find it extremely enjoyable. LOL!
 

justthefacts

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<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<iframe src='https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/embed/?s=ustbtot&v=201809051404x&d1=20130101&d2=20181231&h=300&w=600' height='300' width='600' frameborder='0' scrolling='no'></iframe><br />source: <a href='https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade'>tradingeconomics.com</a>

<iframe src='https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/embed/?s=ustbtot&v=201809051404x&d1=20170101&d2=20181231&h=300&w=600' height='300' width='600' frameborder='0' scrolling='no'></iframe><br />source: <a href='https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade'>tradingeconomics.com</a>
 

bga1

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Meanwhile, in real life.....

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bga1

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bga1

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justthefacts

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Trumpists keep trotting out the nominal wage growth numbers while completely ignoring the real wage growth numbers. This is especially salient when you're discussing the impacts of a trade war given that in general the costs of tariffs are passed on to consumers.

August's numbers haven't come out yet, but given that it will only be 1/12th different from the July numbers, they're pretty informative:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf



The 0.2% drop YOY was the largest since April 2012:

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2018/r...rcent-over-the-12-months-ending-july-2018.htm
 
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bga1

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Trumpists keep trotting out the nominal wage growth numbers while completely ignoring the real wage growth numbers. This is especially salient when you're discussing the impacts of a trade war given that in general the costs of tariffs are passed on to consumers.

August's numbers haven't come out yet, but given that it will only be 1/12th different from the July numbers, they're pretty informative:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf



The 0.2% drop YOY was the largest since April 2012:

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2018/r...rcent-over-the-12-months-ending-july-2018.htm
So the idea here - if these figures are accurate...is that real wages are down because of inflation. Okay- let's accept that idea for a moment. Tax rates are down. Is that figured into this? If a person is taking home 5% more each paycheck isn't that a really big deal (even though the Dems call it "crumbs") compared to a .2% reduction in the real wage? Then if a person happens to be doing well enough to be saving money- they might be getting a little more in interest bearing accounts and a lot more in investment accounts than before. What say you? I think that the average person is a lot better off than a year or two ago.

Also note that the biggest adjustment is fewer hours. I can tell you that in a full employment economy, its not because the employers are not offering the hours. It is because the employees have the money and are taking time off work because the can again. That's a wonderful thing!
 
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Unregistered User

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Meanwhile, in real life.....

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Meanwhile, in real life...

July job growth revised downward by 10k.
 

bga1

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This is what bad looks like.... I think Justin from Canada will be back at the bargaining table soon.

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Costa Rican Gopher

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This is what bad looks like.... I think Justin from Canada will be back at the bargaining table soon.

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
How many times can Canada lose that many jobs, and still have any jobs? They are being devastated.
 

justthefacts

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So the idea here - if these figures are accurate...is that real wages are down because of inflation. Okay- let's accept that idea for a moment. Tax rates are down. Is that figured into this? If a person is taking home 5% more each paycheck isn't that a really big deal (even though the Dems call it "crumbs") compared to a .2% reduction in the real wage? Then if a person happens to be doing well enough to be saving money- they might be getting a little more in interest bearing accounts and a lot more in investment accounts than before. What say you? I think that the average person is a lot better off than a year or two ago.

Also note that the biggest adjustment is fewer hours. I can tell you that in a full employment economy, its not because the employers are not offering the hours. It is because the employees have the money and are taking time off work because the can again. That's a wonderful thing!
A) "if these figures are accurate": Are you suggesting that BLS stats may not be accurate? Because if so, you might want to re-examine your first couple of posts in this thread.

B) The problem is that wage growth (or reduction) is compounding. If your wages grow by a percent this year, whatever percent they grow by next year is added to that. The tax cut doesn't work like that. In fact, not only does the tax cut not compound, the tax cuts actually go down over time. Regardless, I can't honestly believe your point is that we don't need wage growth anymore because taxes are down.

C) People in the middle-class got an average tax cut of 1.6%, nowhere near the 5% you quote. The lower-class got less than 1% https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/tax...-most-benefits-going-those-making-300000-plus

D) Look at the table again. Hours are up year-over-year.
 
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justthefacts

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This is what bad looks like.... I think Justin from Canada will be back at the bargaining table soon.

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Yes, I'm sure the average American worker thinks to himself, "who needs a raise, as long as Canadians are suffering?"
 

cncmin

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So the idea here - if these figures are accurate...is that real wages are down because of inflation. Okay- let's accept that idea for a moment. Tax rates are down. Is that figured into this? If a person is taking home 5% more each paycheck isn't that a really big deal (even though the Dems call it "crumbs") compared to a .2% reduction in the real wage? Then if a person happens to be doing well enough to be saving money- they might be getting a little more in interest bearing accounts and a lot more in investment accounts than before. What say you? I think that the average person is a lot better off than a year or two ago.

Also note that the biggest adjustment is fewer hours. I can tell you that in a full employment economy, its not because the employers are not offering the hours. It is because the employees have the money and are taking time off work because the can again. That's a wonderful thing!
Dear lord you are clueless.
 

Costa Rican Gopher

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Yes, I'm sure the average American worker thinks to himself, "who needs a raise, as long as Canadians are suffering?"
Sept 7th, 2018:

"American wages unexpectedly climbed in August by the most since the recession ended in 2009"

"Average hourly earnings for private workers increased 2.9 percent from a year earlier, a Labor Department report showed Friday, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey"


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-07/u-s-payrolls-rise-201-000-while-wage-gains-accelerate-to-2-9
 

howeda7

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Yes, I'm sure the average American worker thinks to himself, "who needs a raise, as long as Canadians are suffering?"
Well, some believe that the "economic anxiety" suffered by many whites is due in part not having anyone to feel superior over anymore....
 

justthefacts

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Sept 7th, 2018:

"American wages unexpectedly climbed in August by the most since the recession ended in 2009"

"Average hourly earnings for private workers increased 2.9 percent from a year earlier, a Labor Department report showed Friday, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey"


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-07/u-s-payrolls-rise-201-000-while-wage-gains-accelerate-to-2-9
I responded to this exact stat earlier in the thread. Real vs nominal.
 

diehard

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You should not be accessing BLS statistics. They are too complicated for you to analyze. Even the graphs. cnc too.
 

diehard

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Well, some believe that the "economic anxiety" suffered by many whites is due in part not having anyone to feel superior over anymore....
We will always have you, howdy.
 

cncmin

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I responded to this exact stat earlier in the thread. Real vs nominal.
Please forgive CRidiculousG for being unable to read. It's just not his strength. If you want to know all about ridiculous RW conspiracy theories, though, he's the expert.
 

diehard

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You would be able to do a better job of keyboarding if you stopped that forklift to post.
 

bga1

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Dear lord you are clueless.
That's always possible but you were unable to respond. What have I said that was wrong? I would think that a genius like you would have some information. Guess not.
 

Costa Rican Gopher

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It's a shame people like you have joined forces with the Koch Bros and corporate interests, in rooting for our enemy, in this trade war that they started.

No one debates that China is unfair in their trade practices. No one debates that China gains, while we lose. The only argument against fixing it, is that there will be short term pain. The good news is, China's losing and will cede on many points, to our benefit.

The bad news is before it can get better, it's likely to get worse. Like setting a broken bone. It hurts like crazy while they're setting it, but the alternative is an arm that never works properly again. Who in their right mind would suggest we leave the arm broken?
 

jamiche

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You should not be accessing BLS statistics. They are too complicated for you to analyze. Even the graphs. cnc too.
I thought you don't believe anything the Deep State puts out, poor dial up.
 
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