The rockford file: Notes on the Nebraska game

PMWinSTP

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The first touchdown is cover 3 (3 deep...corners and FS have deep 1/3). Durr doesn't have contain on cover 3!

It would be the DE or OLB depending on the call. It appears it'd be the DE based on his location (outside shoulder of OT) and the OLB's agrressiveness sucking inside on the ride.

True, Durr missed the tackle, but he for sure doesn't have contain.
Also zebras missed an obvious hold on the DE on I believe the last long run. Tries to disengage the block and turn and basically his head and hips are turning towards the sidelines and his shoulders are still pointing into the backfield...tackle has his mitts gripped on the outside of the shoulder pads.
 

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I know his name, but in questioning it, I feel it's better to refer to him by number than directly naming him like I'm calling him out.
If it's positive, I'll use names, if it's questioning a possible negative, I'll use numbers.
Next time use KM21. It's the way to go.

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rockford

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The first touchdown is cover 3 (3 deep...corners and FS have deep 1/3). Durr doesn't have contain on cover 3!

It's not that simple. The corner could very well have contain, depending on what the defense is doing on a particular play. And a corner doesn't simply take the deep third if a run is coming his way.

Watch again. Yes, it's conceivable Martin may have contain on the first TD ... but he makes an immediate reaction inside, while Durr hesitates on the periphery before taking an ill-advised hop inside that leaves him out of position. By all appearances, he's playing contain.

On the second TD, Durr is untouched and has outside leverage, and still misses the tackle. Yeah, it looks like Martin had a poor read (and a non-aggressive move) and was an easy target for a stalk block by the slot.

JTG
 

Spoofin

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BTN had a graphic at the start of the game, pointing out that since 2000, only seven B1G freshman QBs have passed for more than 1,100 yards. ZA is one of them. Anyone calling for him to be benched is likely named Morgan.
That stat means virtually nothing at all. How many B1G freshman QBs since 2000 have had enough attempts to pass for 1,100? More than 7? Did it take ZA more or fewer attempts to reach this arbitrary threshold than the other 6? This stat is like using total yards or TD passes to rate all-time Gopher QBs.


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rockford

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Also zebras missed an obvious hold on the DE on I believe the last long run. Tries to disengage the block and turn and basically his head and hips are turning towards the sidelines and his shoulders are still pointing into the backfield...tackle has his mitts gripped on the outside of the shoulder pads.
Yeah, I noticed that, too. A little tough to pick up, since the play is going away from the camera, but it sure looked like a hold.

JTG
 

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That stat means virtually nothing at all. How many B1G freshman QBs since 2000 have had enough attempts to pass for 1,100? More than 7? Did it take ZA more or fewer attempts to reach this arbitrary threshold than the other 6? This stat is like using total yards or TD passes to rate all-time Gopher QBs.
A few recent freshman (including RS FR) quarterbacks for the U:
QB1: % completions = 55.1; yards per attempt = 7.9; QB Rating: 131.9
QB2: % completions = 52.7; yards per attempt = 6.8; QB Rating: 117.6
QB3: % completions = 49.3; yards per attempt = 5.7; QB Rating: 104.4
QB4: % completions = 57.5; yards per attempt = 5.6; QB Rating: 120.8

Guess the names :)
 

rockford

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This stat is like using total yards or TD passes to rate all-time Gopher QBs.


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So if Adam Weber isn't the Gophers' all-time top QB, who is? Cuz he has 3,500 more yards than the No. 2 guy, and 17 more TDs.

Few stats provide perfect measure. In this case, the point is simply that he's doing something few have achieved at his age.

JTG
 

rockford

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A few recent freshman (including RS FR) quarterbacks for the U:
QB1: % completions = 55.1; yards per attempt = 7.9; QB Rating: 131.9
QB2: % completions = 52.7; yards per attempt = 6.8; QB Rating: 117.6
QB3: % completions = 49.3; yards per attempt = 5.7; QB Rating: 104.4
QB4: % completions = 57.5; yards per attempt = 5.6; QB Rating: 120.8

Guess the names :)
Annexstad is QB#2 on your list. Since you have the data handy, what are the number of attempts per QB?

JTG
 

Zeppelin Gopher

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I know his name, but in questioning it, I feel it's better to refer to him by number than directly naming him like I'm calling him out.
If it's positive, I'll use names, if it's questioning a possible negative, I'll use numbers.
I'm going to start archiving your most ridiculous posts.
 

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So if Adam Weber isn't the Gophers' all-time top QB, who is? Cuz he has 3,500 more yards than the No. 2 guy, and 17 more TDs.

Few stats provide perfect measure. In this case, the point is simply that he's doing something few have achieved at his age.

JTG
Can you tell which one in my above post is Weber? (not arguing your point - just seeing if you can tell)
 

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Annexstad is QB#2 on your list. Since you have the data handy, what are the number of attempts per QB?

JTG
I left out the attempts because that might give away some of the answers, but I will say they all 4 had a "significant" number of attempts. Plus, I already shut down the stats web page :)
 

Iceland12

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The reason could be that the coaching staff feels that Annexstad is the better QB? The same reason why Leidner always played injured.
On one leg? Saturday's game then showed they were wrong then didn't it. You think that Liedner should have been kept running out there when he was hurt and they had a healthy back-up really to play?

We disagree.

Can't remember what Leidner's were injuries were. Can't remember what you said at the time. Do know that I typed that I thought that playing Leidner why he was injured wasn't a good idea. Looking back, thats' probably a major reason why Nelson and Chris Streveler left. If they wouldn't even get to play when Leidner was injured why stick around at all.

Leidner's "yeah, I was hurt but I could play" post game comments didn't make it better. Particularly when they lost. Don't remember them talking about hurt he was after a victory. Though do remember a time or two when Leidner went out of his way to say he was healthy.
 

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On one leg? Saturday's game then showed they were wrong then didn't it. You think that Liedner should have been kept running out there when he was hurt and they had a healthy back-up really to play?

We disagree.

Can't remember what Leidner's were injuries were. Can't remember what you said at the time. Do know that I typed that I thought that playing Leidner why he was injured wasn't a good idea. Looking back, thats' probably a major reason why Nelson and Chris Streveler left. If they wouldn't even get to play when Leidner was injured why stick around at all.

Leidner's "yeah, I was hurt but I could play" post game comments didn't make it better. Particularly when they lost. Don't remember them talking about hurt he was after a victory. Though do remember a time or two when Leidner went out of his way to say he was healthy.
I never got the sense Leidner's passing (or mobility related to passing) was affected much by his injuries. I think it is why we saw him on fewer designed runs later in his career though. He was a very good runner early on in his career.
 

rockford

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QB#1 is Leidner, who had 619 yards
QB#3 is Nelson, who had 873 yards.
QB#4 is Weber, who had 2,895 yards. (I think the Gophers were 1-11 that year, weren't they? Lots o' opportunity to pass.)

ZA has 1,277 yards -- which is on pace for 2,189 over 12 games.

My point in that other thread is that ZA's performance (at least as measured by QB rating) is not that far off from the program's all-time top passer. That's why I can't understand those who want him benched.

JTG
 

short ornery norwegian

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the talk about "big plays" reminds me of the coach at my high school. the team wasn't very good, so we lost a lot of lop-sided games. after every game, the coach had the same speech:

"If you take away those 3 or 4 big plays by the other team, we were right in the game."

Which sounds great, but in reality, those big plays are part of the game.

But, the main question is still unanswered: are the players doing what they're supposed to (meaning the scheme is flawed) - or are the players not doing what they're supposed to? Fleck's comments seem to indicate the second option.
 

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may be different if we had a rich tradition of QB's, or even an above average tradition of QB's
 

short ornery norwegian

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QB#1 is Leidner, who had 619 yards
QB#3 is Nelson, who had 873 yards.
QB#4 is Weber, who had 2,895 yards. (I think the Gophers were 1-11 that year, weren't they? Lots o' opportunity to pass.)

ZA has 1,277 yards -- which is on pace for 2,189 over 12 games.

My point in that other thread is that ZA's performance (at least as measured by QB rating) is not that far off from the program's all-time top passer. That's why I can't understand those who want him benched.

JTG
People are not saying bench Annexstad because he's no good. They're saying he can't play up to his potential because he's injured, and they would rather see a healthy QB over an injured QB - especially if the healthy QB gives the team another offensive option as a running threat.

Nobody is knocking Annexstad's ability or toughness. but when you're hurt, you're hurt. at least give him a week off to rest and heal up.

if you're arguing that it's better to play an injured player over a healthy player, then that injured player had better be a LOT better than the healthy player. I don't think that's the case.
 

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QB#1 is Leidner, who had 619 yards
QB#3 is Nelson, who had 873 yards.
QB#4 is Weber, who had 2,895 yards. (I think the Gophers were 1-11 that year, weren't they? Lots o' opportunity to pass.)

ZA has 1,277 yards -- which is on pace for 2,189 over 12 games.

My point in that other thread is that ZA's performance (at least as measured by QB rating) is not that far off from the program's all-time top passer. That's why I can't understand those who want him benched.

JTG
I think the only reason people want him benched is because he doesn't seem healthy enough (ankle) to keep himself safe and effective. Otherwise he's fine.
 

rockford

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But, the main question is still unanswered: are the players doing what they're supposed to (meaning the scheme is flawed) - or are the players not doing what they're supposed to? Fleck's comments seem to indicate the second option.
That's the big question, isn't it?

I started watching tape closely to see how Faalele was doing. I got into it a bit further this weekend, to try to tell what the hell happened in a game we should have been in. The reality is that it's very tough for an outsider to know for sure. All we can do is take our best guess based on the visible evidence.

My guess is that the biggest issue is personnel, rather than scheme.

JTG
 

rockford

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People are not saying bench Annexstad because he's no good. They're saying he can't play up to his potential because he's injured, and they would rather see a healthy QB over an injured QB - especially if the healthy QB gives the team another offensive option as a running threat.

Nobody is knocking Annexstad's ability or toughness. but when you're hurt, you're hurt. at least give him a week off to rest and heal up.

if you're arguing that it's better to play an injured player over a healthy player, then that injured player had better be a LOT better than the healthy player. I don't think that's the case.
In this thread, several have made the case that ZA shouldn't play for health reasons. They may be right. I don't know. A person would have to be at practice every day and talk to the medical staff to know for sure.

But ... I do know that several posters wanted him dumped earlier in the season, and health had nothing to do with it. That's why I wrote the "perception and projection" post.

JTG
 

paulser21

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He's got a name, Kamal Martin. He's a Junior from Burnsville. You show all kinds of respect, and excuse mistakes for Coach Fleck. You could learn, or at least look up, the name for somebody who puts their body on the line for "your team" before you call him out.
I could be wrong, went back and watched some replays. Looked at some google images as well. Player#21 is actually named Minnesota. It also looked like he has a lot of family on the team as well. Just saying....
 

Iceland12

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ESPN created "Total QB Rating" in 201. It's been modified since. An "analytics" approach if you will. Mentioned this earlier in the season and Zach was in the middle of the pack. Since it didn't list Zach up near the top, many didn't appreciate it. He's a true Freshman, expected him to be very good this early is expecting too much.

Right now Zach has a QB rating of 49.7. 90th out of 133 QB's. Tua Tagovailoa, ALA is 1st at 97.5 and Kyler Murray, OKLA is 2nd at 96.9.

Interestingly enough, Morgan is ranked 88th at 49.8. It's not a question of ability, it's a question of health.

http://www.espn.com/ncf/qbr/_/page/2


Here's a partial explanation of the formula:

What Total QBR Captures

In particular for college football, we introduce this year the Total Quarterback Rating, also known as Total QBR or QBR. And, since college football has imbalanced schedules, QBR will be seen in both a form that adjusts for defenses faced - often called Opponent-Adjusted QBR or Adjusted QBR - and in a form that doesn't adjust for defense, often called Raw QBR or Unadjusted QBR.

The scale of QBR is from zero to 100, where 50 is average. Top quarterbacks are in the upper 80s and 90s for a season. Manziel, in fact, ranked first in QBR in 2012 with a value of 90.5. His unadjusted value was 86.4, also the best among FBS schools. The increase from unadjusted to adjusted reflects that he did face good defenses overall.

Unlike NCAA Passer Efficiency, which uses only box score statistics, Total QBR accounts for what a quarterback does on a play-by-play level, meaning it accounts for down, distance, field position, as well as the clock and score. A 5-yard gain on third-and-4 is a good play, whereas a 5-yard gain on third-and-14 isn't. A 20-yard touchdown pass when tied in the second quarter means more than a 20-yard touchdown pass when down 30 points late in the fourth quarter. QBR accounts for those things using analysis that turns traditional productivity into points on the scoreboard and wins in the standings.

It also accounts for a quarterback's ability to scramble, his ability to run on designed rush plays, how well he avoids sacks, drawing and committing penalties, and all-important fumbles, which can be significant for quarterbacks...


http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/9612585/total-quarterback-rating-college-football
 
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Iceland12

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I could be wrong, went back and watched some replays. Looked at some google images as well. Player#21 is actually named Minnesota. It also looked like he has a lot of family on the team as well. Just saying....
;)
 

OddStack

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It's not that simple. The corner could very well have contain, depending on what the defense is doing on a particular play. And a corner doesn't simply take the deep third if a run is coming his way.

Watch again. Yes, it's conceivable Martin may have contain on the first TD ... but he makes an immediate reaction inside, while Durr hesitates on the periphery before taking an ill-advised hop inside that leaves him out of position. By all appearances, he's playing contain.

On the second TD, Durr is untouched and has outside leverage, and still misses the tackle. Yeah, it looks like Martin had a poor read (and a non-aggressive move) and was an easy target for a stalk block by the slot.

JTG
Yes it is that simple. They are in cover 3. Never, ever, ever will a CB have primary contain (the first one to turn a play in) cover 3. (In some cases, they may become a football player and make a tackle on a sweep for no gain while in cover 3, but that's not by design.) He will have secodary contain (contain when primary contain doesn't do his job and the ball is to the CB....what happened on the first TD) in cover 3. They are playing cover 3 on the first TD. Lastly, show me a corner that comes up too fast on cover 3 and I'll show you a halfback pass for a TD. That's why CBs are not primary contain in cover 3; it's unsound. HB TD passes happen even when they're secondary contain and supposed to be slower to react.

Yes, cover 2 could be called or cover 6 in which cases a CB can and will have primary contain, but that is not the call on the first play.
 

rockford

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ESPN created "Total QB Rating" that they created in 2011 and have been modified since. An "analytics" approach if you will. Mentioned this earlier in the season and Zach was in the middle of the pack. Since it didn't list Zach up near the top, many didn't appreciate it. He's a true Freshman, expected him to be very good this early is expecting too much.

Right now Zach has a QB rating of 49.7. 90th out of 133 QB's. Tua Tagovailoa, ALA is 1st at 97.5 and Kyler Murray, OKLA is 2nd at 96.9.

Interestingly enough, Morgan is ranked 88th at 49.8. It's not a question of ability, it's a question of health.

http://www.espn.com/ncf/qbr/_/page/2


Here's a partial explanation of the formula:

What Total QBR Captures

In particular for college football, we introduce this year the Total Quarterback Rating, also known as Total QBR or QBR. And, since college football has imbalanced schedules, QBR will be seen in both a form that adjusts for defenses faced - often called Opponent-Adjusted QBR or Adjusted QBR - and in a form that doesn't adjust for defense, often called Raw QBR or Unadjusted QBR.

The scale of QBR is from zero to 100, where 50 is average. Top quarterbacks are in the upper 80s and 90s for a season. Manziel, in fact, ranked first in QBR in 2012 with a value of 90.5. His unadjusted value was 86.4, also the best among FBS schools. The increase from unadjusted to adjusted reflects that he did face good defenses overall.

Unlike NCAA Passer Efficiency, which uses only box score statistics, Total QBR accounts for what a quarterback does on a play-by-play level, meaning it accounts for down, distance, field position, as well as the clock and score. A 5-yard gain on third-and-4 is a good play, whereas a 5-yard gain on third-and-14 isn't. A 20-yard touchdown pass when tied in the second quarter means more than a 20-yard touchdown pass when down 30 points late in the fourth quarter. QBR accounts for those things using analysis that turns traditional productivity into points on the scoreboard and wins in the standings.

It also accounts for a quarterback's ability to scramble, his ability to run on designed rush plays, how well he avoids sacks, drawing and committing penalties, and all-important fumbles, which can be significant for quarterbacks...


http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/9612585/total-quarterback-rating-college-football
Interesting stuff.

Just out of curiosity, I checked the top 10 QBs. 3 SRs, 4 JRs and 3 SO. Couldn't immediately tell if any had the benefit of a RS season.

(And no, I'm not trying to compare ZA to the top 10 QBs in the country. :D)

JTG
 
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