The Price of Reopening the Economy: Tens of Thousands of American Lives

justthefacts

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Something tells me, and it's really just a guess, that in real life you don't know the first single solitary thing about how to run a business. I know, I know, call me crazy... It's just a guess
In this thread I provided lots of data from the restaurant industry saying they can't survive at 50% of their previous business.

No, I don't own a restaurant. Do you?
 

GophersInIowa

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People appear to be scared to return to normal in Colorado. I guess we'll wait for the massive surge of death in two weeks.

IMO, people that want businesses to get opened up right away should be pissed at things like this. The argument by many that want things opened up is that people are smart, they'll still do the right things (social distance, limit number of customers at one time). If they wanted to prove a point, they should have opened up with a bunch of safety precautions in place. Instead they're creating more ammunition for those that say businesses should stay closed.
 

Panthadad2

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Based on everything we know. We know it's more contagious than the flu, and the flu infects restaurant workers disproportionately. We know that the virus was passed to several people on a single bus in China, including one who got on the bus after the initial person got off. We know it spread like crazy at the Biogen conference.
Simple. You, personally, should choose not to go to any location with congregate social activity. Many people do not share your level of risk aversion. The obligation to avoid social activity in the general population needs to shift from government enforcement to personal choice very soon before our standards of living are permanently impacted (if not already happening).

Now that we have the data to show who's at risk, those at-risk populations need to be the focus...not the general population.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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Based on everything we know. We know it's more contagious than the flu, and the flu infects restaurant workers disproportionately. We know that the virus was passed to several people on a single bus in China, including one who got on the bus after the initial person got off. We know it spread like crazy at the Biogen conference.
We weren't talking about buses or conferences, we were talking about restaurants at 50% capacity. Nice pivot.

The only restaurant study I've seen is the one you keep promoting using China data, and it wasn't at 50% capacity. Their workers also didn't get sick.
 

Panthadad2

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We weren't talking about buses or conferences, we were talking about restaurants at 50% capacity. Nice pivot.

The only restaurant study I've seen is the one you keep promoting using China data, and it wasn't at 50% capacity. Their workers also didn't get sick.
Just an FYI, the Jax Café owner (per a video someone shared here) thought his business wouldn't work at 50% capacity and might force him to close. That type of business, with high infrastructure costs and reliant on periods of peak social attendance demand (weekend evenings, lunches, events), probably won't work. Those peak times pay the bills...and the bills to support the real estate, equipment and staff are large.

Other restaurants and small business that don't rely on peak in-person attendance, or with low overhead/infrastructure (small pizza shops are doing well), can do OK or at least probably scrape by for a while.
 

Section2

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The point is that a restaurant that is running at 50% of its capacity will very effectively transmit the virus, but will very ineffectively allow the restaurant to continue to remain open.

I like how you're refutation of the data itself is that you basically don't like it. Here's the full study. Dive in and offer your detailed critiques:


And here's the data viz tool that they built:


There’s no evidence that restaurants will transmit the virus at 50% but not 25%, and we don’t know what innovative measures restaurants might take to ensure the safety of their guests. And we have no reason to believe a restaurant is any more dangerous than crowded Targets or Grocery stores.
You are attempting to own the lockdown from a safety narrative, but pass along the economic blame. No. Choose.
 

KillerGopherFan

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you would think they have access to an entire set of information that we don't. We're still talking about keeping schools closed in the fall. They should be open right now.
B/c it’s PURELY POLITICAL for some.
 

justthefacts

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Stricter shutdown vs a much less strict shutdown. Started about the same time. Which curve would you rather have? I know which one I would choose.
The goalposts are moving. You posted that the Swiss were opening up without mentioning this tradeoff. And then S2 implied that the only reason that the Swiss might be opening up is they know something we don't. Now you're saying, sure, they've had a lot fewer deaths, but it wasn't worth it.

BTW, the excess death data is even more telling:






BTW, the Swiss unemployment rate is 3.3 percent


 

GopherWeatherGuy

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The goalposts are moving. You posted that the Swiss were opening up without mentioning this tradeoff. And then S2 implied that the only reason that the Swiss might be opening up is they know something we don't. Now you're saying, sure, they've had a lot fewer deaths, but it wasn't worth it.

BTW, the excess death data is even more telling:






BTW, the Swiss unemployment rate is 3.3 percent


I'm pretty sure S2 was being sarcastic.

There's no doubt there was going to be excess deaths. Like a lot of places, the majority were elderly and in Swiss nursing homes. Not only does the US now have more excess deaths, we have a more broken society and economy.

Far more US states should have treated this like Switzerland and not like Italy/NYC. South Dakota was pretty close to taking the Swiss route. Not only does their death rate remain low, their hospitals were not overwhelmed, and they're now taking in patients from Sioux City.

Minnesota is doing some of the worst harm to itself, to save the least.
 

Section2

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No, you can access this website in the United States too



I was referring to the "it is very rare for children to transmit and get the virus. children very rarely infect other children". Do you have a chart or tweet for this?
 

justthefacts

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I'm pretty sure S2 was being sarcastic.

There's no doubt there was going to be excess deaths. Like a lot of places, the majority were elderly and in Swiss nursing homes. Not only does the US now have more excess deaths, we have a more broken society and economy.

Far more US states should have treated this like Switzerland and not like Italy/NYC. South Dakota was pretty close to taking the Swiss route. Not only does their death rate remain low, their hospitals were not overwhelmed, and they're now taking in patients from Sioux City.

Minnesota is doing some of the worst harm to itself, to save the least.
Are you confusing Sweden and Switzerland?

 

MplsGopher

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If Minnesota had gone the Sweden route, many more would have died and very little economic harm would have been avoided.
 

justthefacts

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I was referring to the "it is very rare for children to transmit and get the virus. children very rarely infect other children". Do you have a chart or tweet for this?
Oh, yes. It should have been so obvious that you were referring to one sentence in the 3rd of 4 screenshots in the tweet. How could I have missed it?

There were actually two studies published recently that school-aged children may be just as likely to transmit it as adults, and that studies showing otherwise may be simply a result of undertesting in children.


 

bga1

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Are you thus reconsidering your previous conclusions?
Are you reconsidering whether Trump was golfing during the Soleimani kill???
Are you reconsidering any of the thousands of deceptions you have retweeted here? I would hope so...
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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Are you thus reconsidering your previous conclusions?
Yes and no. Switzerland did lock down, and so did most of the US. Switzerland now has it at a controllable rate. So does most of the US. Many states did not have anywhere near the issues that the Swiss, NYC, and a few other states did. Minnesota is one of them. The Swiss also understand this is not completely going away, and using lock downs until it is gone is unreasonable.

Now a lot of states are smartly opening back up, with cities loosening their restrictions if they weren't state mandated.

Many other states are keeping people and business unnecessarily locked down, when the data doesn't support it. Minnesota is definitely one of these.

There's not a one size fits all solution for every US state and city. Yet some politicians continue down this path.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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I would have bet the house that GWG's post about the results in Switzerland were going to be like a dog whistle to some on the board.... an immediate and full onslaught counter attack!! Launched!
 

justthefacts

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I would have bet the house that GWG's post about the results in Switzerland were going to be like a dog whistle to some on the board.... an immediate and full onslaught counter attack!! Launched!
Oh, so you think Switzerland is a model that we should all adhere to, as GWG was implying when he posted it? And then S2 when he agreed?
 

Section2

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Oh, yes. It should have been so obvious that you were referring to one sentence in the 3rd of 4 screenshots in the tweet. How could I have missed it?

There were actually two studies published recently that school-aged children may be just as likely to transmit it as adults, and that studies showing otherwise may be simply a result of undertesting in children.


Well, I didn't think it was so obvious, but I clearly referenced opening schools and not total deaths.

So Switzerland is not listening to the SCIENCE and they are putting all their children in peril! I guess we'll find out when their kids start dropping like flies. Would you bet on them being right or wrong?
 

Section2

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Oh, so you think Switzerland is a model that we should all adhere to, as GWG was implying when he posted it? And then S2 when he agreed?
I think we should immediately end government mandated restrictions immediately. And I would welcome any and all progressives, scientists, and all around great people, to inform the public on what risks they think they should take or not take, what precautions, etc . And people like yourself and Bad can listen to those people and act accordingly. And I will listen to those people, and if I think they make sense, I will take their advice as well. Which model is that?

Because as your many charts have shown, the public is acting on their own and the lockdowns are ineffective.
 

kellyleeks

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We weren't talking about buses or conferences, we were talking about restaurants at 50% capacity. Nice pivot.

The only restaurant study I've seen is the one you keep promoting using China data, and it wasn't at 50% capacity. Their workers also didn't get sick.
Chinese restaurant data is not reliable as it excludes people with MSG allergies and over represents people who like buffets and strip malls.
 

justthefacts

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These are not the poll numbers of people itching to throw a few back down at Outback Steakhouse

 

GopherWeatherGuy

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These are not the poll numbers of people itching to throw a few back down at Outback Steakhouse

Yet #1 on that list is a Republican governor in Ohio, who is opening more than most other Democrat governors.

• Ohio: Gov. Mike DeWine announced plans to continue the reopening of the state’s economy. Nonessential medical procedures may resume and nonessential offices, construction and manufacturing businesses may start up. On May 12 retail stores may reopen. Certain sanitation and social distancing practices must be implemented. Restaurants can open to outside dining beginning May 15. Hair salons and other close-care businesses can reopen on May 15 as long as they abide by strict sanitation rules. Gyms and entertainment venues must stay closed. DeWine issued a safer-at-home order to last until May 29. Everyone using shared outdoor spaces must keep a distance of at least 6 feet, except for family members. Travelers arriving in Ohio are required to self-quarantine for 14 days.
 

Bad Gopher

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There’s no evidence that restaurants will transmit the virus at 50% but not 25%, and we don’t know what innovative measures restaurants might take to ensure the safety of their guests. And we have no reason to believe a restaurant is any more dangerous than crowded Targets or Grocery stores.
You are attempting to own the lockdown from a safety narrative, but pass along the economic blame. No. Choose.
I did somehow survive my night in the waiting room at Brookdale Toyota, where they've spaced the chairs out. But they're running at only partial capacity, and I don't know if they've laid people off or will have to. One way or another, half empty dining rooms could be an answer...or they could be the worst of both worlds: transmission AND bankruptcy.
 
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