The Price of Reopening the Economy: Tens of Thousands of American Lives

Cruze

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I think it's overblown, I have been wearing a mask and isolating. Most people who die are at or above the average age of death. Here is a pork plant with 400 infected workers and basically ALL of them asymptomatic. We need to open up and only isolate high risk individuals. They will only be safe when the rest of us reach herd immunity.
Approximately 20% of Covid-19 deaths in America are to people under the age of 65. Without social distancing the scientific consensus is that tens of thousands of additional deaths will occur for Americans under the age of 65 most of whom are working and supporting their families.

No, thanks. America isn't going to do it your way.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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Approximately 20% of Covid-19 deaths in America are to people under the age of 65. Without social distancing the scientific consensus is that tens of thousands of additional deaths will occur for Americans under the age of 65 most of whom are working and supporting their families.

No, thanks. America isn't going to do it your way.
And 12% of those were still over 55, most of which who were in poor health to begin with. Only 2.3% of US COVID deaths have been under 45.

It's pretty amazing that there are many states, mostly with republican leaders, that understand this data, have the lowest deaths per population, and are smartly opening things back up.

I guess those states aren't in your 'America'.
 

Spoofin

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Maybe. But how often does that happen? I mean we could be talking about 500 of those type of situations. People are acting like they know it's happening a lot and that the covid numbers are largely inflated.
I have no idea how often. I tend to agree with you that it is not a huge problem. I do think it happens tho, some.
 

Spoofin

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And 12% of those were still over 55, most of which who were in poor health to begin with. Only 2.3% of US COVID deaths have been under 45.

It's pretty amazing that there are many states, mostly with republican leaders, that understand this data, have the lowest deaths per population, and are smartly opening things back up.

I guess those states aren't in your 'America'.
Cruze works hard to make the Stats support his view. Why rain on his parade by exposing him like that?
 

bga1

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Approximately 20% of Covid-19 deaths in America are to people under the age of 65. Without social distancing the scientific consensus is that tens of thousands of additional deaths will occur for Americans under the age of 65 most of whom are working and supporting their families.

No, thanks. America isn't going to do it your way.
The scientific consensus? Settled science? This all sounds familiar....

So are you saying that now that we have flattened the curve and not obtained herd immunity it won't come back? I don't believe that the "scientific community" which has had a pretty bad record on modeling this, is saying that at all. Osterholm and others claim we will be battling this for two years (likely because we did flatten).
 

howeda7

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Maybe. But how often does that happen? I mean we could be talking about 500 of those type of situations. People are acting like they know it's happening a lot and that the covid numbers are largely inflated.
For many with an existing condition, COVID is still what killed them. Would they have lived another 3 months or 3 years with the other condition? Who knows. But they probably wouldn't be dead today. Reporting that as a COVID death is not "skewwing" the #'s or fraudulent. The # of cases where they're simply claiming COVID where it wasn't is small. And there are offsetting deaths not being counted in the other direction.
 

MplsGopher

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Let's see the science on this one, CantGetRockHard.
It's just common sense!

Just like eating meat and bone broth from cows that are grass fed, actually reduces the risk of cardiovasular disease and colon cancer. Duh! Hence why every person who can, should be willing to pay the 500% premium for grass-fed over conventional, for the inferior flavor!
 

Costa Rican Gopher

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The scientific consensus? Settled science? This all sounds familiar....

So are you saying that now that we have flattened the curve and not obtained herd immunity it won't come back? I don't believe that the "scientific community" which has had a pretty bad record on modeling this, is saying that at all. Osterholm and others claim we will be battling this for two years (likely because we did flatten).
Yep. This is what the left does when they can't make an honest point.
 

OldBob53

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After actually reading much of this thread I have a few observations.

1) Reported Corona cases and deaths are subject to error. There's evidence deaths are underreported because some states report only cases confirmed by testing.

2) The right wingers who claim hospitals are over counting Corona deaths lack any supporting evidence -- its mere conjecture.

3) The only way out of this mess is an effective, safe vaccine, which experts say is far from a certainty, even in 18 months.
 

justthefacts

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And 12% of those were still over 55, most of which who were in poor health to begin with. Only 2.3% of US COVID deaths have been under 45.

It's pretty amazing that there are many states, mostly with republican leaders, that understand this data, have the lowest deaths per population, and are smartly opening things back up.

I guess those states aren't in your 'America'.
Georgia has the 16th highest deaths per capita.
 

justthefacts

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I am dumber now for reading this.
“Conclusion 1: Gov’t shutdowns didn’t shut down the Economy, People did”.
You should examine the charts. They show that economic activity dropped in advance of government orders. That's why he said that.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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Georgia has the 16th highest deaths per capita.
So? Who is dying vs who isn't dying is what matters the most. It's not only about how many. There is a clear at risk group, which was known from the start of this.

So far the 17/18 flu season killed more in Georgia than Covid.

Screen Shot 2020-05-10 at 3.14.18 PM.png
 

Spoofin

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You should examine the charts. They show that economic activity dropped in advance of government orders. That's why he said that.
No one is saying it wouldn’t have dropped some anyways, but come on. He basically said, “Macy’s business didn’t drop because they were forced to close - it dropped because people didn’t go there.”
 

justthefacts

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I’ll say again, louder this time, why are shutdown proponents arguing they are ineffective and unnecessary?
Because fear of the virus is effective at doing the bad part of shutdowns (ie, hampering economic activity), but it doesn't suppress actual social interaction as fully as the shutdowns. As shown in the charts.
 

justthefacts

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So? Who is dying vs who isn't dying is what matters the most. It's not only about how many. There is a clear at risk group, which was known from the start of this.

So far the 17/18 flu season killed more in Georgia than Covid.

View attachment 7946
You said, "It's pretty amazing that there are many states, mostly with republican leaders, that understand this data, have the lowest deaths per population, and are smartly opening things back up. "

The bolded isn't true.

Assuming you got that chart from here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

It says:



The 2020 numbers are going to go up.

Oh, and here's South Carolina:

 

GopherWeatherGuy

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You said, "It's pretty amazing that there are many states, mostly with republican leaders, that understand this data, have the lowest deaths per population, and are smartly opening things back up. "

The bolded isn't true.

Assuming you got that chart from here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

It says:



The 2020 numbers are going to go up.
Sure they are, but it's not likely to be a significant jump because we know what the numbers are today.

I also said many states, not all. There are always exceptions.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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People appear to be scared to return to normal in Colorado. I guess we'll wait for the massive surge of death in two weeks.

 

howeda7

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You should examine the charts. They show that economic activity dropped in advance of government orders. That's why he said that.
It absolutely did. Sports started cancelling the same night as Trump's Oval Office speech, March 11th. Activity actually spiked a bit the following week-end as people ran out to get the things they'd been putting off. Starting on Monday the 16th, it cratered. Most states didn't shut down until 7-10 days later. There is a surge now as states open up. I suspect it won't last.
 

balds

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Businesses having the ability to be open and decide how they adapt to the current marketplace and make their business as safe as possible to visit. Consumers having the ability to make decisions for themselves on which (if any) business they visit. Crazy concept! Much better than the current system we are employing, which is extinguishing countless businesses and arbitrarily picks and chooses which businesses are allowed to operate. The numbers being low in GA point to the consumer having the ability to make such choices and exercising caution. Many businesses have ZERO chance under the current closings.

MN's Largest Candy store is allowed to open, but a little 1 employee boutique that might see 2-3 customers max at a time isn't. I could go on and on with dozens of similar examples.
 

Section2

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Because fear of the virus is effective at doing the bad part of shutdowns (ie, hampering economic activity), but it doesn't suppress actual social interaction as fully as the shutdowns. As shown in the charts.
Economic activity IS social activity. Additional social interaction is happening at grocery stores and targets and Home Depot’s.
I think you and your charts are full of shit.
 

justthefacts

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Economic activity IS social activity. Additional social interaction is happening at grocery stores and targets and Home Depot’s.
I think you and your charts are full of shit.
The point is that a restaurant that is running at 50% of its capacity will very effectively transmit the virus, but will very ineffectively allow the restaurant to continue to remain open.

I like how you're refutation of the data itself is that you basically don't like it. Here's the full study. Dive in and offer your detailed critiques:


And here's the data viz tool that they built:


 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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The point is that a restaurant that is running at 50% of its capacity will very effectively transmit the virus, but will very ineffectively allow the restaurant to continue to remain open.

I like how you're refutation of the data itself is that you basically don't like it. Here's the full study. Dive in and offer your detailed critiques:


And here's the data viz tool that they built:


Something tells me, and it's really just a guess, that in real life you don't know the first single solitary thing about how to run a business. I know, I know, call me crazy... It's just a guess
 

JimmyJamesMD

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The point is that a restaurant that is running at 50% of its capacity will very effectively transmit the virus, but will very ineffectively allow the restaurant to continue to remain open.

I like how you're refutation of the data itself is that you basically don't like it. Here's the full study. Dive in and offer your detailed critiques:


And here's the data viz tool that they built:


LOL. Did you expect the the GA economy to go back full strength after peoples lives were disrupted for almost a month?

Thats why those of that want to open up now want to do it ASAP. Because the damage already done is super hurtful and its going to take time to rebuild. The longer the shutdowns go, the longer and harder the rebound. This is economics 101
 

justthefacts

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Based on what?
Based on everything we know. We know it's more contagious than the flu, and the flu infects restaurant workers disproportionately. We know that the virus was passed to several people on a single bus in China, including one who got on the bus after the initial person got off. We know it spread like crazy at the Biogen conference.
 

justthefacts

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LOL. Did you expect the the GA economy to go back full strength after peoples lives were disrupted for almost a month?

Thats why those of that want to open up now want to do it ASAP. Because the damage already done is super hurtful and its going to take time to rebuild. The longer the shutdowns go, the longer and harder the rebound. This is economics 101
What about the part where activity dropped massively prior to lockdown? And all the polls saying that a large majority of people are worried lockdowns are being lifted prematurely?
 
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