The Price of Reopening the Economy: Tens of Thousands of American Lives

Ogee Oglethorpe

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They asked if people were comfortable. That's different from whether people shop online or go to restaurants all the time. The people who bought stuff on Amazon (myself included) in November 2019 weren't doing so because they weren't comfortable going to Target.

Here's a poll from NBC and the Wall Street Journal (actually conducted by someone else, just like the WaPo poll was done by the University of Maryland)






Those don't seem like the opinions of people who are going to rush back to restaurants.

But I'm sure your own personal opinion is more correct than 2 polls about how people will respond.
Again, what percentage of those people even go to restaurants in the first place? And you don't need 40, 60, 75% responding in the affirmative to make it reasonable and profitable for business owners to make the decision to open back up.

I know it's crazy to you and others, but as a business owner, you have a fairly strong grasp of what your client base is. If a business owner in Fort Collins, CO thinks it's safe and in his best interest to open back up and he is able to do so with additional safeguards and precautions put in place, are you in a position to tell him he can't? Or more to the point, who the f'k are you to tell him he shouldn't?
 

bottlebass

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The reporting of this virus is a hoax. Hospitals are incentivized to report Covid deaths- they make more money. Politicians are out for power.

Um no, hospitals would make way more money if this all just went away.
 

justthefacts

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Again, what percentage of those people even go to restaurants in the first place? And you don't need 40, 60, 75% responding in the affirmative to make it reasonable and profitable for business owners to make the decision to open back up.

I know it's crazy to you and others, but as a business owner, you have a fairly strong grasp of what your client base is. If a business owner in Fort Collins, CO thinks it's safe and in his best interest to open back up and he is able to do so with additional safeguards and precautions put in place, are you in a position to tell him he can't? Or more to the point, who the f'k are you to tell him he shouldn't?
You've kind of shifted the discussion from "will people come back" to "will it be enough" and even still you've got it wrong. For restaurants you definitely do need most of your customers to come back. There are a lot of fixed costs involved in simply opening for a night and restaurant margins are often quite thin. There are very few restaurants that can operate profitably at 50% of their previous traffic, and no restaurant can survive for long at 25%.










Your last sentence is a complete non-sequitir as the entire discussion is whether people will stay home of their own free will when they have a choice.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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All of this, of course, is disproven by the excess death data, which you have worked very hard to ignore. Hospitals reporting COVID deaths has nothing to do with this.



I'm interested to see if this data goes significantly lower than average later this year. Meaning a new disease quickly killed a lot of people who would have died more slowly.
 

diehard

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Imagine if the US media fear mongered sugar consumption the way they fear monger CoVid. diabetes, heart disease, even a lot of evidence of alzheimers and brain damage. Way more deaths per year than CoVid. And every year. yet nothing.
Yep and you misssed the big C. Cancer. The American Sugar Foundation bought off Harvard Medical School on sugar.
 

diehard

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The same people screaming to open the economy right now would be on the streets screaming about taking away the freedom to eat sugar and die. This country is obsessed with being worse off than the rest of the developed world in the name of freedom.
Was there a point that we should have anti-sugar laws or we shoud have accurate sugar education?
 

justthefacts

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Yep and you misssed the big C. Cancer. The American Sugar Foundation bought off Harvard Medical School on sugar.
Just to be clear, that happened in 1967. Harvard has been plenty clear on the subject since then. It's a great example, though, why research into health questions needs to be funded by the public, rather than private groups.






 

diehard

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LOL!
Just to be clear, that happened in 1967. Harvard has been plenty clear on the subject since then. It's a great example, though, why research into health questions needs to be funded by the public, rather than private groups.





 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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You've kind of shifted the discussion from "will people come back" to "will it be enough" and even still you've got it wrong. For restaurants you definitely do need most of your customers to come back. There are a lot of fixed costs involved in simply opening for a night and restaurant margins are often quite thin. There are very few restaurants that can operate profitably at 50% of their previous traffic, and no restaurant can survive for long at 25%.










Your last sentence is a complete non-sequitir as the entire discussion is whether people will stay home of their own free will when they have a choice.
Who is talking about 25 or 50% capacity? I'm talking about the results of the poll. I"m saying you have no idea if the 25% or whatever that responded that they would be comfortable going to a restaurant constitute 25, 50, or even 75% of a given restaurant's business. Not everyone goes to restaurants regularly, not even close.

And I wholeheartedly disagree with your last statement; it's absolutely relevant to the discussion whether or not a business is even allowed to pursue that opportunity, i.e. that the choice is theirs and not the governor or the government.

Lastly, your final article cited D.C. area businesses; again, kind of what we are all arguing about here in the first place; businesses, restaurants in this case, should be evaluated individually and differently all over the country. Just because a guy that owns businesses on the east coast says one thing, the same circumstances don't apply to joints in Salt Lake City or Nashville.
 

bga1

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Um no, hospitals would make way more money if this all just went away.
Yes, but in the meantime they don't have that choice and they do make more money if the patient is labeled Covid than if that same patient is not. You missed the point.
 

Section2

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The same people screaming to open the economy right now would be on the streets screaming about taking away the freedom to eat sugar and die. This country is obsessed with being worse off than the rest of the developed world in the name of freedom.
Government control does not increase health, happiness or prosperity. Liberty does. We have the worst of both worlds. Freedom without responsibility.
 

Section2

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Who is talking about 25 or 50% capacity? I'm talking about the results of the poll. I"m saying you have no idea if the 25% or whatever that responded that they would be comfortable going to a restaurant constitute 25, 50, or even 75% of a given restaurant's business. Not everyone goes to restaurants regularly, not even close.

And I wholeheartedly disagree with your last statement; it's absolutely relevant to the discussion whether or not a business is even allowed to pursue that opportunity, i.e. that the choice is theirs and not the governor or the government.

Lastly, your final article cited D.C. area businesses; again, kind of what we are all arguing about here in the first place; businesses, restaurants in this case, should be evaluated individually and differently all over the country. Just because a guy that owns businesses on the east coast says one thing, the same circumstances don't apply to joints in Salt Lake City or Nashville.
Nothing enraged me more than people who support the lockdown presenting these stats and polls. It’s just meant to give Dem politicians cover. The shutdown isn’t really affecting business. Just keeping people safe. With no shutdown, business would be in the same spot.
it’s an argument that people are smart enough to make their own choices. Which of course is unacceptable to the left and JTF. Fine. Everyone except you is an idiot. Shut everything down. You own the looming disaster.
 

howeda7

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Yes, but in the meantime they don't have that choice and they do make more money if the patient is labeled Covid than if that same patient is not. You missed the point.
Do you believe hospitals are committing fraud en mass to pad their repayments?
 

Bad Gopher

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It's clear the throttle has to come forward some. The question is whether there's enough hospital beds, medical equipment, protective equipment, and testing to pull it off intelligently without unnecessary loss of life. Obviously the president has been flapping his gums, drowning the CDC in the bathtub, hijacking medical equipment en route to their destinations, and generally putting Kushner in charge of things, so the answer is no. This, however, is something the media has been woefully inadequate in reporting.

My wife and I have one N95 mask between us, and our sister in law is sewing some cloth ones for us. Lame as that is, we're still way better off than most. Getting masks to citizens should be a national mobilization effort in a national emergency like this. I've said it before: putting Clinton aside, any of the other Republicans in the 2016 presidential field would have been knocking this out of the park right now. Trump has not just fucked this up, he's zombie-ized his entire party into submission and inaction.
 

kellyleeks

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Probably will turn out to be hundreds of thousands depending on timing and specifics.

I don't claim that this isn't a difficult calculus and a difficult decision. Like I posted in another thread, we could eliminate 40,000 deaths a year by banning auto travel, but we instead continue to work to try and make it safer.

I think the current timing of some states' and localities' loosening things up as the proliferation of cases and deaths are just peaking (!) is objectively strange timing to say the least. It's obviously a panic move to appease an extremely vocal minority and to try and save some small businesses before they go under. The difficult calculus is, how many businesses will actually be saved by these moves, and is it worth the cost of 5 or 6 figures of lives lost?

I expect a lot of hysterical replies to this post, but you have to be able to consider these things coolly and rationally.
Assuming that the majority wants the economy closed then When their jobs are gone and theOr pension funds decimated, I’m sure they won’t be looking for government handouts, rather they’ll accept the choice they made and live in poverty without complaint.
 

Bad Gopher

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Assuming that the majority wants the economy closed then When their jobs are gone and theOr pension funds decimated, I’m sure they won’t be looking for government handouts, rather they’ll accept the choice they made and live in poverty without complaint.
I would guess the majority agrees with my post above: we can't keep living like this, so let's ease forward, but let's be as safe as practical about it. We're the richest damn country on Earth, so why can't we be well prepared and equipped?
 

kellyleeks

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I would guess the majority agrees with my post above: we can't keep living like this, so let's ease forward, but let's be as safe as practical about it. We're the richest damn country on Earth, so why can't we be well prepared and equipped?
If you’re under 70 and not obese your chance of death is extremely low. Protect the old and immunocompromised (not the obese though) and start to open up.
 

diehard

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If you’re under 70 and not obese your chance of death is extremely low. Protect the old and immunocompromised (not the obese though) and start to open up.
Sorry. It got messed up while editng. It was your links. I opened them. Good to see somethng pseudo accurate from Harvard Medical. The information in the links isn't all good either. Many promote leaky gut syndrome for starters. You have to find a functional nutritionist. MDs and dieticians aren't bad people. They have bad educations. Big Pharma has to be defeated. It is killing you. It was killing me.

EDIT: Sorry Kelly. Too much to do and got careless. This was a response to WTF. Your post is spot on.
 

diehard

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It's clear the throttle has to come forward some. The question is whether there's enough hospital beds, medical equipment, protective equipment, and testing to pull it off intelligently without unnecessary loss of life. Obviously the president has been flapping his gums, drowning the CDC in the bathtub, hijacking medical equipment en route to their destinations, and generally putting Kushner in charge of things, so the answer is no. This, however, is something the media has been woefully inadequate in reporting.

My wife and I have one N95 mask between us, and our sister in law is sewing some cloth ones for us. Lame as that is, we're still way better off than most. Getting masks to citizens should be a national mobilization effort in a national emergency like this. I've said it before: putting Clinton aside, any of the other Republicans in the 2016 presidential field would have been knocking this out of the park right now. Trump has not just fucked this up, he's zombie-ized his entire party into submission and inaction.
Masks for the healthy with strong immune systems is a detriment to continued good health.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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It's clear the throttle has to come forward some. The question is whether there's enough hospital beds, medical equipment, protective equipment, and testing to pull it off intelligently without unnecessary loss of life. Obviously the president has been flapping his gums, drowning the CDC in the bathtub, hijacking medical equipment en route to their destinations, and generally putting Kushner in charge of things, so the answer is no. This, however, is something the media has been woefully inadequate in reporting.

My wife and I have one N95 mask between us, and our sister in law is sewing some cloth ones for us. Lame as that is, we're still way better off than most. Getting masks to citizens should be a national mobilization effort in a national emergency like this. I've said it before: putting Clinton aside, any of the other Republicans in the 2016 presidential field would have been knocking this out of the park right now. Trump has not just fucked this up, he's zombie-ized his entire party into submission and inaction.
There literally are not words to respond to an off-the-wall post like this. I don't know how you ever leave your house most days. This is downright disturbing that anyone could think like this.
 

JimmyJamesMD

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There literally are not words to respond to an off-the-wall post like this. I don't know how you ever leave your house most days. This is downright disturbing that anyone could think like this.
he's scared. Maybe some empathy is in order
 
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