The new Corona virus, should we worry?

Pompous Elitist

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These guys say it much better than me. Published today and worth a read to flesh out the argument. I realize this is a contentious issue, and both sides have merit.


COVID-19 vaccines in children​

Stefan Baral¹, Wesley Pegden², Vinay Prasad³​



¹Associate Professor, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of public health

²Associate Professor, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University

³Associate Professor, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco.

The rapid development of highly effective COVID-19 vaccines is a triumph of science and, with equitable implementation strategies, represents humanity’s path out of the COVID-19 pandemic. To expedite deployment in the United States, three COVID-19 vaccines were provided Emergency Use Authorization while concurrently undertaking the traditional review process. Pfizer has requested the FDA amend the existing EUA for its vaccine to allow eligibility for children aged 12 to 15, and further clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccines, including for younger children, are underway. Unlike for adults, however, the likelihood of severe outcomes or death associated with COVID-19 infection is very low for children, undermining the appropriateness of an EUA for child COVID-19 vaccines.

Emergency Use Authorization in the US requires that an intervention address a serious or life-threatening condition, and for known and potential benefits of the intervention to be balanced against the known and potential harms. The EUA for COVID-19 vaccines were implemented at the height of the second wave in the US, enabling 100 million American adults, who would otherwise be at significant risk of severe outcomes or death from COVID-19 infection, to be vaccinated on an accelerated time frame. Significant adverse events to vaccines are sometimes detected during wider distribution; for example, such events were investigated for the Johnson and Johnson COVID-19 vaccine. But Phase 3 trials of COVID-19 vaccines in adults demonstrated reductions in both infections and severe disease, and even if one reasoned conservatively from data on infections alone, these trials showed a large benefit for adult populations that convincingly offset the potential for harms from any side effects rare enough to be missed in Phase 3 trials. Collectively, COVID-19 vaccination in adults met EUA criteria given the positive balance of risks and benefits at the individual level.

Trials for COVID-19 vaccines are also underway for children as young as 6 months. These trials are not powered to measure decreases in severe COVID-19 infections, due to their rarity. Instead, these trials are examining safety, the immune response, and, as a secondary outcome, the impact on the incidence of COVID-19 infections. As for adults, these trials are not designed to assess rare or delayed adverse events. Unlike for adults, the rarity of severe COVID-19 outcomes for children means that trials cannot demonstrate that the balance of the benefits of vaccination against the potential adverse effects are favorable to the children themselves. In short, given the rarity of severe clinical courses and limited clarity of risks, the criteria for Emergency Use Authorization do not appear to be met for children.

Emergency Use Authorizations for child vaccinations can make sense for children for whom the benefits are greatest, and thus for whom it is clearest that the benefits outweigh any unknown harms. In the near-term, EUA’s should be considered for children at genuinely high risk of serious complications from infection. It is also worth considering whether emergency use could be authorized for children whom especially concerned caregivers are sheltering from school or social interactions. The small risk posed to children by COVID-19 does not merit restrictions on any normal child activities in a context where adults are protected by vaccines, but individual children who find their lives curtailed in this way may obtain significant benefits from vaccination.

One might hope to achieve population-level benefits with broader child vaccination, even while the relative benefits and risks for children themselves remain unclear. But this is inconsistent with the conditions for Emergency Use Authorization. Fortunately, COVID-19 vaccines have shown very high effectiveness across the adult population, and future trajectories of hospitalizations and deaths will largely be determined by vaccination rates in adults.

 

Spoofin

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When is a list of places you have been enough for pie graphs, policy, mandates and when does it not ‘necessarily mean’ anything? Maybe there wasn’t an internal email asking them to link sports venues to COVID cases 🤷‍♂️
Current MDH position...
“It doesn’t necessarily mean that was where they acquired the illness, but just that they reported that as a venue they attended,” Ehresmann said.
 

short ornery norwegian

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MN Covid-19 Update - Tuesday, May 4

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive cases 541,628 +832. Including probable cases 581,335.

Positive test rate 7.1%.

Health-Care workers with positive cases 41,623 +79.

Cases no longer needing isolation 560,733 +1,697.

Active cases 13,428 -713.

Deaths 6,779 +10. Including probable deaths 7,174.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 4,131 +1. Including probable cases 4,371.

Patients currently Hospitalized 575 -1. Cumulative 30,574 +204.

Patients currently In ICU 149 -6. Cumulative 6,219 +36.

Total PCR tests processed 8,623,353 +11,652. Including antigen testing 9,338,983.

Number of people tested 4,064,210 +2,954.

 

Pompous Elitist

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When is a list of places you have been enough for pie graphs, policy, mandates and when does it not ‘necessarily mean’ anything? Maybe there wasn’t an internal email asking them to link sports venues to COVID cases 🤷‍♂️
Current MDH position...
“It doesn’t necessarily mean that was where they acquired the illness, but just that they reported that as a venue they attended,” Ehresmann said.

Health departments are still spending money on contact tracing?
 

Section2

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at the same time, an elementary student in Marshall, MN died of covid this week. according to the local school district, this was a healthy child with no pre-existing conditions.

that's the thing about covid. it doesn't seem to obey the rules.

some people catch it, and it's no worse than a cold. other people catch it and die.

I really think that is part of the issue with all the arguments over statistics and case counts.

this virus is really hard to predict. it just keeps throwing curves at all the experts, and they are swinging and missing like Pedro Cerrano.
That’s true. But the lockdowners are ignoring the trade offs. Actually they are denying they exist. Yes, maybe if we make masks mandatory for all toddlers, 1-2 less might die. What are the other effects? Is it worth the trade off? We could create a society where a lot fewer people died. But it wouldn’t be a society worth living in.
 

Section2

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True, yet my point still stands. We kind of need people to actually have immunity to reach herd immunity; refusal to dose up will at the very least slow us from getting there, and perhaps put us at risk with other strains popping up.

Additionally, we kind of need the entire world to reach herd immunity; or the cycle could just restart (in the absence of any necessary booster dosing).
If you want to get to herd immunity, open everything up with no restrictions.
 

Spoofin

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Health departments are still spending money on contact tracing?
Well, they should be if what I was told on here was accurate. I was assured it was easy to determine where people catch COVID by using it and that MDH was right to use it to set policy. Then the emails. Now even MDH says why bother - it “doesn’t necessarily mean” anything 🤷‍♂️
 

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The hospitals know exactly how to treat COVID patients today. Unless you have under-lying health conditions, the risk of death is extremely low.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Well, they should be if what I was told on here was accurate. I was assured it was easy to determine where people catch COVID by using it and that MDH was right to use it to set policy. Then the emails. Now even MDH says why bother - it “doesn’t necessarily mean” anything 🤷‍♂️

It’s been my impression public health has no idea where the vast majority of transmission is occurring, or if they do they’ve squashed public reports of said transmission chains for reasons that can be guessed at. You and I know, but they didn’t ask us.
 

Pompous Elitist

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The DC mayor, an obvious fan of Footloose, bans dancing and standing at weddings. Science.

Backyard and otherwise “illegal“ weddings have been occurring out here for many, many months. Private chef dinners, large house parties etc. and nobody bats an eye. The county enforcement fingermen generally focustheir efforts on commercial bars, gyms, restaurants flaunting the rules, assuredly to keep a paycheck but some delighted in writing $10,000 fines for outdoor diners....It’s Prohibition all over again.

The irony of mayor of DC trying to enforce rule of law is almost too much to bear. These people are flat out nuts.
 
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Spoofin

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P1 has been circulating in the US for months yet no papers on reinfection clusters have emerged. How does Feigl-Ding explain this? The math is clear.
This is a really important point and a prime example of how the media is playing this. It is a virus and therefore it will continue to create variants - as it has from the start. Now tho - publish an article with the word “variant”and people are instantly fearful. Throw in the word “India” with it and you get Broke posting it on GH.
 

cncmin

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I agree it would be nice if every adult volunteered but that isn’t going to happen, it’s just barking at the moon. Coercion and mandates could backfire in a big way.

I agree with your second point, which is why the best bang for the buck is vaccinating the the at-risk in the rest of the world. We don’t have to vaccinate every American to reach a relatively low level of endemic infection.
Knocking down Covid to a very low rate of transmission might suffice. We'll lose people unnecessarily, but not anywhere near numbers we saw in 2020; and more often than not, the ones we lose will be lost of their own choice.
 

Section2

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FIFY. Your path of least resistance is also the path of most destruction.
That’s definitely debatable. Florida is doing fine opened up. Regardless, it might be the path with the most destruction but it’s the path with the fewest innocent victims.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Knocking down Covid to a very low rate of transmission might suffice. We'll lose people unnecessarily, but not anywhere near numbers we saw in 2020; and more often than not, the ones we lose will be lost of their own choice.

Israel, UK have achieved very low case rates without 80-90% vaccination. The US with high natural infection levels will presumedly follow similar glide path but given our less healthy population and particularly in some of the vaccine hesitant demographics may have more issues with hospitalizations and death.

Have you seen any reports on widespread reinfection? I haven’t. Good news.
 

short ornery norwegian

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MN Covid-19 Update - Wednesday, May 5

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive cases 542,636 +1,024. Including probable cases 582,576.

Positive test rate 5.2%.

Health-Care workers with positive cases 41,675 +52.

Cases no longer needing isolation 562,376 +1,643.

Active Cases 13,009 -419.

Deaths 6,796 +17. Including probable deaths 7,191.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 4,134 +3. Including probable cases 4,374.

Patients currently Hospitalized 580 +5. Cumulative 30,691 +117.

Patients currently In ICU 149(no change). Cumulative 6,246 +27.

Total PCR tests processed 8,642,750 +19,589. Including antigen testing 9,364,629.

Number of people tested 4,073,809 +9,599.

 

STPGopher

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There will always be an excuse. They won’t give up their emergency powers without a fight. Fear porn 24/7.
Also, it’s racist to note the India variant. It’s covid-19/657.769-09798-12
Not part of this conversation, but fear porn has been spewed be some rightwing groups for decades.


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STPGopher

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Israel, UK have achieved very low case rates without 80-90% vaccination. The US with high natural infection levels will presumedly follow similar glide path but given our less healthy population and particularly in some of the vaccine hesitant demographics may have more issues with hospitalizations and death.

Have you seen any reports on widespread reinfection? I haven’t. Good news.
MPR(?) was discussing this. If I remember to, I will post the podcast if/ when it is available.
 

cncmin

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That’s definitely debatable. Florida is doing fine opened up. Regardless, it might be the path with the most destruction but it’s the path with the fewest innocent victims.
You call "opened up" what really isn't "opened up". No one is closed, no one is open. No one has been closed, no one has been open.
 

Spoofin

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I see "Joe Biden's coming for your guns" ads regularly.
You do? Interesting. Where? I’ve literally never seen one.
I guess, since you spend so much time watching Q and OANN I can’t say I am surprised. Maybe you should stop spending so much time watching that sh!t. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️
 

Spoofin

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You call "opened up" what really isn't "opened up". No one is closed, no one is open. No one has been closed, no one has been open.
Sure thing. Florida was “restricted”, Wisconsin had similar “behavioral patterns”, and nobody was “really closed”. Wow - and your narrative was never wrong.
 
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