The new Corona virus, should we worry?

Spoofin

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2013
Messages
19,584
Reaction score
4,306
Points
113
From cherry-picker U? 😉

What’s the reason for MN having much lower death rates than SD, ND, and IA if not for human behavior? Covid likes MN more than those states so it decided to be less deadly?

You’ve even said hospitalizations and deaths are the best things to look at, yet cases keeps being used to compare states. Gee I wonder why.
TBF, you shouldn't call someone a cherry-picker and then suggest we compare MN to SD, ND, IA while leaving WI off the list. I do agree with you that case counts should be left out of the discussion all together.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,850
Reaction score
1,989
Points
113
From cherry-picker U? 😉

What’s the reason for MN having much lower death rates than SD, ND, and IA if not for human behavior? Covid likes MN more than those states so it decided to be less deadly?

You’ve even said hospitalizations and deaths are the best things to look at, yet cases keeps being used to compare states. Gee I wonder why.

Wisconsin complicates the picture with their hodgepodge of shutdowns and mandates versus MN and Iowa/Dakotas. Personally I suspect the culture of the populations might have something to do with (relatively small) differences in outcomes so far - peer pressure to unmask at family gatherings, church, and so on. Perhaps iatrogenic spread within Sanford facilities or other lackadaisical protocols.
 

GophersInIowa

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
27,510
Reaction score
3,265
Points
113
TBF, you shouldn't call someone a cherry-picker and then suggest we compare MN to SD, ND, IA while leaving WI off the list. I do agree with you that case counts should be left out of the discussion all together.
Because the human behavior in MN and WI has been very similar, hence why the hospitalization and death numbers are similar. I’m not cherry picking anything. Human behavior isn’t the only factor but it’s definitely a large factor in the difference in numbers.
 

Spoofin

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2013
Messages
19,584
Reaction score
4,306
Points
113
Because the human behavior in MN and WI has been very similar, hence why the hospitalization and death numbers are similar. I’m not cherry picking anything. Human behavior isn’t the only factor but it’s definitely a large factor in the difference in numbers.
So we are throwing WI (along with FL) into the higher restrictions list with MN now?
 

GopherWeatherGuy

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 24, 2013
Messages
9,008
Reaction score
2,652
Points
113
Because the human behavior in MN and WI has been very similar, hence why the hospitalization and death numbers are similar. I’m not cherry picking anything. Human behavior isn’t the only factor but it’s definitely a large factor in the difference in numbers.

Human behavior has been similar across the board, it has made very little difference.

This disease is most highly correlated with seasonality, which is exactly what that graph showed. You're the one constantly cherry picking by ignoring simple data and facts.

Cases, hospitalizations, and death are all highly correlated too, something which you used to argue for.
 

Go4Broke

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 5, 2010
Messages
5,030
Reaction score
1,588
Points
113
Because the human behavior in MN and WI has been very similar, hence why the hospitalization and death numbers are similar. I’m not cherry picking anything. Human behavior isn’t the only factor but it’s definitely a large factor in the difference in numbers.

You are correct (as usual).



 
Last edited:

GophersInIowa

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
27,510
Reaction score
3,265
Points
113
So we are throwing WI (along with FL) into the higher restrictions list with MN now?
We’re talking about human behavior. Wearing masks, restrictions, people working from home, etc. Too many people concentrating on state level restrictions and mandates instead of what people are actually doing (and ignoring local mandates).
 

GophersInIowa

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
27,510
Reaction score
3,265
Points
113
Human behavior has been similar across the board, it has made very little difference.

This disease is most highly correlated with seasonality, which is exactly what that graph showed. You're the one constantly cherry picking by ignoring simple data and facts.

Cases, hospitalizations, and death are all highly correlated too, something which you used to argue for.
It’s laughable to say behavior has been similar across the board. You’ve literally talked about going to SD and seeing how different it’s been. I’ll ask again, if behavior has had little affect, why the vast differences in results in hospitalizations and deaths?

The virus goes in waves or whatever you want to call it. So almost impossible to stop it. But human behavior can reduce how bad it gets.

Yep, as cases increase, usually increases in hospitalizations and deaths follow. I’m not arguing that. This is all about using cases to compare different states when that is reliant on testing. Minnesota tests more which just means they’re capturing more of the infections than many other states. Looking at case trends within a state is helpful to predict increases in hospitalizations and deaths.
 

GophersInIowa

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
27,510
Reaction score
3,265
Points
113
Wisconsin complicates the picture with their hodgepodge of shutdowns and mandates versus MN and Iowa/Dakotas. Personally I suspect the culture of the populations might have something to do with (relatively small) differences in outcomes so far - peer pressure to unmask at family gatherings, church, and so on. Perhaps iatrogenic spread within Sanford facilities or other lackadaisical protocols.
Wisconsin isn’t that much different than MN. Larger populated areas have had mandates, high compliance. Rural areas looser, less masks, etc.
 

Spoofin

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2013
Messages
19,584
Reaction score
4,306
Points
113
We’re talking about human behavior. Wearing masks, restrictions, people working from home, etc. Too many people concentrating on state level restrictions and mandates instead of what people are actually doing (and ignoring local mandates).
Interesting. Maybe you can link me to the data that shows “human behavior” was similar between MN & WI and different than IA, SD, and ND. I’d love to concentrate on that, but to be honest it sounds like a convenient fabrication to make WI’s #s align with your beliefs. I spent some time in WI during lockdowns and it wasn’t anything like MN. We all know their restrictions weren’t so what makes you think their “human behavior” was? I thought I heard it all when FL got moved into the “restricted states” list on here, but saying Wisconsin’s “human behavior” was similar to restricted States is a new one.
 

GophersInIowa

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
27,510
Reaction score
3,265
Points
113
Interesting. Maybe you can link me to the data that shows “human behavior” was similar between MN & WI and different than IA, SD, and ND. I’d love to concentrate on that, but to be honest it sounds like a convenient fabrication to make WI’s #s align with your beliefs. I spent some time in WI during lockdowns and it wasn’t anything like MN. We all know their restrictions weren’t so what makes you think their “human behavior” was? I thought I heard it all when FL got moved into the “restricted states” list on here, but saying Wisconsin’s “human behavior” was similar to restricted States is a new one.
I live in Wisconsin. Again, people are just looking at state mandates. That doesn’t always tell the whole story. SD, WI and FL for example have had very little or no statewide mandates/restrictions through most of this. That doesn’t mean the human behavior within those states are the same. Even without statewide restrictions/mandates, a large portion of the population in WI have been under local restrictions. Mask usage and mobility reports have shown WI to be pretty similar to MN overall.

I’ll ask you then: if the behaviors of the Wisconsin population is more similar to SD, ND and IA, why have they seen far fewer deaths?
 

Spoofin

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2013
Messages
19,584
Reaction score
4,306
Points
113
I live in Wisconsin. Again, people are just looking at state mandates. That doesn’t always tell the whole story. SD, WI and FL for example have had very little or no statewide mandates/restrictions through most of this. That doesn’t mean the human behavior within those states are the same. Even without statewide restrictions/mandates, a large portion of the population in WI have been under local restrictions. Mask usage and mobility reports have shown WI to be pretty similar to MN overall.

I’ll ask you then: if the behaviors of the Wisconsin population is more similar to SD, ND and IA, why have they seen far fewer deaths?
I don’t know why - but you don’t either. It is a virus that has been here over a year and is unpredictable. So many variables and you are trying to simplify it. Certainly the “human behavior” of CA and IL aren’t worse than WI - so why are their results worse?

My issue with your take is you have no data proving WI’s “human behavior” is like MNs - instead you are looking at the results in WI and assuming what the input must be based on your beliefs. You said yourself, human behavior is only part of it.
 

GophersInIowa

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
27,510
Reaction score
3,265
Points
113
I don’t know why - but you don’t either. It is a virus that has been here over a year and is unpredictable. So many variables and you are trying to simplify it. Certainly the “human behavior” of CA and IL aren’t worse than WI - so why are their results worse?

My issue with your take is you have no data proving WI’s “human behavior” is like MNs - instead you are looking at the results in WI and assuming what the input must be based on your beliefs. You said yourself, human behavior is only part of it.
Like I said, mask wearing and mobility reports have shown WI to be pretty close to MN overall. Saying human behavior is part of it is exactly my point. GWG is trying to say it has little to no impact. There are multiple factors. Human behavior is the one we can control.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,850
Reaction score
1,989
Points
113
This seems like oversimplification. The risk of hospitalization and death from Covid-19 is much higher in younger people with risk factors, including of course, obesity. The ~10:1 relative risk profile of J&J vs Covid-19 deteriorates substantially in an individual with no risk factors (vs an obese, diabetic, immunosuppressed 16-49 yo). Sure, on paper it may still make sense but why risk the inevitable backlash over rare poor outcomes.

Frankly shocked the FDA is proceeding with business as usual instead of limited restriction - except a blurb on an information sheet -when an apparently safer alternative exists and is widely available in the US. J & J influence peddling?


 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,850
Reaction score
1,989
Points
113
Like I said, mask wearing and mobility reports have shown WI to be pretty close to MN overall. Saying human behavior is part of it is exactly my point. GWG is trying to say it has little to no impact. There are multiple factors. Human behavior is the one we can control.

The difference in deaths per million between Washington and Minnesota is similar to the difference between Minnesota and the Dakotas. Given similar population demographics, access to high level healthcare I can’t explain that other than the difference in weather and perhaps tighter protocols around LTCFs. The prevalence of obesity is roughly 5% higher in the Dakota and Iowa versus MN - factor?

Ultimately some of this may come down to luck, some to culture,s ome to increased masking, demographics, prevalence of population risk factors, vaccination rates and targeting. Too many to list?
 

GopherWeatherGuy

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 24, 2013
Messages
9,008
Reaction score
2,652
Points
113
Like I said, mask wearing and mobility reports have shown WI to be pretty close to MN overall. Saying human behavior is part of it is exactly my point. GWG is trying to say it has little to no impact. There are multiple factors. Human behavior is the one we can control.

What I'm saying is backed by data. What you're saying is not.

Besides that, I live in Minnesota and spent a ton of time in WI and SD over the last year. I have friends and family in both states. SD and WI have been very similar with restrictions since last summer, and have been far less restricted than MN for nearly a year now.
 

justthefacts

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 20, 2010
Messages
13,788
Reaction score
4,387
Points
113
Interesting. Maybe you can link me to the data that shows “human behavior” was similar between MN & WI and different than IA, SD, and ND. I’d love to concentrate on that, but to be honest it sounds like a convenient fabrication to make WI’s #s align with your beliefs. I spent some time in WI during lockdowns and it wasn’t anything like MN. We all know their restrictions weren’t so what makes you think their “human behavior” was? I thought I heard it all when FL got moved into the “restricted states” list on here, but saying Wisconsin’s “human behavior” was similar to restricted States is a new one.
GvZIPxn.png


 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,850
Reaction score
1,989
Points
113

On cursory reading they don’t give a simple scale for their aggregate mobility reduction. Their effect sizes seem ludicrous given the naked data. I agree with the idea people are going to follow or not follow political decisions based on personal attitudes and their immediate cultural influences.

You can view the unmodified mobility data from Apple at the link below. If you see a significant difference b/t Iowa, Wisconsin, the Dakotas I guess I need to get bifocals. Depending on source and method mobility data, btw, is all over the map. Apple, Google, unacast, etc etc don’t seem to have consistency. Miles traveled, direction searches, etc etc.

 
Top Bottom