The new Corona virus, should we worry?

Pompous Elitist

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The MN modeling team may have migrated north. I’ve been seeing some interesting projections recently.

From a recent presentation


247008EA-EFBB-4B90-99EA-13722E49980B.jpegB3741AA1-EDAF-4D42-9AE9-B375DA417A9C.jpeg
 

short ornery norwegian

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There will be no covid-19 update today from the MN State Department of Health because apparently today is a holiday of some kind.

Covid numbers will be reported again on Monday. Not quite sure how the data will be reported - I'm guessing they will lump two day's numbers together.

On a personal note, I did not go home for Easter, so I treated myself to a frozen Key Lime pie that I am trying not to eat in one sitting.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Is there accountability for these decisions based on nothing more substantial than educated conjecture? What is the liability?



Compounding the looming crisis are those who have put off medical attention over fears of catching the virus, and those who have faced delays with routine screenings and biopsies as well. Without a solution to expand capacity, this confluence of circumstances could create a deluge of cases, doctors warn.

“I think the major [issue] is what's called diagnostic delay. So it’s delays between when someone has the first symptoms suggesting cancer and when they are diagnosed, or from the time that they would have normally been screened to the time they were diagnosed,” said Dr. Tim Hanna, an oncologist with Queen’s University’s School of Medicine.

“I’m worried that we’re missing our chance to catch cancer early, and to treat it early when really, that’s the best chance to cure the disease … If they feel unsafe to visit a practitioner or doctor in person, they should pick up the phone to start. We need to catch up on cancer screening.”

He and other doctors are anecdotally seeing more cases of advanced cancer, and more cases that require more complex management.
 

Pompous Elitist

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There will be a lot to unpack and argue about when this is all over. Was the increased death rate vs, say, Norway acceptable to the Swedish public? Opinion polls say yes so far.

Sweden saw lower death spike than much of Europe



Sweden, meanwhile, has mostly relied on voluntary measures focused on social distancing, good hygiene and targeted rules that have kept schools, restaurants and shops largely open - an approach that has sharply polarised Swedes but spared the economy from much of the hit suffered elsewhere in Europe.

Preliminary data from EU statistics agency Eurostat compiled by Reuters showed Sweden had 7.7% more deaths in 2020 than its average for the preceding four years. Countries that opted for several periods of strict lockdowns, such as Spain and Belgium, had so-called excess mortality of 18.1% and 16.2% respectively.

Twenty-one of the 30 countries with available statistics had higher excess mortality than Sweden. However, Sweden did much worse than its Nordic neighbours, with Denmark registering just 1.5% excess mortality and Finland 1.0%. Norway had no excess mortality at all in 2020.
 

Pompous Elitist

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I brought up Sweden because they pretty much did what you’re saying we should have done and failed to protect the vulnerable. They’ve gone away from it because it didn’t work and currently have some pretty strict restrictions in place.

It’s arguable what “strict“ means but they have only lowered number of people in groups in restaurants, decreased store occupancy, and reduced mass gatherings, high school+ age educational institutions. AFAIK lower age schools have been open throughout and most businesses have not been completely shut.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Hospitalizations and ICU admissions still going up.
Case numbers going up.

MN Covid-19 Update - Friday, April 2

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive Cases 493,618 +2,073. Including probable cases 524,203.

Positive test rate 5.0%.

Health-Care workers with positive cases 39,354 +59.

Cases no longer needing isolation 501,188 +837.

Active Cases 16,151 +1,695.

Deaths 6,486 +3. Including probable deaths 6,864.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 4,047 +2. Including probable cases 4,282).

Patients currently Hospitalized 439 +4. Cumulative 27,476 +72.

Patients currently In ICU 112 +7. Cumulative 5,651 +16.

Total PCR tests processed 7,754,272 +41,246. Including antigen tests 8,303,586.


MPR is reporting the 70+ yo cohort is experiencing a substantially lower infection rate/positivity rate than younger age groups versus the earlier surges. This suggests vaccine efficacy to me 👍.

Where will this surge lead? The $64B question.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Hmmm...MPR article with data suggesting 0-19 age group infection rate lagging adults as before, with exception of the vaccinated 60+ yo age groups which one would expect. The data so far in B117 and schools open-MN does not support Osterholm’s hypothesis (and his sources) but time will tell over next few weeks.

I hear officials are also asking parents to have their children routinely tested q 2 weeks which will possibly distort the numbers

 

Pompous Elitist

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Also agree with this in spirit.

HOWEVER, we are rapidly approaching a date such that: every single adult American in the country could have had a vaccine, if they wanted it.

My sympathy for any person who denies their opportunity to get a vaccine, and then gets infected with covid, will start fading exponentially fast after we reach that threshold date .......

How do you feel about (most people afflicted with) obesity? Smokers?
 

cncmin

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Our friendly and sometimes overly smug candian friends have made their situation more difficult with an inexplicable near total shutdown of surgeries in 2020-2021 in preparation for a COVID-19 wave that never came. Ontario alone has a nearly 250k surgery backlog, including 36k cancer-related. This is a incredible number for a lightly populated province. Is this a cautionary tale on what happens when you give free reign to epidemiology modelers and the Feigl-Dings of the world. This will only get worse as they face their new spring surge in a vulnerable population with a low level of past infection and low level of vaccination.


The result? Over 36,000 Ontario cancer patients had their surgeries delayed last spring.

“That's a staggering number there and that's in Ontario alone in a very short period of time,” said Dr. Antoine Eskander, a surgical oncologist at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Toronto.

“It's almost impossible to recover from this type of a backlog ... Even if we were to operate on Saturdays and Sundays and into the evenings every day, which we don't have the capacity for, we could not do that even if we wanted to.”

Eskander says surgeries have only increased by small increments -- about 6 per cent per week. To increase surgical capacity, it would require not just hospital capacity, but nursing and physician capacity as well. And even then, it would be hard to recover, he says.

“So we're stuck in a situation now where I think it's becoming clear we're going to have to make decisions about surgery and about prioritization of certain types of procedures … And I'm worried that there will be some patients who won't get surgery for a very long time.”


Yes, this is one of the biggest problems with potential over-response to Covid, that of pushing back other medical needs, some of which just get worse from lack of treatment.
 

howeda7

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The local Walmart is making in store announcements that anyone over 16 can just walk up and get the vaccine. Hopefully the holdouts know enough people who have gotten it to get over their paranoia.
 

MplsGopher

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How do you feel about (most people afflicted with) obesity? Smokers?
How do I feel about people who chose not to get the vaccine for obesity or smoking?

When you decide to be genuine and clear about the point you want to make, then you can expect genuine responses.
 

justthefacts

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Wrong. It’s important that the cure is not worse than the disease. Dozens of times progs have pushed this “greed” angle. Dozens of times we’ve had to correct you that businesses destroyed, kids out of school and trapped in abusive families, fear, drug abuse, loneliness, suicide, elderly isolation, and just plain everyone stopping their lives and not celebrating, mourning, etc all has a HUGE cost.
Also cons: BMI is bogus. I had a BMI turn up overweight because their waist measurement was 6 inches bigger than the waist I wear in pants. But yes, obesity is an epidemic. It’s controllable. And it’s a major risk factor for all sorts of chronic disease including covid. Shutting down the country with all the above costs to protect people with a controllable health condition is just wrong.
 

Section2

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here are some real stats:
60k preventable cancer deaths in the UK
2.5 million people missed cancer screenings or treatment
UN says 42 - 66 million children risk falling into extreme poverty.
up to 75k deaths of despair according to cbs news
UNICEF warns of 1.2 million child deaths
130 million people at risk of starvation according to Oxfords Sunetra Gupta
Suicide ideation massively on the rise in the US, from usually 6-11% contemplating suicide in the past 12 months, to 25.5% considering it in the past 30 days for 18-25 year olds
As a direct result of lockdowns, NYT reports 1.4 million excess TB deaths, 500k excess HIV deaths, and 385k malaria deaths worldwide
Here were the stats I posted JTF. See if your straw man fits in.
 

Section2

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Deuce is a pie in the sky dreamer, you sound like me at 15. It's cute, you should go play tag with Greta, two idealistic peas in the pod.

I value liberty to, but I also value holding those with power accountable for their actions. And I am a realist, people are selfish pricks, voluntary cooperation will not make the world a utopia.
We should give the most selfish pricks absolute power over us. That will surely create utopia.
 

MplsGopher

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Clearly they weren't serious.

Or were talked out of it. Either way, win for the good guys.
 

Section2

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Why does the MSM have such a hard on for DeSantis? It’s really bizarre. Must think he has all the positives of Trump without the baggage.
 

Plausible Deniability

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Why does the MSM have such a hard on for DeSantis? It’s really bizarre. Must think he has all the positives of Trump without the baggage.
Oh, come on.... You know the answer to this. Anyone who could remotely be a candidate in 2024, we need to start laying the foundation in the main stream media NOW to tear that person down. And of course he's been arguably the most effective Gov in the country at handling his state's business during the pandemic. Terrible man...
 

Section2

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See for yourself. Edited version first, unedited second.
 

Section2

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Oh, come on.... You know the answer to this. Anyone who could remotely be a candidate in 2024, we need to start laying the foundation in the main stream media NOW to tear that person down. And of course he's been arguably the most effective Gov in the country at handling his state's business during the pandemic. Terrible man...
But man, it is so obvious and transparent. Michigan currently has 7 of the top 10 areas with the highest outbreak. Would any of the board progs know that? Does anyone know that?
 

short ornery norwegian

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Note from MDH:

In observance of the holidays, we did not update the data on this page on Sunday, April 4. Monday's post will be for data analyzed and reported out as of Saturday, April 3. Due to a technical issue on Saturday, April 3 fewer cases than normal were able to be processed. The numbers posted on Monday, April 5 may be lower and cases posted Tuesday, April 6 may be higher as a result.

MN Covid-19 Update- Monday, April 5

Data reported for Saturday, April 3, only. (Sunday data will be reported tomorrow).

Positive Cases 496,533 +1,114. Including probable cases 527,650.

Positive test rate 3.8%.

Health-care workers with positive cases 39,471 +37.

Cases no longer needing isolation 504,712 +1,688.

Active Cases 16,053 -315.

Deaths 6,506 +10. Including probable deaths 6,885.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 4,058 +7. Including probable cases 4,293.

Patients currently Hospitalized 434 -25. Cumulative 27,569 +16.

Patients currently In ICU 102 -9. Cumulative 5,661 +1.

Total PCR tests processed 7,814,214 +29,609. Including antigen testing 8,375,597.

 

short ornery norwegian

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I do have the "beds-in-use" numbers for the weekend. numbers provided by different source.

Saturday
ICU: 111 -1
other: 348 +21
Total: 459 +20

Sunday:
ICU: 102 -9
other: 332 -16
Total: 434 -25

Monday:
ICU: 110 +8
other: 338 +6
Total: 448 +14.
 

howeda7

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But man, it is so obvious and transparent. Michigan currently has 7 of the top 10 areas with the highest outbreak. Would any of the board progs know that? Does anyone know that?
I've seen it reported multiple places. You guys are so desperate to be victims of the media. Golf was so desperate he took offense to Cory Provus not opening his radio show with Happy Easter. That is the pathetic new low, but I believe you can top it!
 

Pompous Elitist

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How do I feel about people who chose not to get the vaccine for obesity or smoking?

When you decide to be genuine and clear about the point you want to make, then you can expect genuine responses.

My question is: do you “really” care about people or are you and others like you veiling personal fears in humanistic wordage? Clear enough?

Before you mention the carb and nicotine addicted aren’t infectious ( this is true) you are free to protect yourself from anti-maskers and other anti-social, infectious individuals. Millions have been doing so for over a year now. Up to you.
 

MplsGopher

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Clear enough?
Frankly, no.

The post I replying to is talking about how there could still be a risk (to a person who is vulnerable to infection) even if everyone around you has been fully vaccinated.

My point is only: if the reason that you're vulnerable is merely because you chose to be that way (you will have no adverse reaction to the vaccine, and it has been available to you for weeks/months whenever you wanted), then the amount I give a crap about you getting infected will drop rapidly to zero as a function of time.


The only reason that distancing and masks need to be mandated, is if there are a significant number of people who are vulnerable, don't want to be, and don't yet have the ability to gain invulnerability. We're still in that phase, but rapidly exiting.
 
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