The new Corona virus, should we worry?

Pompous Elitist

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Curiously Feigl-Ding rarely if ever tweets or repeatedly re-tweets good messages like this regarding the Brazilian variant. Why? 🤔




 

MplsGopher

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We never had that. Ever. And we still don't.
The only way to get that is to do a huge, double-blind, controlled study of the various methods and see which results in more people dying.

How convenient, that you demand a study that can never ethically or legally be done. :rolleyes:
 

MplsGopher

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all hands on deck hard lockdown for 2-3 weeks
Wouldn't have mattered unless either: i) the whole world also did that, or ii) we disallowed all people entering the country until the pandemic was over or until anyone wishing to enter could prove vaccination.
 

MplsGopher

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If it was somehow possible to lock every single person in their homes for 2 weeks at the onset of the pandemic (bring them food/water, the whole bit), sign me up.

Pure fantasy
 

MplsGopher

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The video from Navarro above is probably what some are worried about with making a lab accident more acceptable - people will take it too far and make it a possibly worse international incident.
Yeah gee, I wonder what could go wrong. It's not like random people are committing violent acts of hatred against Asian Americans, is it?

the solitary point source/patient zero in the genomic phylogenetic tree in research-heavy Wuhan is a pretty big coincidence to hand wave away.
Because ... you say so. Neat
 

Section2

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The way you’re suggesting would have made the death count, economy, and mental health even worse.

And we actually didn’t do it anyone’s way because it was a complete cluster f***. We had a president that downplayed it every chance he got and encouraged people to not listen to the experts for political gain. We had some states do almost nothing like South Dakota. We had states like California keep restrictions for way too long which caused people to say “screw this”. It wasn’t a success because people weren’t willing to try to work together. There wasn’t a plan.
Huh? How would they have all been worse? No businesses closed = economy better
Focus quarantine and mask efforts on true at risk population, virus moves thru rest of population faster. Fewer deaths.
shorter quarantine for some, no quarantine for many = lower mental health issues

I can see debating one of the three, but not all. You’re denying that the approach we took involved any trade offs.
 

MplsGopher

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Scientists warn new COVID mutations in a year as vaccines stall

Leading health experts from around the world warned the slow roll-out of vaccines and unequal distribution could mean the shots become ineffective as new coronavirus mutations appear within the next year. Seventy-seven scientists – from leading academic institutions from around the globe – participated in the survey with about 30 percent suggesting second-generation vaccines will be needed as soon as in nine months, unless vaccines become more widely produced and distributed around the world.

Nearly 90 percent of the researchers said more vaccine-resistant mutations are likely because of extremely “low vaccine coverage” in many countries, mostly developing ones.
At the current rate, it is likely that only 10 percent of people in the majority of poor countries will be vaccinated in the next year, according to The People’s Vaccine Alliance, a coalition of more than 50 organisations.

According to the survey, 66 percent of the researchers said human beings have a year or less before the virus mutates and the majority of first-generation vaccines are “rendered ineffective”. Eighteen percent said we have six months or less, and 33 percent predicted about nine months.

The alliance called on all pharmaceutical corporations working on COVID-19 vaccines to openly share their technology and intellectual property through the World Health Organization COVID-19 Technology Access Pool to speed up production and distribution of the jabs around the world. “If we were in a war with a country called COVID, would governments leave vital decisions on production, supply and price in the hands of arms-producing companies?” said Dr Mohga Kamal Yanni, senior health policy advisor to The People Vaccine Alliance.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021...w-covid-mutations-in-a-year-as-vaccines-stall
All true, but these vaccine will be relatively easily adapted to the new mutations.

Part of why they should and will win the Nobel prize.
 

MplsGopher

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Why do you want it to be either way?
The core of the reason you want it to be a lab leak, is because you want it to come out that Sars2 is derived from GoF research.

That's your agenda, plain as day.


I fully admit: I want it to be the case that Sars2 evolved as naturally as Sars and Mers did. Because I hate conspiracy theories, really is the end of it for me.
 

Section2

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As realistic and well thought out as your plans for private roads and replacing the entire TSA in 5 minutes.

Your freedom paradise states like SD and ND did exactly that and still have infections and chugging along at higher rates than MN. But sure "done last summer" would totally have happened.
My private road plan is to privatize some highways. Not realistic? I don’t recall my 5 minute TSA replacement plan. Sounds like straw men.
SD and ND are not my freedom paradise states. They are very slightly more free than MN. Federal government dominates all.
the fear campaign worked, nobody continued normal life.
 

MplsGopher

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There's always the sad reality of states/countries cheating their covid deaths, as well.

I still think at the end of the day that excess deaths is going to be the true story.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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I agree long term it is a big problem but it wasn’t something we would have been able change in months or even a year. Unfortunately that is where we are as a country so the response to Covid had to take that into account.

No, but communication from 'experts' continues to be poor and politically driven rather than having a realistic conversation of who is at risk and who isn't.

Quarantining and masking healthy people has never been supported by any sort of data or Science. As soon as they could use it for a political tool, they did, and continue to do so.

At the beginning, everyone believed in staying home for two weeks to slow the spread to prevent overrunning hospitals in order to help people 65+ or with severe comorbidities. Then it changed to keep everyone from returning to normal until there is a cure, which may never happen, because even today's vaccines don't prevent infection.

Meanwhile there is plenty of data that proves many experts are full of it, and people have had enough. A large portion of the population has lost trust in the experts because of their failure to communicate the real risks, and their continued gloom and doom speech, when the data completely contradicts them.

Age is the #1 risk factor, obesity is #2. We've known that all along. What was the government's solution to that? Shut down gyms, shut down schools, shut down sports, and encourage ordering take out. The exact opposite of what should have happened.
 
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short ornery norwegian

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Patients hospitalized at highest level since Jan. 30
Patients in ICU at highest level since Jan 24.

MN Covid-19 Update - Weds, March 31

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive cases 489,826 +1,345. Including probable cases 519,529.

Positive test rate 7.1%.

Health-Care workers with positive cases 39,226 +44.

Cases no longer needing isolation 499,395 +1,292.

Active Cases 13,286 +344.

Deaths 6,473 +12. Including probable deaths 6,848.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 4,042 +4. Including probable cases 4,276.

Patients currently Hospitalized 411 +54. Cumulative 27,308 +86.

Patients currently In ICU 102 +13. Cumulative 5,623 +23.

Total PCR tests processed 7,619,309 +19,027. Including antigen testing 8,211,019.

Number of people tested 3,689,024 +5,529.

 
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howeda7

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My private road plan is to privatize some highways. Not realistic? I don’t recall my 5 minute TSA replacement plan. Sounds like straw men.
SD and ND are not my freedom paradise states. They are very slightly more free than MN. Federal government dominates all.
the fear campaign worked, nobody continued normal life.
You argued for all private roads. Even rural ones. How would that work? They would figure it out. Just look at Apple! That was the extent of the detail.

You said you could fire the entire TSA and replace them in 5 minutes (it may have been 15 minutes) It would be so easy! Either way, something only a fool would say.

SD and ND had few/no restrictions. No businesses had to close. No mask requirements. They were still impacted because most people still took it seriously and tried to avoid catching it. Because they have a brain. Because they knew people who got it and were very sick. Because some of them knew people who had died. Not because "the fear campaign worked."

So your plan to let it burn through and reach herd immunity by last summer is ridiculous and foolish. That was never going to happen. SD has the 2nd highest rate of infection in the US (freedom!) and still only about 15% have gotten it to this day. Natural herd immunity was always going to take years and that is why it was never a viable option, Fool2.
 

Section2

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You argued for all private roads. Even rural ones. How would that work? They would figure it out. Just look at Apple! That was the extent of the detail.

You said you could fire the entire TSA and replace them in 5 minutes (it may have been 15 minutes) It would be so easy! Either way, something only a fool would say.

SD and ND had few/no restrictions. No businesses had to close. No mask requirements. They were still impacted because most people still took it seriously and tried to avoid catching it. Because they have a brain. Because they knew people who got it and were very sick. Because some of them knew people who had died. Not because "the fear campaign worked."

So your plan to let it burn through and reach herd immunity by last summer is ridiculous and foolish. That was never going to happen. SD has the 2nd highest rate of infection in the US (freedom!) and still only about 15% have gotten it to this day. Natural herd immunity was always going to take years and that is why it was never a viable option, Fool2.
I argued that all private roads is possible. Because it is. Not my plan.
TSA does nothing, fails security tests, clogs up airports. Private security or run by airlines themselves would be much preferred.
Exactly my point. The fear mongering had a huge effect. We knew early on who was at risk. But played up the risks to all. Athletes might get myocarditis! Failure from public health.
your last graph is ignorant of other pandemics, most recently h1n1, which was deadly to kids. No closures then. Lasted a season. Yes, I think it would have been far preferable for the virus to burn thru as quickly as possible among the population with the highest survival rate. But you’re happy spending $8 trillion to fight the virus. You are ignorant of trade offs.
 

short ornery norwegian

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I get what some people are saying - but the logistics would have been tricky, to say the least.

If the Government came out and said (in more diplomatic terms) that old, sick and fat people had to stay home, but everyone else could go on living their lives, the lawyers would have lined up from here to Eternity to challenge that in court. Not to mention the issues with defining just what constitutes old, sick and fat. Would the Government have had to run body-fat testing to determine who was locked down? if a larger person went to the grocery store, who was supposed to decide if they were too fat to be out in public? (cue the "Too Fat Polka" by Frankie Yankovic)

Like it or not, a state-wide or national lock-down is easier to enforce - and to justify - because it applies to everybody (except for those "essential" workers).
 

Wally

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As realistic and well thought out as your plans for private roads and replacing the entire TSA in 5 minutes.

Your freedom paradise states like SD and ND did exactly that and still have infections and chugging along at higher rates than MN. But sure "done last summer" would totally have happened.

Get rid of the TSA. Why can't I have the choice to fly with no TSA, its total bullshit. I should be able to hop on a plane like a bus. This country is full of pussies.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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I get what some people are saying - but the logistics would have been tricky, to say the least.

If the Government came out and said (in more diplomatic terms) that old, sick and fat people had to stay home, but everyone else could go on living their lives, the lawyers would have lined up from here to Eternity to challenge that in court. Not to mention the issues with defining just what constitutes old, sick and fat. Would the Government have had to run body-fat testing to determine who was locked down? if a larger person went to the grocery store, who was supposed to decide if they were too fat to be out in public? (cue the "Too Fat Polka" by Frankie Yankovic)

Like it or not, a state-wide or national lock-down is easier to enforce - and to justify - because it applies to everybody (except for those "essential" workers).

So your solution is let's not be transparent and make everyone feel equally at risk when they're not, and make everyone suffer for poor choices others made? And we'll close down businesses, force more people into poverty, and make everyone, especially our children suffer mentally and physically.

Sad and selfish
 

Go4Broke

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All true, but these vaccine will be relatively easily adapted to the new mutations.

Part of why they should and will win the Nobel prize.
No one should forget that any Nobel for the Pfizer vaccine will go to a female German scientist (and her husband) who emigrated there from Turkey.
 

MplsGopher

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and make everyone suffer for poor choices others made?
How silly can a, supposedly intelligent, person be???? All these people chose to be obese??

America's obesity problem is genetics and companies pushing awful, cheap food for decades.
 
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