The new Corona virus, should we worry?

cncmin

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No. Again, I’m not suggesting anything other than the recent WHO trip was very odd and the conclusions don’t make sense at this time. Has anyone suggested anything approaching your wierd diatribe? You realize this type of research work has really only been going on for a few decades, and the BSL-4 facility has been around 2015.

Did OJ kill more than two people? He’s out there looking for the real killers, right now. The glove, it didn’t fit.
That's right, there are unknowns, and questions to be answered. What I'm saying is that you are jumping way too hard and fast onto those questions to be answered. We'll find out eventually. Meanwhile, neither you nor I are able to access this information, so it's useless to make conspiracy theories out of the gaps in knowledge...what good does that do anyone? If the time comes we figure out some Chinese lab botched this, let's worry about it then. Nothing we would do about it now anyway.
 

cncmin

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We have talked about this at least 3 times in this thread. Masks and social distancing work.




Also, from your article:



You're not brave enough to actually posit a theory on why there's no flu, but I know you disagree with masks and social distancing, so I truly appreciate you proving yourself wrong.
Knock on wood, but I haven't had a cold or any other significant viral illness since I started wearing a mask in public this past March. Coincidentally, my allergies have also never been better.

What I'm really curious about is the long-term transmission of viruses as a whole - did we knock down a lot of these viruses such that transmission of all viruses will lessen for some time going forward? Will they come back with a vengeance?
 

cncmin

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I'm not certain how much masks work - but I figure it is greater than 0 and it really isn't a bother to wear them so I wear mine everywhere I go when I am supposed to and/or am around people. No biggy and it makes others feel better. Check.

With that said, please don't use "contact tracing" and what "studies" have found using "contact tracing" as anything resembling actual science.
So now you don't believe in contact tracing? WTH/WTF? What is the next obvious reality you will deny in the name of RW politics?
 

short ornery norwegian

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MN Covid-19 Update - Weds, Feb 17

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive Cases 453,324 +672. Including probable cases 475,379.

Health-Care workers with positive cases 37,307 +35.

Cases no longer needing isolation 462,502 +1,096.

Active cases 6,487 -348.

Deaths 6,124 +9. Including probable deaths 6,390.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 3,893 +3. Including probable cases 4,019.

Patients currently Hospitalized 314 -1. Cumulative 25,287 +44.

Patients currently In ICU 54 -3. Cumulative 5,212 +6.

Total tests processed 6,630,126 +18,630.

Number of people tested 3,378,669 +5,037.
 

short ornery norwegian

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Beds-in-use update - website finally updated

Sat, Feb 13
ICU 70
non-ICU 261
total 331

Sund, Feb 14
ICU 64 -6
non-ICU 259 -2
total 323 -8

Mon, Feb 15
ICU 66 +2
non-ICU 256 -3
total 322 -1

Tues, Feb 16
ICU 57 -9
non-ICU 258 +2
total 315 -7

Weds, Feb 17
ICU 54 -3
non-ICU 260 +2
total 314 -1
 

Spoofin

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So now you don't believe in contact tracing? WTH/WTF? What is the next obvious reality you will deny in the name of RW politics?
Don't believe? I have said from the beginning that how we "contract trace" tells us virtually nothing. In a perfect world we can't accurately trace when and where someone got it. What is worse is we do it in a biased way and on a very small subset of people and then make sweeping declarations to support what narrative we want. Do I need to pull out Walz's pie graph again? He should have been removed for ever publishing that POS.

As for the bolded part - please tell me WTH/WTF contact tracing has to do with RW politics? My God - that is all some of you see. I don't believe in the accuracy of it to tell us anything meaningful and you see Left/Right? Amazing. I am also pro-mask and pro-social distancing, so now what???
 

Spoofin

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Of course flu is lessened with so many of us social distancing and wearing masks in public. Duh.
Of course it is lessened. Common Sense.
400,000 to 165 would be a 99.96% drop. That isn't common sense.
Personally, I doubt the #s.
 

justthefacts

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Don't believe? I have said from the beginning that how we "contract trace" tells us virtually nothing. In a perfect world we can't accurately trace when and where someone got it. What is worse is we do it in a biased way and on a very small subset of people and then make sweeping declarations to support what narrative we want. Do I need to pull out Walz's pie graph again? He should have been removed for ever publishing that POS.

As for the bolded part - please tell me WTH/WTF contact tracing has to do with RW politics? My God - that is all some of you see. I don't believe in the accuracy of it to tell us anything meaningful and you see Left/Right? Amazing. I am also pro-mask and pro-social distancing, so now what???

 

LesBolstad

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So again, appears Covid is saving lives by reducing flu ones (at least in MN). Can anyone confirm?
 

Go4Broke

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Safest States During COVID-19 Pandemic
Minnesota #10


As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to make life difficult in the U.S., staying safe is one of Americans’ top concerns. Safety is also essential for getting the economy back on track, as the lower COVID-19 transmission and deaths are in a state, the more that state is able to eliminate restrictions on businesses. We’ll only be able to fully get back to life as normal once most of the population is vaccinated against coronavirus, and it will still be months before we can achieve that.

Our data set includes the rates of COVID-19 transmission, positive testing, hospitalizations and death, as well as the share of the eligible population getting vaccinated.


1613589153118.png

https://wallethub.com/edu/safest-states-during-covid/86567
 
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Go4Broke

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How COVID-19 Ended Flu Season Before It Started
1613589727659.png

Although the U.S. continues to struggle with COVID-19, it has apparently beaten the flu into submission. Since the end of September, the combined total of positive flu cases identified by both public health and clinical labs is fewer than 1,500. There are high schools with more people in them. The phenomenon is not only in the United States — worldwide, rates of influenza are nearly off-the-charts low. When you line multiple years up on the same graph, it can even look like there are no cases of flu this year. That’s how out of step we are with the norm.

We don’t track the flu the way we track COVID-19. The average seasonal flu exists in a weird liminal space, serious enough to keep an eye on, but also not so serious that we are literally trying to count every single case. After all, most people who get sick with the flu won’t even bother to go get tested for it. They’ll have a couple bad days in bed (if they’re able to take off work) and otherwise go about life basically unchanged.

Instead, counts of flu cases come from a few different surveillance systems, including a network of around 100 public health and 300 clinical labs that participate in virologic surveillance, reporting weekly test numbers and positive cases to the CDC. There’s also a network of doctors’ offices reporting cases of “influenza-like illness,” a network of hospitals reporting lab-confirmed cases and mortality surveillance data from the National Center for Health Statistics, which pulls numbers for flu, pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses directly from death certificates.

Between Oct. 1 and Jan. 23, there were a total 142 laboratory-confirmed flu hospitalizations in this country — 0.5 per 100,000 Americans over nearly four months. Typically, by this time of year, we’re talking dozens per 100,000 every week. This massive shift, experts told me, is likely tied to the precautions we’ve taken to avoid catching COVID-19: mask-wearing, social distancing, obsessive cleaning of surfaces (which doesn’t do much to prevent COVID-19 but probably is preventing flu) and even keeping kids out of the classroom.

Influenza hasn’t been our target with all these interventions, but we’ve certainly given it a good pummelling. And that’s because flu just isn’t as transmissible as COVID-19. The R0 (pronounced R naught) — the number that quantifies the average number of people who will catch a virus from a single infected person — is significantly lower for flu than for COVID-19. “R naught is usually around 1 or 1.5 for flu. And for SARS-CoV-2 it’s between 2 and 4,” Topham said, referring to the novel coronavirus’s scientific title.

“When you do masking and social distancing, you can artificially lower R naught. So that probably pushes flu down to a range of less than 1. Somebody gets infected, they infect less than another person, and then it’s not viable.”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-covid-19-ended-flu-season-before-it-started/
 

short ornery norwegian

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Just thinking out loud, but I wonder if all the attention on covid might have led more people to get flu shots?

I know that I have not gotten a flu shot every year, but I did this year. better safe than sorry.

It would be interesting to know the number or percentage of people getting flu shots this year to see if it was higher than average.
 

Triple D

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Just thinking out loud, but I wonder if all the attention on covid might have led more people to get flu shots?

I know that I have not gotten a flu shot every year, but I did this year. better safe than sorry.

It would be interesting to know the number or percentage of people getting flu shots this year to see if it was higher than average.
I got one, but seriously thinking whether or not I'll get one next year if the numbers are that low this year.
 

Nokomis

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Olsterholm was just on MPR talking about variants. I didn't catch all of it, but basically he said the worst may be yet to come. The high point in January will be the new baseline come end of March, just as the high point this summer is the new baseline now. I know people on this board like to dismiss Olsterholm, but he's pretty much nailed everything so far. We simply cannot make enough vaccines fast enough to combat the variants. So now I'm worried again. Not just for the virus, but for how people with react if we have to tighter things back up again.
 

Go4Broke

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1613665994008.png

Deaths nationwide were 20 percent higher than normal from March 15, 2020, to Jan. 30, 2021. Our numbers may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.


Our analysis examines deaths from all causes — not just confirmed cases of coronavirus — beginning when the virus took hold in the United States last spring. That allows comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting, and includes deaths related to disruptions caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself. Epidemiologists refer to fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as “excess deaths.”

Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. Most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/14/us/covid-19-death-toll.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
 
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Spoofin

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Olsterholm was just on MPR talking about variants. I didn't catch all of it, but basically he said the worst may be yet to come. The high point in January will be the new baseline come end of March, just as the high point this summer is the new baseline now. I know people on this board like to dismiss Olsterholm, but he's pretty much nailed everything so far. We simply cannot make enough vaccines fast enough to combat the variants. So now I'm worried again. Not just for the virus, but for how people with react if we have to tighter things back up again.
All I get from this is that Osterholm felt he was falling out of relevance again so made a move to get more publicity. He’ll be on the cable stations in no time. Rinse. Repeat.
 

Nokomis

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All I get from this is that Osterholm felt he was falling out of relevance again so made a move to get more publicity. He’ll be on the cable stations in no time. Rinse. Repeat.
This exact same thing was said in June and then again in December, and look what happened. He's certainly quick to take credit for his predictions; doesn't mean he's wrong.
 

short ornery norwegian

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under 300 people currently hospitalized in MN.

MN Covid-19 Update - Thurs, Feb 18

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive Cases 454,085 +771. Including probable cases 476,292.

Positive Test rate 2.5%.

health-Care workers with positive cases 37,345 +38.

Cases no longer needing isolation 463,041 +539.

Active Cases 6,847 +360.

Deaths 6,135 +11. Including probable deaths 6,404.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 3,899 +6 Including probable cases 4,027.

Patients currently Hospitalized 287 -27. Cumulative 25,341 +54.

Patients currently In ICU 54(no change). Cumulative 5,230 +18.

Total tests processed 6,661,749 +31,198.

Number of people tested 3,386,418 +7,749.
 
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Pompous Elitist

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That's right, there are unknowns, and questions to be answered. What I'm saying is that you are jumping way too hard and fast onto those questions to be answered. We'll find out eventually. Meanwhile, neither you nor I are able to access this information, so it's useless to make conspiracy theories out of the gaps in knowledge...what good does that do anyone? If the time comes we figure out some Chinese lab botched this, let's worry about it then. Nothing we would do about it now anyway.
Again, these are not conspiracy theories. There are many knowledgeable people raising questions. The explanations given by the WHO and China are extremely problematic. The virology field to some degree in some quarters has closed ranks for probably multiple reasons including billions of dollars in grants at stake, and reluctance to step out of line and publicly question colleagues. We’ll see where this all goes over the next 6-12 months. Concerned scientists, the Biden administration don’t seem to have closed the book.
 

Pompous Elitist

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So now you don't believe in contact tracing? WTH/WTF? What is the next obvious reality you will deny in the name of RW politics?
People have to cooperate with contact tracing, and AFAIK there aren’t enough people cooperating to make it worthwhile. It’s mostly been a waste of money in the US.
 

Pompous Elitist

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under 300 people currently hospitalized in MN.

MN Covid-19 Update - Thurs, Feb 18

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive Cases 454,085 +771. Including probable cases 476,292.

Positive Test rate 2.5%.

health-Care workers with positive cases 37,345 +38.

Cases no longer needing isolation 463,041 +539.

Active Cases 6,847 +360.

Deaths 6,135 +11. Including probable deaths 6,404.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 3,899 +6 Including probable cases 4,027.

Patients currently Hospitalized 287 -27. Cumulative 25,341 +54.

Patients currently In ICU 54(no change). Cumulative 5,230 +18.

Total tests processed 6,661,749 +31,198.

Number of people tested 3,386,418 +7,749.
Anecdotal but it really does seem like the proportion of positives that are health care workers has gone to about half what it was, over the last week or two. This may be the effect of the vaccination campaign, second doses kicking in the last several weeks. Seems like uptake of vaccine was around 50% of health care workers (nationally) in all clinics and facilities, which correlates with the decline.
 

cncmin

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Again, these are not conspiracy theories. There are many knowledgeable people raising questions. The explanations given by the WHO and China are extremely problematic. The virology field to some degree in some quarters has closed ranks for probably multiple reasons including billions of dollars in grants at stake, and reluctance to step out of line and publicly question colleagues. We’ll see where this all goes over the next 6-12 months. Concerned scientists, the Biden administration don’t seem to have closed the book.
I'm a knowledgeable person regarding the Kennedy assassination. If I told you that no one knows whether or not there was a second shooter, would I or wouldn't I be spreading conspiracy theories? Maybe you don't know what a conspiracy theory is, or don't realize you are hyping one? Suffice to say there is a consensus theory about the viruses' origins. An alternative theory is that it came from a Chinese lab. There is scant evidence for the Chinese lab theory, and it makes for a great conspiracy theory because there is little to no chance that this conspiracy theory can 100% be proven wrong, so it will probably live forever. All of that is characteristic of a conspiracy theory.

Worse, no matter if there is ever severely strong evidence that the origins of this were indeed all "natural", there is little to no chance of you ever being persuaded. You are convinced in the conspiracy theory. Again, all of that is characteristic of a conspiracy theory.
 
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cncmin

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Just thinking out loud, but I wonder if all the attention on covid might have led more people to get flu shots?

I know that I have not gotten a flu shot every year, but I did this year. better safe than sorry.

It would be interesting to know the number or percentage of people getting flu shots this year to see if it was higher than average.
It's easier than that. Flu spreads similarly to Covid-19, but with less veracity of spreading. The same measures that tamp down on (but have not eliminated) Covid-19 (masks, social distancing) have made spread of flu extremely difficult. Flu is not the only virus to drop in numbers big time this year.
 

Spoofin

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It's easier than that. Flu spreads similarly to Covid-19, but with less veracity of spreading. The same measures that tamp down on (but have not eliminated) Covid-19 (masks, social distancing) have made spread of flu extremely difficult. Flu is not the only virus to drop in numbers big time this year.
A 99.96% drop seems reasonable to you?
 

cncmin

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A 99.96% drop seems reasonable to you?
First, show your data and your math. Second, given a season in which a significant portion of the earth's people were not intermingling, and most of the rest were wearing masks in public and staying away from public events, all I can say about that is that will result in some strange statistics that fall way outside of control limits.
 

BarnBurner

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Olsterholm was just on MPR talking about variants. I didn't catch all of it, but basically he said the worst may be yet to come. The high point in January will be the new baseline come end of March, just as the high point this summer is the new baseline now. I know people on this board like to dismiss Olsterholm, but he's pretty much nailed everything so far. We simply cannot make enough vaccines fast enough to combat the variants. So now I'm worried again. Not just for the virus, but for how people with react if we have to tighter things back up again.
Except MASKS
 
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