The new Corona virus, should we worry?

fan of Ray Williams

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 3, 2009
Messages
6,514
Reaction score
381
Points
83
I will get one of those elephant tranquilizer dart guns. I am sure we have your address on "The List"....😎
It's getting narrowed down. In a "house", with some others since he mentioned "us" and near "Hudson".
Put a little extra in the dart gun just for $hits and giggles.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,012
Reaction score
1,688
Points
113
Yes, short range aerosol droplets. Not drifting in the air currents down the hallway.

:LOL::LOL::LOL:


Told ya @Wally. He was going to come back with some hyper-literal technical "gotcha" that doesn't help anything, just trying to "win" at something, as he's been wrong at every point in this pandemic.
Evidence supports that I’m very much right on this. If evidence changes I’ll shift my beliefs but the onus is on you guys - the fear mongers - to produce it. Is this wierd belief of yours why you post all day from the positive pressure der schrecken bunker? Have you seen daylight in the last eight months, Rasputin?
 

Wally

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 15, 2016
Messages
3,174
Reaction score
1,310
Points
113
Evidence supports that I’m very much right on this. If evidence changes I’ll shift my beliefs but the onus is on you guys - the fear mongers - to produce it. Is this wierd belief of yours why you post all day from the positive pressure der schrecken bunker? Have you seen daylight in the last eight months, Rasputin?
Im not scared, I played hockey with a Covid positive person on Sunday. They got sick Monday so basically the worst timing. Glad I wore my N95 the whole time in the locker room.

Only thing I am scared of is my kids school getting shutdown. They have 3 positives in 2 days now, luckily none in my kids grades otherwise they distance for 2 weeks.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,012
Reaction score
1,688
Points
113
This is why we need to make life difficult for psycho assholes like this.

We don't let their kids in public schools (unless they have a valid doctor confirm a valid diagnosis of allergy to the vaccine ingredients) without vaccines.

We shouldn't let people who refuse the covid vaccine do certain things: open new bank accounts, apply for mortgages, apply to start new small businesses, etc.

Things like that, work for me!
But definitely allowed to vote. If it’s for a certain side.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,012
Reaction score
1,688
Points
113
Im not scared, I played hockey with a Covid positive person on Sunday. They got sick Monday so basically the worst timing. Glad I wore my N95 the whole time in the locker room.

Only thing I am scared of is my kids school getting shutdown. They have 3 positives in 2 days now, luckily none in my kids grades otherwise they distance for 2 weeks.
Good thing it’s mostly spread at short range rather than aerosolizing the entire school.

Speaking of the airborne spread thing, what is the infection rate at schools? Anyone know? Must be sky high.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,012
Reaction score
1,688
Points
113
Can we put this weary discussion to bed? From the CDC:


What does airborne transmission mean?

Airborne can be used to describe any size particle (e.g., droplet, dust, pollen) capable of travel through the air. For respiratory droplets, that can include droplets that are close to the source and those that have moved farther away. However, most infectious disease and public health experts reserve the term airborne specifically for use in the context of airborne transmission to describe infections capable of being transmitted through exposure to infectious, pathogen-containing, small droplets and particles suspended in the air over long distances and that persist in the air for long times.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,012
Reaction score
1,688
Points
113
Here? I mean, technically speaking, I suppose that's a fact, but it's pretty damn bad here in the U.S. That it could be even worse is not heartening.
Case rates have been much worse in some European countries recently so yes, it could be much worse. Worse in terms of cases, worse in terms of transmissibility, and worse in terms of morbidly and mortality.

That doesn’t mean it isn’t much worse than season flu. The main problem right now in the upper Midwest is either a lack of hospital personnel or a lack of personnel willing to work, or able to work, or some combination. The solution of getting people to distance and protect themselves appropriately to bring case rates down to meet workforce capacity is an argument.
 

cncmin

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
17,253
Reaction score
1,493
Points
113
Case rates have been much worse in some European countries recently so yes, it could be much worse. Worse in terms of cases, worse in terms of transmissibility, and worse in terms of morbidly and mortality.

That doesn’t mean it isn’t much worse than season flu. The main problem right now in the upper Midwest is either a lack of hospital personnel or a lack of personnel willing to work, or able to work, or some combination. The solution of getting people to distance and protect themselves appropriately to bring case rates down to meet workforce capacity is an argument.
The main problem seems to be the spread like wildfire amongst the rural populace, where even though the population concentration is low, mask wearing frequency is low and social gathering (without masks) is high, leading to fast spread. Additionally, we Americans are pretty weak-willed, overall, and are unable to stomach the idea of having to do things differently than we always have. So we whine about simple things like wearing a mask in public, or standing 6 feet apart, and very, very many refuse to partake in such difficult actions, or what some even consider "tyranny".

Same goes in other places around the world, as well, though, not just here. In the end, humans aren't as intelligent or civilized as we like to think we are; we're still just relatively intelligent animals. None of this has to be this bad. Humanity fails itself.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,012
Reaction score
1,688
Points
113
The main problem seems to be the spread like wildfire amongst the rural populace, where even though the population concentration is low, mask wearing frequency is low and social gathering (without masks) is high, leading to fast spread. Additionally, we Americans are pretty weak-willed, overall, and are unable to stomach the idea of having to do things differently than we always have. So we whine about simple things like wearing a mask in public, or standing 6 feet apart, and refuse to partake in such "tyranny". Same goes in other places around the world, as well, though, not just here. In the end, humans aren't as intelligent or civilized as we like to think we are; we're still just relatively intelligent animals. None of this has to be this bad. Humanity fails itself.
Do you interact with human beings much? Serious question. Once I realized we weren’t going to enforce real lockdowns back in March and April to get case rates way down and get the virus suppressed this outcome was very predictable. It isn’t outrageous to try to manage cases while not destroying people’s livelihoods and socialization. There are things worse than death, for many people. I realize that may not apply to you personally.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,012
Reaction score
1,688
Points
113
You guys also forget about the current and future adverse health outcomes resulting from the shutdowns. Physically via delayed diagnosis, poor management, late management. Telehealth.

Psychological problems are a real issue. Mass anxiety, depression and predictable knock on effects down the road. There were a ton on the edge to begin with. This thing lit a bonfire.
 

cncmin

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
17,253
Reaction score
1,493
Points
113
You guys also forget about the current and future adverse health outcomes resulting from the shutdowns. Physically via delayed diagnosis, poor management, late management. Telehealth.

Psychological problems are a real issue. Mass anxiety, depression and predictable knock on effects down the road. There were a ton on the edge to begin with. This thing lit a bonfire.
I don't think anyone analyzing the situation is forgetting about any of these things. It's a balance. There are some pretty bad psychological problems arising from continued rampant spread, hospitalizations, and deaths, as well, and no one should forget about what this is doing as a whole to people's psychology. One could make a pretty strong argument that a strong part of the absolute lunacy of the cult of Trumpism is due to this virus, as well.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,012
Reaction score
1,688
Points
113
Is it odd Walz can shut down businesses but cannot mandate hospitals and other facilities to provide adequate and plentiful PPE (not source control) to workers in the state of 3M? This is specifically regarding the Nurses Association of Minnesota representative stating they dont have adequate PPE which has certainly led to staff infections, death, and voluntary resignations.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
18,084
Reaction score
3,473
Points
113
particles suspended in the air over long distances and that persist in the air for long times.

🙄

"long" 🙄


"Some men are longer than others."
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
18,084
Reaction score
3,473
Points
113
The main problem seems to be the spread like wildfire amongst the rural populace, where even though the population concentration is low, mask wearing frequency is low and social gathering (without masks) is high, leading to fast spread. Additionally, we Americans are pretty weak-willed, overall, and are unable to stomach the idea of having to do things differently than we always have. So we whine about simple things like wearing a mask in public, or standing 6 feet apart, and very, very many refuse to partake in such difficult actions, or what some even consider "tyranny".

Same goes in other places around the world, as well, though, not just here. In the end, humans aren't as intelligent or civilized as we like to think we are; we're still just relatively intelligent animals. None of this has to be this bad. Humanity fails itself.
The other half of the coin is that healthcare workers are human. And they're already exhausted.

Their working conditions over this past March-April was a marathon.

And now they're supposed to do an Ironman over this current mid-Oct through say mid-March?

F that. They won't make it. They'll burn out. Think we're already seeing that to some extent.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,012
Reaction score
1,688
Points
113
I don't think anyone analyzing the situation is forgetting about any of these things. It's a balance. There are some pretty bad psychological problems arising from continued rampant spread, hospitalizations, and deaths, as well, and no one should forget about what this is doing as a whole to people's psychology. One could make a pretty strong argument that a strong part of the absolute lunacy of the cult of Trumpism is due to this virus, as well.
In my personal experience people have a lot of irrational fear. Myocarditis, Covid brain, potential poorly understood autoimmunity-like issues (long hauler syndrome/ fibromyalgia/CFS common in middle aged women), encephalitis.

There is a lot of amplification of potential problems that are probably low incidence, without nuance of what’s understood versus what isn’t. Some people that should know a lot better are engaging in this as well causing real harm.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,012
Reaction score
1,688
Points
113
The other half of the coin is that healthcare workers are human. And they're already exhausted.

Their working conditions over this past March-April was a marathon.

And now they're supposed to do an Ironman over this current mid-Oct through say mid-March?

F that. They won't make it. They'll burn out. Think we're already seeing that to some extent.
You don’t know how long this will go. Even if it went completely unmitigated it would turn down far before March. But, If you know a good solution...shall we ask China how to get case rates close to zero?

Perhaps they shouldn’t have shut down nursing programs this spring and summer...
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,012
Reaction score
1,688
Points
113
particles suspended in the air over long distances and that persist in the air for long times.

🙄

"long" 🙄


"Some men are longer than others."
You can argue with the CDC if you want. What do they know about airborne pathogens anyway.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
18,084
Reaction score
3,473
Points
113
If the current rates magically stopped rising, and stayed flat for the next X days, what is X that gets us to 60% of the population infected?

I don't think mid-March would be out of the question.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
18,084
Reaction score
3,473
Points
113
What does the CDC define as "long"?

Seems to be suspiciously missing!
 

cncmin

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
17,253
Reaction score
1,493
Points
113
The other half of the coin is that healthcare workers are human. And they're already exhausted.

Their working conditions over this past March-April was a marathon.

And now they're supposed to do an Ironman over this current mid-Oct through say mid-March?

F that. They won't make it. They'll burn out. Think we're already seeing that to some extent.
Americans are treating our healthcare workers like excrement by this carelessness.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 24, 2013
Messages
8,079
Reaction score
1,422
Points
113
Is it odd Walz can shut down businesses but cannot mandate hospitals and other facilities to provide adequate and plentiful PPE (not source control) to workers in the state of 3M? This is specifically regarding the Nurses Association of Minnesota representative stating they dont have adequate PPE which has certainly led to staff infections, death, and voluntary resignations.
That's an interesting comment because the nurses and a doctor I know between MN and SD tell me that PPE is not an issue, and hasn't been an issue for a long time.
 

cncmin

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
17,253
Reaction score
1,493
Points
113
That's an interesting comment because the nurses and a doctor I know between MN and SD tell me that PPE is not an issue, and hasn't been an issue for a long time.
If one guy somewhere says it, then it surely is the same everywhere else.

Your sources of information have proven time and again to be, at best, suspect. Do yourself a favor and better inform yourself.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
18,084
Reaction score
3,473
Points
113
If the current rates magically stopped rising, and stayed flat for the next X days, what is X that gets us to 60% of the population infected?

I don't think mid-March would be out of the question.
Very rough calcs:

US total population: 330M
18+ is 75%: 247.5M

12.33M confirmed cases (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) which is about 5% of 18+.

Let's say the true number of infected is actually 20%, so 49.5M, leaving 80% or 198M.

To get to 60% infected, would require another let's just call it 100M to become infected.


At 100k new cases per day average, that takes 1000 days
At 150k new cases per day average, that takes 667 days
At 200k new cases per day average, that takes 500 days
At 250k new cases per day average, that takes 400 days
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
18,084
Reaction score
3,473
Points
113
If one guy somewhere says it, then it surely is the same everywhere else.

Your sources of information have proven time and again to be, at best, suspect. Do yourself a favor and better inform yourself.
Why on Earth would he do that??? That just shoots down the alternate reality he wants to pretend is the truth.
 

cncmin

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
17,253
Reaction score
1,493
Points
113
Do you interact with human beings much? Serious question. Once I realized we weren’t going to enforce real lockdowns back in March and April to get case rates way down and get the virus suppressed this outcome was very predictable. It isn’t outrageous to try to manage cases while not destroying people’s livelihoods and socialization. There are things worse than death, for many people. I realize that may not apply to you personally.
I'm an engineer. I solve difficult problems for a living. Comparatively, I don't think the solutions to any of this are all that difficult. The only part that makes it difficult are intransigent people who are too selfish to care about anyone other than themselves. This could have/should have been tamped down and all-but-over in a month or two, but for the intransigent persons.

Now, if you're arguing that because the intransigent persons exist, that solving the problem by simple methods is impossible, then so be it. But the blame then lies on the selfish, intransigent persons, not on those trying to actually solve the problem.
 
Last edited:

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
18,084
Reaction score
3,473
Points
113
The hard part of this has been the same since the beginning, and has been unlike any disease in the recorded history of humanity: there has never been a disease that has the ability to kill a significant percentage of people and yet doesn't even cause symptoms in a lot of people.

At least with flu/cold, people usually feel sick or they're hacking up lungs, etc. and people stay away. With the measels, there are spots all over their skin, people stay away.

Covid ... a lot of time, nothing. Yet the person is just as contagious, and it is highly contagious.

HPV is highly contagious and doesn't cause visable symptoms in most people, but it also doesn't kill most people (directly anyway, I know it can cause cervical cancer).


It's like some alien species engineered it just to F with us.
 
Top Bottom