The new Corona virus, should we worry?

[Spoofin]

That’s from May. There’s been two new reports since then.

Do you know what the estimated IFRs were in those two reports?

 

[Livingat45north]

Listen to the experts.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Do you know what the estimated IFRs were in those two reports?

The July one was 0.65%. The recent one broke it down by age group but didn’t say overall.

July: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...ios-archive/planning-scenarios-2020-09-10.pdf

Sept: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

 

[Spoofin]

The July one was 0.65%. The recent one broke it down by age group but didn’t say overall.

July: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...ios-archive/planning-scenarios-2020-09-10.pdf

Sept: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Thanks GII

 

[Spoofin]

The July one was 0.65%. The recent one broke it down by age group but didn’t say overall.

July: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...ios-archive/planning-scenarios-2020-09-10.pdf

Sept: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Summary of the 2nd one (9/10/2020)...


Wow - the difference by ages.

 

[GopherJake]

Anyway, he claims there has been 50,000 excess suicides in the U.S. since the Covid lockdowns started.

So excess is equivalent to the estimated total for the entire year?

 

[Plausible Deniability]

I don't care who you are, that's a STRONG 'stache that guys got going

 

[justthefacts]

 

[GophersInIowa]

Summary of the 2nd one (9/10/2020)...
View attachment 10054

Wow - the difference by ages.

I would be very interested in more info on ages of hospitalizations and breakdowns of how long they’re there. We know the median age of hospitalizations is lower than deaths. How long is each age group in the hospital would be interesting to see.

 

[CutDownTheNet]

So excess is equivalent to the estimated total for the entire year?

Apparently.

This was a brief part of a longer podcast and he didn't give specific numbers.

But I look right now and see that "normal" (which doesn't seem like a good use of the term) suicide rate ranges from about 8 per 100K in New Jersey to about 25 per 100K in New Mexico. So yeah, averaging a bit over 50,000 per year.

And a lot of places are saying increases of 70% or more during this Covid year. So that guestimate doesn't quite add up - makes for more like an extra 30,000 suicides, not the 50,000 increase he was claiming.

But yeah, order of magnitude (projected through the end of the year) he's predicting what amounts to a doubling in suicides. Not sure how accurate he will be - sounds a little high to me.

I know of a son of an acquaintance who committed suicide earlier this year.

 

[CutDownTheNet]

Listen to the experts.

Gotta agree with Joe on this one. Fauci didn't do so good, and to the extent that Trump also said stupid Coronavirus things, these pretty much came from Fauci. Fauci was a re-assuring old man on TV for a while, but Trump should have canned him.

 

[GopherJake]

Apparently.

This was a brief part of a longer podcast and he didn't give specific numbers.

But I look right now and see that "normal" (which doesn't seem like a good use of the term) suicide rate ranges from about 8 per 100K in New Jersey to about 25 per 100K in New Mexico. So yeah, averaging a bit over 50,000 per year.

And a lot of places are saying increases of 70% or more during this Covid year. So that guestimate doesn't quite add up - makes for more like an extra 30,000 suicides, not the 50,000 increase he was claiming.

But yeah, order of magnitude (projected through the end of the year) he's predicting what amounts to a doubling in suicides. Not sure how accurate he will be - sounds a little high to me.

I know of a son of an acquaintance who committed suicide earlier this year.

Lots of razzing and hardball on this site, but to address the final sentence of your post: that sucks and very sorry to hear it. I have a relative of a future relative (not married yet) who committed suicide this year. I did not know the person, but the point is, it happens. And it sucks.

That said, the estimate I saw for 2020 US suicide rate was 15.3/100k. Data is not complete and won’t be for quite a while. But I don’t believe your man is close. I don’t believe all the wild speculation that deaths have dramatically risen in non-Covid categories like suicide, drug overdoses, etc. I’ve seen no convincing data, just baseless assertions by resident shills like BGA, etc who have an agenda.

 

[CutDownTheNet]

Lots of razzing and hardball on this site, but to address the final sentence of your post: that sucks and very sorry to hear it. I have a relative of a future relative (not married yet) who committed suicide this year. I did not know the person, but the point is, it happens. And it sucks.

That said, the estimate I saw for 2020 US suicide rate was 15.3/100k. Data is not complete and won’t be for quite a while. But I don’t believe your man is close. I don’t believe all the wild speculation that deaths have dramatically risen in non-Covid categories like suicide, drug overdoses, etc. I’ve seen no convincing data, just baseless assertions by resident shills like BGA, etc who have an agenda.

I tend to agree that this is an over-estimate. Just seems high to me. I found it very hard to get 2020 statistics though. Lots of good websites with data from 2017 or 2018. Not sure if there's just no data out there, or more likely, Google just sucks at giving you good search results.

> but to address the final sentence of your post: that sucks and very sorry to hear it. I have a relative of a future relative (not married yet) who committed suicide this year. I did not know the person, but the point is, it happens. And it sucks.

In the case that I know of, the person although not related to me, was few enough hops of friendship away that i could have reached out to them and befriended them, because they were in Minneapolis. It just makes me wonder, if I had done so, would that have just given them someone to talk to, and maybe that might be enough for them to have a better outlook on life, and maybe prevented a tragedy. I can't give myself a guilt trip for not doing so, as I had no clue of the situation at the time, and actually forgot about this person until I heard the bad news.

 

[GopherJake]

That was a typo.

Should have been ...

the statistical accuracy gets better (that is, the statistical error gets smaller) proportional to the square root of the sample size.

See Standard Error of the Mean at wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_error

Missed this one. Apologies. While your modified statement here is correct, your link is not. This is not the correct formula. I'll give you some bonus points, however, if you can track down the correct formula for calculating the margin of error, given a particular confidence interval, for the situation we are discussing.

I'll give you a hint here - we aren't sampling values - like height or degree of shill-ness. We are sampling yes/no, presence/absence.

 

[GopherJake]

I tend to agree that this is an over-estimate. Just seems high to me. I found it very hard to get 2020 statistics though. Lots of good websites with data from 2017 or 2018. Not sure if there's just no data out there, or more likely, Google just sucks at giving you good search results.

The data lags by a significant amount of time for what I imagine are a variety of reasons. I'm basing my 15.3/100K figure off this link:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/suicide-rate-by-country

In the case that I know of, the person although not related to me, was few enough hops of friendship away that i could have reached out to them and befriended them, because they were in Minneapolis. It just makes me wonder, if I had done so, would that have just given them someone to talk to, and maybe that might be enough for them to have a better outlook on life, and maybe prevented a tragedy. I can't give myself a guilt trip for not doing so, as I had no clue of the situation at the time, and actually forgot about this person until I heard the bad news.

A natural thought process. Thanks for sharing.

 

[justthefacts]

 

[Wally]

Looks like Trumps healthcare plan has death panels....sweet

 

[ecoperson]

You are so dishonest. Covid is deadly for people who are very old and/or very overweight/obese. For everyone else, you would be as good or better of getting covid than the flu.

So you are neither very old or very overweight/obese. I am starting to think that you lack compassion just like your Dear Leader. If it doesn't kill ME, I am fine with it... I don't care about its impacts to someone's parent or grandparent who happens to suffer from the dreaded bad luck of old age. Let's see if you are singing the same tune when it affects one of your own. I can hear your conversation now. "Pops... it's been good knowing you but I had to express my political views by not wearing a mask and attending cult rallies... I can't be bothered showing an ounce of precaution... see you in heaven! Adios!"

 

[howeda7]

So you are neither very old or very overweight/obese. I am starting to think that you lack compassion just like your Dear Leader. If it doesn't kill ME, I am fine with it... I don't care about its impacts to someone's parent or grandparent who happens to suffer from the dreaded bad luck of old age. Let's see if you are singing the same tune when it affects one of your own. I can hear your conversation now. "Pops... it's been good knowing you but I had to express my political views by not wearing a mask and attending cult rallies... I can't be bothered showing an ounce of precaution... see you in heaven! Adios!"

Beeg mystifies me on this. I don't know exactly how old he is, but it seems like anyone who fondly remembers the Musselman era of Gopher basketball is old enough they should take COVID at least somewhat seriously.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Some people just suck.

 

[bga1]

So you are neither very old or very overweight/obese. I am starting to think that you lack compassion just like your Dear Leader. If it doesn't kill ME, I am fine with it... I don't care about its impacts to someone's parent or grandparent who happens to suffer from the dreaded bad luck of old age. Let's see if you are singing the same tune when it affects one of your own. I can hear your conversation now. "Pops... it's been good knowing you but I had to express my political views by not wearing a mask and attending cult rallies... I can't be bothered showing an ounce of precaution... see you in heaven! Adios!"

I am 65 and not obese. I understand solutions. You look at the problem and you target it. The problem is that the disease attacks old people, obese people and immune compromised people. The solution is to help that group isolate while making sure the rest save the economy from ruin. The despair and ruin caused by lockdown measures will be studied for years and those who recommended one size fits all solutions - such as Walz has will not be viewed as compassionate but rather as foolish.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Whoa! Hospitalization numbers with a Big jump. And that was confirmed by the media. also three consecutive days with positive test rate over 10%. To quote Tommy Lee Jones, if it ain't a mess, it'll do til the mess gets here.

MN Covid-19 Update - Thurs, Oct 29

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive Cases 141,789 +2,849. (positive test rate 10.5%)

Health-Care workers with positive cases 14,095 +157.

Cases no longer needing isolation 124,379 +850.

Active Cases 15,006 +1,964.

Deaths 2,404 +31.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 1,679 +19.

Patients currently Hospitalized 867+187. cumulative 9,991 +136.

Patients currently In ICU 173 +9. cumulative 2,642 +33.

Total tests 2,742,869 +27,144.

Number of people tested 1,819,873 +18,869.

 

[GoodasGold]

So you are neither very old or very overweight/obese. I am starting to think that you lack compassion just like your Dear Leader. If it doesn't kill ME, I am fine with it... I don't care about its impacts to someone's parent or grandparent who happens to suffer from the dreaded bad luck of old age. Let's see if you are singing the same tune when it affects one of your own. I can hear your conversation now. "Pops... it's been good knowing you but I had to express my political views by not wearing a mask and attending cult rallies... I can't be bothered showing an ounce of precaution... see you in heaven! Adios!"

He won’t be seeing him in heaven.

 

[GoodasGold]

All healthcare is rationed to some extent. Even IMPOTUS’ care was rationed:
- he was allowed only 1 round trip helicopter transport to and from hospital.
- he was provided with only 1 team of ten doctors to administer his care plan.
- he was allowed only 1 parade during his inpatient stay.
- he was given only 1 unlimited dose of every know therapeutic and/or experimental drug known to Medicine.
And he recovered quite well, thank you very much.

 

[ecoperson]

I am 65 and not obese. I understand solutions. You look at the problem and you target it. The problem is that the disease attacks old people, obese people and immune compromised people. The solution is to help that group isolate while making sure the rest save the economy from ruin. The despair and ruin caused by lockdown measures will be studied for years and those who recommended one size fits all solutions - such as Walz has will not be viewed as compassionate but rather as foolish.

I don't think anyone is advocating a one size fits all solution... they are looking for an organized, well-thought out response. THAT is what has been lacking nationally. There is no plan for how to isolate those who are risk from the herd. Do you want to be locked up in a bubble when you turn 70? The time to act was in January and February... instead we had an administration that stuck their head in the sand and prayed that this would go away in the spring. Had the administration had a plan, THERE WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN A NEED FOR SUCH BROAD ECONOMIC LOCKDOWNS!

 

[Plausible Deniability]

Imposing travel bans from China at the end of January is sticking your head in the sand?

Pelosi and Cuomo both wildly dismissing the dangers of the virus and encouraging people to go about their business in mid-February sounds a LOT more like sticking your head in the sand than what the WH did, you think?

 

[BarnBurner]

Some people just suck.

Especially those that dont quarantine.....for others.

 

[GoodasGold]

I don't think anyone is advocating a one size fits all solution... they are looking for an organized, well-thought out response. THAT is what has been lacking nationally. There is no plan for how to isolate those who are risk from the herd. Do you want to be locked up in a bubble when you turn 70? The time to act was in January and February... instead we had an administration that stuck their head in the sand and prayed that this would go away in the spring. Had the administration had a plan, THERE WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN A NEED FOR SUCH BROAD ECONOMIC LOCKDOWNS!

C’mon now! How was IMPOTUS to know? When he said Covid would just disappear he was thinking it would be like his bone spurs.

 

[howeda7]

All healthcare is rationed to some extent. Even IMPOTUS’ care was rationed:
- he was allowed only 1 round trip helicopter transport to and from hospital.
- he was provided with only 1 team of ten doctors to administer his care plan.
- he was allowed only 1 parade during his inpatient stay.
- he was given only 1 unlimited dose of every know therapeutic and/or experimental drug known to Medicine.
And he recovered quite well, thank you very much.

Did he still get two (2) scoops?

 

[GoodasGold]

Did he still get two (2) scoops?

Only 1 serving of 2 scoops, yes!