The new Corona virus, should we worry?

MplsGopher

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The number of excess deaths in 2020 due to the Pandemic.

As it said
 

MplsGopher

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There can be no greater irony than this: if Trump loses the election, it will be entirely the fault of those who acted selfishly to preserve their own "freedoms" at the cost of prolonging the pandemic.

They kicked their own cult leader out of office, for refusing to do what a good human does: care about other humans.
 

short ornery norwegian

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six consecutive days with positive test rate 6% or higher.

note- the 'beds in use' site only reports on weekdays, so no updated daily numbers for patients hospitalized and in ICU.

One of my co-workers has been out sick all week. he got a covid test, but doesn't have the results back yet, and company policy says he can't return until he gets the result, so I'm trying to cover all of his duties and my own simultaneously. Which sucks donkey dicks.

MN Covid-19 Update - Sat, Oct 17

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive cases 120,818 +1,682. (positive test rate 6.2%)

Health-Care Workers with positive cases 12,315 +146.

Cases no longer requiring isolation 106,744 +1,624.

Active Cases 11,866 +44.

Deaths 2,208 +5.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 1,554 +1.

Total Hospitalized- cumulative 8,801 +83.

Total In ICU- cumulative 2,393 +18.

Total tests processed 2,458,271 +27,145.

Number of People tested 1,661,351 +14,649.
 

short ornery norwegian

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Why is the CDC not have a national conversation about obesity? Who knows, maybe the CDC is trying but the media won't touch it?

Want to beat covid? Attack obesity
Want to beat lessen heart disease? Obesity
Diabetes Type II? Obesity
Lower health care costs? Obesity

Obesity rates have really good correlation with Covid experience in nations. Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam- all incredibly low obesity rates 2%- 6% range. Vietnam- 90 million people- 35 deaths- 2% obesity.

US- 40%

But Trump! That's why we are not hearing much about obesity right now- it goes against the orange man bad narrative of the media. If obesity is the real underlying issue that exacerbates the covid problem then it wouldn't be Trump's fault. So let's not discuss.

The media is the enemy of the people. It should be the voice of the people and the voice of truth. Instead it is the voice of lies and propaganda.
Obesity has a lot of facets. Eating healthy is more expensive than eating junk. It takes longer to prepare. So a lot of families simply don't want to take the time, or spend the money, to eat healthy.
it's easier to just order another pizza or call grub hub for a carry-out order.

Our culture is bombarded with ads for fast-food places - which are also some of the least healthy places to eat at. The soft drink industry bombards us with ads for pop - the sugary version and the diet version. When I had my heart attack, one the first things they told me was to stop drinking diet pop - because it's not as 'good' for you as people think.

there is a reason for the name "comfort" food. our society uses food as a treat, a reward, or as solace for bad times. feeling good - have something to eat. feeling bad - have something to eat.

So our culture pounds us with ads for the wrong food. to counter that, somebody (the government?) would have to spend a bleep-load of money to run ads promoting healthy foods and a healthy lifestyle.

Kids don't exercise. some schools have cut back on phys ed classes due to budget cuts. the video-game industry bombards kids with ads for games that result in kids sitting at home all day and thumbing away at their game console. when I was growing up, you would see kids out in a yard or ball field just having fun and playing pick-up games. now, everything is organized and regimented, but there are fewer kids who just go out and run around for fun. (at least the protests had people out walking.....ha, ha.)

I could go on all day. Or I could just give you the number of my cardiologist.
 

Pompous Elitist

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The number of excess deaths in 2020 due to the Pandemic.

As it said
That was mentioned, along with part of the editorial implying systemic racism is to blame for minorities sometimes not socially distancing, sometimes acting irresponsibly, perhaps at disproportionate rates. In CA for example Latinos have a 3.4x greater rate of Covid-19 test positivity than collectively Asians, whites, blacks. Why? Why does my neighbor hold large bashes throughout the height of a pandemic? Is culture part of it? You betcha.

Poor eating habits, sedentary lifestyles, also the fault of society.
 

MplsGopher

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You clearly need to exercise your Libertarian rage, via fantasies that weren't even remotely stated.

Have at it. Just don't expect me to participate in them.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Obesity has a lot of facets. Eating healthy is more expensive than eating junk. It takes longer to prepare. So a lot of families simply don't want to take the time, or spend the money, to eat healthy.
it's easier to just order another pizza or call grub hub for a carry-out order.

Our culture is bombarded with ads for fast-food places - which are also some of the least healthy places to eat at. The soft drink industry bombards us with ads for pop - the sugary version and the diet version. When I had my heart attack, one the first things they told me was to stop drinking diet pop - because it's not as 'good' for you as people think.

there is a reason for the name "comfort" food. our society uses food as a treat, a reward, or as solace for bad times. feeling good - have something to eat. feeling bad - have something to eat.

So our culture pounds us with ads for the wrong food. to counter that, somebody (the government?) would have to spend a bleep-load of money to run ads promoting healthy foods and a healthy lifestyle.

Kids don't exercise. some schools have cut back on phys ed classes due to budget cuts. the video-game industry bombards kids with ads for games that result in kids sitting at home all day and thumbing away at their game console. when I was growing up, you would see kids out in a yard or ball field just having fun and playing pick-up games. now, everything is organized and regimented, but there are fewer kids who just go out and run around for fun. (at least the protests had people out walking.....ha, ha.)

I could go on all day. Or I could just give you the number of my cardiologist.
Summarizes why we have an odd approach to relative risk in our society. One is far more likely to drop dead early of cardiovascular, cancer issues than COVID-19 yet we don’t ban the worst food offenders (eg soft drinks, French fries, chips, baked goods), ban known carcinogens, or otherwise mandate healthy lifestyles. Something about human nature, black markets, resistance to being told what to do. We seem to have forgotten.
 

scools12

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Not sure if this has been brought up in this thread. Nick Saban test positive for COVID then has three negative tests in a row which would indicate the his positive test was a false positive.

When a state records a positive test are they retesting that individual again? If states are just recording positive tests whether they’re a false positive or not the total number of COVID cases should not by taken serious as any kind of metric.
 
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RahSkiUMah

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Not sure if this has been brought up in this thread. Nick Saban test positive for COVID then has three negative tests in a row which would indicate the his positive test was a false positive.

When a state records a positive test are they retesting that individual again? If states are just recording positive tests whether they’re a false positive or not the total number of COVID cases should not by taken serious as any kind of metric.
Depends on the state, I know some are just reporting the individual and not all of the individuals tests. You have to remember the opposite also happens, serial negative tests by hypochondriacs (sarcasm on the hypochondriacs). It probably relatively evens out with respect to % positivity rates. This is another reason not to put too much stock in case counts alone but also looking at % positivity and hospitalization numbers for a more accurate picture of community spread. Our healthcare professionals understand that, our media probably doesn’t.

Saban was almost definitely a false positive. I’d bet antigen testing false positive, and subsequent negative tests by PCR. I’m sure Alabama is testing him multiple times a week. Actual false positives are pretty rare though, a properly run PCR with negative controls should have extremely low false positive rates. People will debate on the relevance of PCR cycles and its relevance for reporting purposes but actual false positives are rare.
 

scools12

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Depends on the state, I know some are just reporting the individual and not all of the individuals tests. You have to remember the opposite also happens, serial negative tests by hypochondriacs (sarcasm on the hypochondriacs). It probably relatively evens out with respect to % positivity rates. This is another reason not to put too much stock in case counts alone but also looking at % positivity and hospitalization numbers for a more accurate picture of community spread. Our healthcare professionals understand that, our media probably doesn’t.

Saban was almost definitely a false positive. I’d bet antigen testing false positive, and subsequent negative tests by PCR. I’m sure Alabama is testing him multiple times a week. Actual false positives are pretty rare though, a properly run PCR with negative controls should have extremely low false positive rates. People will debate on the relevance of PCR cycles and its relevance for reporting purposes but actual false positives are rare.
I agree with this other than I believe the media knows exactly what they’re doing.

Curious to see if Biden wins the election if the media’s reporting turns from case count to more of a concentration on % positivity and hospitalizations.
 

MplsGopher

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I mean not at all comparable to cardiovascular disease or cancer, in terms of transmissibility.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Not sure if this has been brought up in this thread. Nick Saban test positive for COVID then has three negative tests in a row which would indicate the his positive test was a false positive.

When a state records a positive test are they retesting that individual again? If states are just recording positive tests whether they’re a false positive or not the total number of COVID cases should not by taken serious as any kind of metric.
We know somewhere around 1% or so of PCR tests are false positives because of automated lab process flaws, contamination, human element.

Question: if a traveler dies of Covid-19 in one state, is that death reported to CDC in that state, or state of residence? Are there cross checks by SS# or other identifier to avoid double counts? I’d like to think there are processes in place to account for this but...
 

Pompous Elitist

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Depends on the state, I know some are just reporting the individual and not all of the individuals tests. You have to remember the opposite also happens, serial negative tests by hypochondriacs (sarcasm on the hypochondriacs). It probably relatively evens out with respect to % positivity rates. This is another reason not to put too much stock in case counts alone but also looking at % positivity and hospitalization numbers for a more accurate picture of community spread. Our healthcare professionals understand that, our media probably doesn’t.

Saban was almost definitely a false positive. I’d bet antigen testing false positive, and subsequent negative tests by PCR. I’m sure Alabama is testing him multiple times a week. Actual false positives are pretty rare though, a properly run PCR with negative controls should have extremely low false positive rates. People will debate on the relevance of PCR cycles and its relevance for reporting purposes but actual false positives are rare.
At low population prevalence, percent positivity the false positives dominates, data becomes very noisy.
 

MplsGopher

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Why you think it is an "odd" approach. Clearly it isn't, since it has nothing to do with risk of dying.
 

RahSkiUMah

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I agree with this other than I believe the media knows exactly what they’re doing.

Curious to see if Biden wins the election if the media’s reporting turns from case count to more of a concentration on % positivity and hospitalizations.
My personal view, the left media will inflate the relevance of case counts, right media will inflate the relevance of false positives. They’re all selling something...haha!
 

Wally

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In CA for example Latinos have a 3.4x greater rate of Covid-19 test positivity than collectively Asians, whites, blacks. Why?
Could be that they live in households with many more people and multiple generations, once it gets into a house there is not much stopping it from getting everyone.
 

Spoofin

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six consecutive days with positive test rate 6% or higher.

note- the 'beds in use' site only reports on weekdays, so no updated daily numbers for patients hospitalized and in ICU.

One of my co-workers has been out sick all week. he got a covid test, but doesn't have the results back yet, and company policy says he can't return until he gets the result, so I'm trying to cover all of his duties and my own simultaneously. Which sucks donkey dicks.

MN Covid-19 Update - Sat, Oct 17

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive cases 120,818 +1,682. (positive test rate 6.2%)

Health-Care Workers with positive cases 12,315 +146.

Cases no longer requiring isolation 106,744 +1,624.

Active Cases 11,866 +44.

Deaths 2,208 +5.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 1,554 +1.

Total Hospitalized- cumulative 8,801 +83.

Total In ICU- cumulative 2,393 +18.

Total tests processed 2,458,271 +27,145.

Number of People tested 1,661,351 +14,649.
Well, with positive cases and positive test rates going up - it sure would be nice if MDH didn't remove the daily reporting on hospital and ICU usage. No worries, Walz will make all the right decisions.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Who funds this ****.

Serious question. Guys, listen, you’ve tried really hard, but you’re not good at this. Your schizophrenic up and down predictions from spring onward are beyond silly at this point. You’re off the rails loony birds just throwing darts. Perhaps your funds can go towards tuition reimbursement at U Dub. You’re fired.



 

Pompous Elitist

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That’s true, if you’re not really aiming to drive cases to 0, does it have a big impact on the numbers?
I’d argue it matters on the fringes. We’re going to have a hard time getting cases down around 1 percent positivity rate when half the population is partying like it’s 1999.
 

Pompous Elitist

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My personal view, the left media will inflate the relevance of case counts, right media will inflate the relevance of false positives. They’re all selling something...haha!
It will be interesting to see what happens over the next several weeks. France has the daily equivalent of 140k cases right now, other European nations even more. Will hospitalizations and mortality follow? Will the US have an enormous winter surge? Some hypotheses about to be tested.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Could be that they live in households with many more people and multiple generations, once it gets into a house there is not much stopping it from getting everyone.
Yeah, that’s a factor for sure. It’s not clear attack rate has to be very high though. I’ve seen studies indicating anywhere from low teens to 60+ household attack rate. Stands to reason touch feely families in close quarters, crowding onto furniture, dinner tables will have more problems than people on disparate dinner schedules, less close interaction.
 

short ornery norwegian

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another aspect. the Strib had a story the other day in which health officials claimed/suggested that some parents and children in MN are deliberately not getting tested because they don't want to drive the case rate up in their district - thereby risking that the local school would go to distance learning.

Why - because if the district goes to distance learning, then all sports are cancelled until the district can go back to in-person learning.

In other words, people are deliberately not being tested for a contagious disease, because their #1 priority is making sure their kids can play football or volleyball.

at least, that's what some state officials are contending.

ok - found the article:

But health officials, facing increasing challenges from parents, students and community members trying to conceal the spread of the virus to keep schools open and sports programs running, say those numbers are almost certainly an undercount.

Susan Klammer, an epidemiologist with the department, said in some communities, resistance to testing or quarantining after COVID-19 exposure has become more pronounced — and, in some cases, hostile — in the period since the Minnesota State High School League restarted school sports programs. Klammer said police have been called in cases where health workers were threatened for recommending that students quarantine, and students were threatened and harassed by their peers after seeking COVID-19 testing. Health officials have been notified of schools where groups of students have made pacts not to get tested, and to keep quiet if they think they are sick or have been exposed to the virus.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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another aspect. the Strib had a story the other day in which health officials claimed/suggested that some parents and children in MN are deliberately not getting tested because they don't want to drive the case rate up in their district - thereby risking that the local school would go to distance learning.

Why - because if the district goes to distance learning, then all sports are cancelled until the district can go back to in-person learning.

In other words, people are deliberately not being tested for a contagious disease, because their #1 priority is making sure their kids can play football or volleyball.

at least, that's what some state officials are contending.

ok - found the article:

But health officials, facing increasing challenges from parents, students and community members trying to conceal the spread of the virus to keep schools open and sports programs running, say those numbers are almost certainly an undercount.

Susan Klammer, an epidemiologist with the department, said in some communities, resistance to testing or quarantining after COVID-19 exposure has become more pronounced — and, in some cases, hostile — in the period since the Minnesota State High School League restarted school sports programs. Klammer said police have been called in cases where health workers were threatened for recommending that students quarantine, and students were threatened and harassed by their peers after seeking COVID-19 testing. Health officials have been notified of schools where groups of students have made pacts not to get tested, and to keep quiet if they think they are sick or have been exposed to the virus.
Hard to blame people for not wanting to get tested, especially when they may have no symptoms or not much more than a runny nose. I held out from testing as long as I could myself, my symptoms were next to nothing.

This is the kind of thing you're going to get when you have zero consensus among the "experts" and you have the politicization of the situation and you have a major lack of consistency with how this is being handled across the board.
 
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