The new Corona virus, should we worry?

bga1

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Get outside, get to a gym, stop snacking, portion control. Diet of choice.


“The largest descriptive study yet of hospitalized U.S. COVID-19 patients, posted as a preprint last month by Genentech researchers, found that 77% of nearly 17,000 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were overweight (29%) or obese (48%). (The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention defines overweight as having a BMI of 25 to 29.9 kilograms per square meter, and obesity as a BMI of 30 or greater.)

Another study captured the rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations among more than 334,000 people in England. Published last month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, it found that although the rate peaked in people with a BMI of 35 or greater, it began to rise as soon as someone tipped into the overweight category. “Many people don’t realize they creep into that overweight category,” says first author Mark Hamer, an exercise physiologist at University College London.“



Why is the CDC not have a national conversation about obesity? Who knows, maybe the CDC is trying but the media won't touch it?

Want to beat covid? Attack obesity
Want to beat lessen heart disease? Obesity
Diabetes Type II? Obesity
Lower health care costs? Obesity

Obesity rates have really good correlation with Covid experience in nations. Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam- all incredibly low obesity rates 2%- 6% range. Vietnam- 90 million people- 35 deaths- 2% obesity.

US- 40%

But Trump! That's why we are not hearing much about obesity right now- it goes against the orange man bad narrative of the media. If obesity is the real underlying issue that exacerbates the covid problem then it wouldn't be Trump's fault. So let's not discuss.

The media is the enemy of the people. It should be the voice of the people and the voice of truth. Instead it is the voice of lies and propaganda.
 

JimmyJamesMD

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What is in the bill Wally? Blue state (lock down) bail outs, elimination of voter ID? If so - no thanks.
Devil is in the Blue details.
This should be the world's easiest bill. Always pork. Both sides do it. Just ridiculous!
 

RahSkiUMah

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A new study published October 13 in the journal Immunity - looked at antibody prevalence and long term production (with a handful of patients out to 5-7 months post infection). The study involved detecting antibodies that target three separate areas of the virus.

Previous studies looked at antibodies specific for one of these proteins (the N or nucleocapsid protein), and found that antibody levels fell to undetectable levels within a few months in many people with mild disease (up to 40%). This had raised the question as to whether long term antibody mediated immunity occurs with covid infection in all individuals - an important aspect for both infection induced immunity and vaccine induced immunity.

The study found that by looking at antibodies targeting 2 other viral proteins ("RBD" and "S" proteins), they were able to detect consistent and long term antibody production in individuals exposed to covid infection. Several individuals out to 5-7 months displayed stable antibody production. 5881/5882 individuals screened showed evidence of long term neutralizing antibodies, even those with mild disease!

They also provide evidence to consistent with the previous findings that immune response to N protein is transient in many individuals. So it's not that earlier papers were wrong in regards to long-term antibody mediated immunity (also called humoral immunity), they were just missing the set of antibodies that provide it. There is a lot of interesting info in here.

In summary, it would seem that long-term antibody production is induced by covid infection. These findings are in addition to previous findings that long term T-cell mediated immune responses can also occur with infection. Taken together this provides additional confidence that long term immunity to SARS-CoV-2 can be obtained by infection (and presumably vaccination). This is of course barring viral mutation causing antigenic escape (when the immune system loses its ability to detect an infection).
 

GophersInIowa

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This Lancet paper has 8 interesting references, but otherwise is a worthless paper. They really don't even say anything except more-or-less "we gotta do something about this Covid thing."That, plus a couple bucks, will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

The main thing in the paper seems to be to introduce some resolution that they want you to sign. I didn't bother reading it, cuz if the paper was that bad, then I didn't see much hope for anything useful in the resolution. If anyone wants to read it, maybe I shall stand corrected.

Here's a quote ...

The arrival of a second wave and the realisation of the challenges ahead has led to renewed interest in a so-called herd immunity approach, which suggests allowing a large uncontrolled outbreak in the low-risk population while protecting the vulnerable. Proponents suggest this would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable.

This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence. Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed. Uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity and mortality across the whole population.


So, they slam herd immunity without naming any support for that premise. The reference (#3) that they do refer to in the last sentence is about long-covid, which doesn't seem to have anything to do with their premise.

In short, this might be a decent undergrad term paper in a survey course covering Covid-19. How this got published in the Lancet, I'll never know.
This was in response to the Great Barrington Declaration that was even more vague. Essentially just says to stop lockdowns and shoot for herd immunity. But no plan on how to actually do it. Do we isolate 30% of the population? This is also stating that protecting the vulnerable would be impossible if we just let the virus spread uncontrollably.
 

GophersInIowa

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The authors must realize a “large uncontrolled outbreak in the low-risk population” has been occurring since March in the US in different areas of the country and is ongoing now in most European nations, Canada.
Some people are suggesting to just open everything up, no masks, fill stadiums with 90k+ fans, etc to try to reach herd immunity. Large uncontrolled outbreak would look much different than it currently does. It would be a disaster.
 

short ornery norwegian

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I think they must have processed a backlog of cases - over 43,000 new tests reported.

MN Covid-19 Update - Fri, Oct 16

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive Cases 119,145 +2,287. (positive test rate 5.2%)

Health-Care workers with positive cases 12,169 +145.

Cases no longer needing isolation 105,120 +573.

Active Cases 11,822 +1,696.

Deaths 2,203 +13.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 1553 +7.

Patients hospitalized 484+39. cumulative 8,718 +66.

Patients in ICU 126+11. cumulative 2,375 +13.

Total tests processed 2,430,551 +43,626.

Number of people tested 1,646,704 +23,428.
 

BarnBurner

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Some people are suggesting to just open everything up, no masks, fill stadiums with 90k+ fans, etc to try to reach herd immunity. Large uncontrolled outbreak would look much different than it currently does. It would be a disaster.
Like putting Covid positive folks in with high risk folks? Like in a skilled nursing facility?
 

howeda7

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This was in response to the Great Barrington Declaration that was even more vague. Essentially just says to stop lockdowns and shoot for herd immunity. But no plan on how to actually do it. Do we isolate 30% of the population? This is also stating that protecting the vulnerable would be impossible if we just let the virus spread uncontrollably.
Exactly. Are we going to tell nursing home and hospital workers they can never go home until it's over?
 

Pompous Elitist

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Some people are suggesting to just open everything up, no masks, fill stadiums with 90k+ fans, etc to try to reach herd immunity. Large uncontrolled outbreak would look much different than it currently does. It would be a disaster.
Well, allowing mass gatherings indoors would certainly be the pulling the bandaid quickly approach....IMO a large proportion of citizenry aren’t distancing well anyway (including a lot of the scolds, some in my own extended family...) so we are sort of meandering towards herd immunity rather than getting there in 3-4 months. This keeps the hospital numbers manageable and is the middle course. The worst course would be reinstitution of strict lockdowns and putting off the inevitable spread with accompanying economic and psychological bomb, OR the rip the bandaid approach that could lead to major issues at hospitals that are already on the thin edge of personnel and supplies. There is no perfect option.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Why is the CDC not have a national conversation about obesity? Who knows, maybe the CDC is trying but the media won't touch it?

Want to beat covid? Attack obesity
Want to beat lessen heart disease? Obesity
Diabetes Type II? Obesity
Lower health care costs? Obesity

Obesity rates have really good correlation with Covid experience in nations. Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam- all incredibly low obesity rates 2%- 6% range. Vietnam- 90 million people- 35 deaths- 2% obesity.

US- 40%

But Trump! That's why we are not hearing much about obesity right now- it goes against the orange man bad narrative of the media. If obesity is the real underlying issue that exacerbates the covid problem then it wouldn't be Trump's fault. So let's not discuss.

The media is the enemy of the people. It should be the voice of the people and the voice of truth. Instead it is the voice of lies and propaganda.
Complicated problem. There is an amalgam of some reluctance to “fat shame”, little incentive for physicians to belabor points with people in deep denial, people not knowing what they can do, and a smattering if underlying health issues that can affect weight gain (and loss).

It’s feasible to lose weight eating absolute garbage, in terms of portion control and particularly lower carb approaches. Some people are being told to “ eat healthy”, look at the expense of a plant, fish based diet, and just give up. Sometimes being perfect is the enemy of incremental improvement. Set realistic goals with foods people want to eat. Accept that’s ok.
 

Wally

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Why is the CDC not have a national conversation about obesity? Who knows, maybe the CDC is trying but the media won't touch it?

Want to beat covid? Attack obesity
Want to beat lessen heart disease? Obesity
Diabetes Type II? Obesity
Lower health care costs? Obesity

Obesity rates have really good correlation with Covid experience in nations. Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam- all incredibly low obesity rates 2%- 6% range. Vietnam- 90 million people- 35 deaths- 2% obesity.

US- 40%

But Trump! That's why we are not hearing much about obesity right now- it goes against the orange man bad narrative of the media. If obesity is the real underlying issue that exacerbates the covid problem then it wouldn't be Trump's fault. So let's not discuss.

The media is the enemy of the people. It should be the voice of the people and the voice of truth. Instead it is the voice of lies and propaganda.
Trump is Obese, you think his CDC will say anything about it? ROTFLMAO good luck.

I agree with you tho.
 

Wally

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I think they must have processed a backlog of cases - over 43,000 new tests reported.

MN Covid-19 Update - Fri, Oct 16

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive Cases 119,145 +2,287. (positive test rate 5.2%)

Health-Care workers with positive cases 12,169 +145.

Cases no longer needing isolation 105,120 +573.

Active Cases 11,822 +1,696.

Deaths 2,203 +13.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 1553 +7.

Patients hospitalized 484+39. cumulative 8,718 +66.

Patients in ICU 126+11. cumulative 2,375 +13.

Total tests processed 2,430,551 +43,626.

Number of people tested 1,646,704 +23,428.
Hey at least the hospitals will be making money real soon....
 

MplsGopher

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This might have been reported in this thread already. I haven't kept up with it, for some time.

Anyway, on Oct 12, the Editor In Chief and the Executive Editor of JAMA (The Journal of the American Medical Association), published this editorial article.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771758
Excess Deaths and the Great Pandemic of 2020
Two new reports in JAMA provide updated estimates regarding the mortality associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the US. In a research letter by Woolf and colleagues, the authors update their analysis of the number of “excess” deaths in the US related to COVID-19 and other causes from March 1 through August 1, 2020.1,2 The authors report that during this 5-month period, a total of 1 336 561 deaths occurred in the US, an estimated 20% increase compared with the number of expected deaths, and representing 225 530 excess deaths.2 Approximately 67% of these excess deaths were attributable directly to COVID-19, whereas excess deaths attributed to other causes also could have been related to the pandemic in general.
...
The importance of the estimate by Woolf et al—which suggests that for the entirety of 2020, more than 400 000 excess deaths will occur—cannot be overstated, because it accounts for what could be declines in some causes of death, like motor vehicle crashes, but increases in others, like myocardial infarction. These deaths reflect a true measure of the human cost of the Great Pandemic of 2020. As depicted in the illustration, these deaths far exceed the number of US deaths from some armed conflicts, such as the Korean War and the Vietnam War, and deaths from the 2009 H1N1 (Swine flu) pandemic, and approach the number of deaths from World War II.

 

Wally

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22 ICU beds, 260 non-ICU beds available in ND as of October 16

Time to shut the border down...
 

Minnesota

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Why is the CDC not have a national conversation about obesity? Who knows, maybe the CDC is trying but the media won't touch it?

Want to beat covid? Attack obesity
Want to beat lessen heart disease? Obesity
Diabetes Type II? Obesity
Lower health care costs? Obesity

Obesity rates have really good correlation with Covid experience in nations. Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam- all incredibly low obesity rates 2%- 6% range. Vietnam- 90 million people- 35 deaths- 2% obesity.

US- 40%

But Trump! That's why we are not hearing much about obesity right now- it goes against the orange man bad narrative of the media. If obesity is the real underlying issue that exacerbates the covid problem then it wouldn't be Trump's fault. So let's not discuss.

The media is the enemy of the people. It should be the voice of the people and the voice of truth. Instead it is the voice of lies and propaganda.
You guys lost your minds when Michelle Obama wanted school lunches to be healthy lol.
 

Wally

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This fall surge is going to be interesting...when and how high will it peak? I think even with no more restrictions the economy could get slammed hard again if ICU's start filling up like North Dakota is right now.
 

Pompous Elitist

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This does not seem to be a joke. Whitmer looking on sulkily, slamming doors most likely.


 

balds

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This fall surge is going to be interesting...when and how high will it peak? I think even with no more restrictions the economy could get slammed hard again if ICU's start filling up like North Dakota is right now.
13 deaths today. Sweden last had that many on July 13. They have more than twice the population of MN. I can't even imagine how terrified they are of a fall surge.
 

howeda7

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This fall surge is going to be interesting...when and how high will it peak? I think even with no more restrictions the economy could get slammed hard again if ICU's start filling up like North Dakota is right now.
ND is now leading the country in total cases/capita. SD is #4. Wisconsin is closing in on the top 10.
 

GophersInIowa

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Like putting Covid positive folks in with high risk folks? Like in a skilled nursing facility?
Yeah that was incredibly stupid. Allowing the virus to spread as much as possible while thinking we can still protect the vulnerable would be even worse.
 

LesBolstad

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The Coronabros are now officially losing control. Thankfully.

1602945311167.png
 

Pompous Elitist

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This might have been reported in this thread already. I haven't kept up with it, for some time.

Anyway, on Oct 12, the Editor In Chief and the Executive Editor of JAMA (The Journal of the American Medical Association), published this editorial article.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771758
Excess Deaths and the Great Pandemic of 2020
Two new reports in JAMA provide updated estimates regarding the mortality associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the US. In a research letter by Woolf and colleagues, the authors update their analysis of the number of “excess” deaths in the US related to COVID-19 and other causes from March 1 through August 1, 2020.1,2 The authors report that during this 5-month period, a total of 1 336 561 deaths occurred in the US, an estimated 20% increase compared with the number of expected deaths, and representing 225 530 excess deaths.2 Approximately 67% of these excess deaths were attributable directly to COVID-19, whereas excess deaths attributed to other causes also could have been related to the pandemic in general.
...
The importance of the estimate by Woolf et al—which suggests that for the entirety of 2020, more than 400 000 excess deaths will occur—cannot be overstated, because it accounts for what could be declines in some causes of death, like motor vehicle crashes, but increases in others, like myocardial infarction. These deaths reflect a true measure of the human cost of the Great Pandemic of 2020. As depicted in the illustration, these deaths far exceed the number of US deaths from some armed conflicts, such as the Korean War and the Vietnam War, and deaths from the 2009 H1N1 (Swine flu) pandemic, and approach the number of deaths from World War II.

Poor comparison. Wars generally take the lives of young people in the prime of their lives, and oftentimes massive civilian non-combatant. They can also sometimes be avoided or mitigated. The editor assumes the scale of ultimate spread can be stopped without offering any workable strategy. They surely understand the difficulties with the logistics, efficacy of vaccine candidates thus far.

Lockdown advocates: “ we have to destroy the village in order to save the village”.
 

MplsGopher

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The Editors say no such thing. The word "lockdown" is not used once.

Reading what you want to read, as always.
 

Pompous Elitist

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A new study published October 13 in the journal Immunity - looked at antibody prevalence and long term production (with a handful of patients out to 5-7 months post infection). The study involved detecting antibodies that target three separate areas of the virus.

Previous studies looked at antibodies specific for one of these proteins (the N or nucleocapsid protein), and found that antibody levels fell to undetectable levels within a few months in many people with mild disease (up to 40%). This had raised the question as to whether long term antibody mediated immunity occurs with covid infection in all individuals - an important aspect for both infection induced immunity and vaccine induced immunity.

The study found that by looking at antibodies targeting 2 other viral proteins ("RBD" and "S" proteins), they were able to detect consistent and long term antibody production in individuals exposed to covid infection. Several individuals out to 5-7 months displayed stable antibody production. 5881/5882 individuals screened showed evidence of long term neutralizing antibodies, even those with mild disease!

They also provide evidence to consistent with the previous findings that immune response to N protein is transient in many individuals. So it's not that earlier papers were wrong in regards to long-term antibody mediated immunity (also called humoral immunity), they were just missing the set of antibodies that provide it. There is a lot of interesting info in here.

In summary, it would seem that long-term antibody production is induced by covid infection. These findings are in addition to previous findings that long term T-cell mediated immune responses can also occur with infection. Taken together this provides additional confidence that long term immunity to SARS-CoV-2 can be obtained by infection (and presumably vaccination). This is of course barring viral mutation causing antigenic escape (when the immune system loses its ability to detect an infection).

Consistent with the other coronaviruses. You may have already seen the article below. A nice synopsis of each vaccine approach, target protein, delivery vehicle, immunogenicity and requirement for booster. This was published before the recent AZ hold, which is a real tragedy as that is a single dose, logistics friendly, highly immunogenic viral vector. The other viral vectors (eg from Cansino) have the issue of preexisting population neutralizing antibodies particularly in the elderly, up to 40-55%.


 
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