The new Corona virus, should we worry?

Pompous Elitist

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Restrictions increase the amount of time it takes for the virus to infect X number of people. That's a mathematical fact.

You can pretend and hope that vaccine herd immunity is so far away that the delay achieved so far won't matter. That's what you want to happen.

But it isn't reality.
Of course restricting people to their homes restricts spread. What happens when they emerge? Or more realistically, what happens when they don’t comply?
 

MplsGopher

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As always, it's not binary. Never was.

A 1.3% delay is more than zero.


The delay that was banked in the spring, and still is more than zero over the summer and right now, will end up saving some greater than zero number of hospitalizations and lives when vaccine herd immunity starts being achieved in late 2020 and then through 2021.


Fools will then go about their fool's errand of trying to reason about how the dollars lost and the businesses shuttered, and other tangential externalities, weren't "worth" those savings.

Can't stop that from happening, and being publicized, nor can we stop people who want to believe that narrative from believing it.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Astra Zeneca vaccine trial still on hold bit rumored expected to resume in the US. If this occurs Exhibit A on why reasonable people will doubt the veracity of the oversight teams, regulators, and developers. Uptake will be low among low risk, young. Transverse myelitis was reported as the complication, and unlesss that was “fake news” is rare enough to not be a “coincidence”, ie onset weeks after a vaccine administration.


 

Pompous Elitist

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As always, it's not binary. Never was.

A 1.3% delay is more than zero.


The delay that was banked in the spring, and still is more than zero over the summer and right now, will end up saving some greater than zero number of hospitalizations and lives when vaccine herd immunity starts being achieved in late 2020 and then through 2021.


Fools will then go about their fool's errand of trying to reason about how the dollars lost and the businesses shuttered, and other tangential externalities, weren't "worth" those savings.

Can't stop that from happening, and being publicized, nor can we stop people who want to believe that narrative from believing it.
What about panic-induced delays in care, lack of care leading to adverse outcomes in cardiovascular disease, endocrine disease, cancer...mass psychological problems, psychogenic disease.

Poverty and lack of vaccination in third world areas leading to potential millions of deaths.

Nothing, I guess. Heckuva job. Try being honest, going forward.
 

MplsGopher

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What about panic-induced delays in care, lack of care leading to adverse outcomes in cardiovascular disease, endocrine disease, cancer...mass psychological problems, psychogenic disease.

Poverty and lack of vaccination in third world areas leading to potential millions of deaths.

Nothing, I guess. Heckuva job. Try being honest, going forward.
All that would've been the same regardless if there had been no restrictions. Most were afraid in the beginning. The economoic and health damage was done.
 

bga1

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This is a perfect illustration of why the lock downs were silly. People with virtually no chance of harm taken out of a job and isolated while people in danger of harm were not protected. We have excess deaths this year from Covid and from lockdown side effects. As soon as this is over, the inventory of sick old people who were going to die anyway will be diminished and we will see a compensation that reverses it. But the young people who died because of the lockdowns will still be dead. Tragic.
 

short ornery norwegian

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Turns out the State Dept of Health site that gives updated numbers for beds in use is only updated on weekdays. So we will have to wait until Monday to get an update on number of current patients who are hospitalized and in ICU for covid. Back to the cumulative totals for the weekend. And so it goes.


MN Covid-19 Update - Sat, Oct 10

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive cases 110,828 +1,537. (4.9% positive test rate)

Health-Care workers with positive cases 11,422 +138.

Cases no longer needing isolation 99,054 +1,339.

Active Cases 9,643 +167.

Deaths 2,131 +10.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 1,518 +5.

Patients Hospitalized-cumulative 8,302 +51.

Patients in ICU-cumulative 2,277 +10.

Total tests processed 2,288,662 +31,665.

Number of people tested 1,561,103 +17,761.
 

short ornery norwegian

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This is a perfect illustration of why the lock downs were silly. People with virtually no chance of harm taken out of a job and isolated while people in danger of harm were not protected. We have excess deaths this year from Covid and from lockdown side effects. As soon as this is over, the inventory of sick old people who were going to die anyway will be diminished and we will see a compensation that reverses it. But the young people who died because of the lockdowns will still be dead. Tragic.
Beeg - you may have a point here. BUT - when you say things like sick old people who were going to die anyway, you hurt your own argument because it makes you look like a bleep-hole who doesn't care if Grandma dies.

that allows the other side to criticize you - not because of what you're saying, but because of how you're saying it.

Oh, and BTW - the State Dept of Health says a recent rise in covid cases in nursing homes is due to employees bringing the virus into the facilities. so it's not Granny's fault that she got the covid - it's the fault of the nurse, the cook or the orderly who had the covid and came to work. Should those people be prosecuted for causing Granny's death?
 

Pompous Elitist

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Oh, and BTW - the State Dept of Health says a recent rise in covid cases in nursing homes is due to employees bringing the virus into the facilities. so it's not Granny's fault that she got the covid - it's the fault of the nurse, the cook or the orderly who had the covid and came to work. Should those people be prosecuted for causing Granny's death?
The training and PPE for these folks remains abysmal, as does the messaging for the general public. The general lack of work ethic in some, lack of attention to detail contributes. I wouldn’t put a loved one in a facility right now (or ever) if there is the ability to keep them at home.

I’m not sure what it’s like in MN but in CA it is awful, and misleading. The messaging seems to have switched to face coverings or cloth masks, when distancing is far more important. The messaging on consumer cloth masks has gotten way ahead of the science. It’s plausible they may help but we don't really know. If someone is in the vulnerable group OR one is around people in a household and you and their value your life then distance, and use a good quality n95+ mask, not a kn95 ear loop knockoff.
 

Spoofin

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As long as politicians and the media continue to focus on case count and “spikes” and “hot spots” we are guaranteed to fail. That is the point, however.
 

GophersInIowa

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Such as?

It's the only strategy that will work. The US is already well on our way down that path.
1. Over 50% of their households are made of one person compared to under 30% in the US.
2. US has significantly more large cities with high population density.
3. People seem to think Sweden has been normal this whole time (like before the pandemic) but that’s not the case. Their restrictions on large gatherings is much stricter than in the US. Church gatherings, fans at sporting events, concerts, campaign rallies, etc aren’t happening there. Their population also trusts their government more so they listen to the recommendations of their government significantly more.
4. Sweden has much better benefits for employees so people aren’t worried about taking time off when they’re not feeling well.
5. Their population is much healthier.
6. Much better healthcare system.

Culturally we are so different. Social trust and social cohesion are extremely important there. They work together there, look out for each other.
 

GophersInIowa

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As long as politicians and the media continue to focus on case count and “spikes” and “hot spots” we are guaranteed to fail. That is the point, however.
Good tracing and localized restrictions is the answer IMO. If we’re going to talk about Sweden, that’s one area that we could adapt pretty easily. For example, they currently have some increasing cases in parts of Stockholm so a hospital stopped doing elective procedures for a few weeks and they asked entire families to stay home for 10 days if anyone in their household had symptoms. Try putting out the flames in the hot spots.
 

Wally

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Astra Zeneca vaccine trial still on hold bit rumored expected to resume in the US. If this occurs Exhibit A on why reasonable people will doubt the veracity of the oversight teams, regulators, and developers. Uptake will be low among low risk, young. Transverse myelitis was reported as the complication, and unlesss that was “fake news” is rare enough to not be a “coincidence”, ie onset weeks after a vaccine administration.


I won't rush to get one or rush to get my kids vaccinated. If I was high risk it would definitely be worth the risk tho.
 

Wally

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Coming to a theater near you....

Friday
Missouri recorded just under 3,000 new cases, according to NBC News' tally. The state also set a new single-day record for deaths at 129.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Something has been bugging me: footage of Mr. Biden wearing his mask under his nose, talking at an outdoors podium. Have we completely gone off the rails on “the science”?
 

KillerGopherFan

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WHO says wants to avoid 'punishing' coronavirus lockdowns


(Reuters) - The World Health Organization's top emergencies expert said on Friday that authorities should try to avoid "punishing" lockdowns, as many countries see a sharp rise in the number of COVID-19 infections.

Mike Ryan was speaking at a briefing in Geneva, the day after the WHO reported a record one-day increase in global coronavirus cases, with the total rising by 338,779 in 24 hours led by a surge of infections in Europe.

"What we want to try to avoid - and sometimes it's unavoidable and we accept that - but what we want to try and avoid is these massive lockdowns that are so punishing to communities, to society and to everything else," he said.
 

MplsGopher

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There’s many, many reasons why that same strategy wouldn’t work in the US.
The main reason is, when you get to the 60-70% of population infected that you need, then you're probably at half a million dead, several hundreds of thousands more that had to be hospitalized.

We're "only" at 200k dead now. And by the time vaccine herd immunity starts ramping up, hopefully will continue to be at or under a quarter million dead.

Not really worth your time, in my opinion, bothering to argue with folks about if saving a quarter of million lives from direct virus-disease death is worth it. They'll try to drag you down with every tangential point that can be conjured up.
 

Wally

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The main reason is, when you get to the 60-70% of population infected that you need, then you're probably at half a million dead, several hundreds of thousands more that had to be hospitalized.

We're "only" at 200k dead now. And by the time vaccine herd immunity starts ramping up, hopefully will continue to be at or under a quarter million dead.

Not really worth your time, in my opinion, bothering to argue with folks about if saving a quarter of million lives from direct virus-disease death is worth it. They'll try to drag you down with every tangential point that can be conjured up.
Its coming, I would happy if we made it thru to herd immunity with 500,000 deaths. Its a pandemic people are gonna die...
 

Pompous Elitist

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The Europeans (like US) have blown their wad on paycheck replacement programs and other stimulus measures and bought themselves some time but the calculation now is how soon before a vaccine is realistically widely available, administered, received by a large percentage of young people, and most importantly actually effective. Is vaccine sterilizing immunity necessary or is a quickened, less severe infection course (yet still potentially presymptomatically infectious) still considered a “win”. Even more relevant - will people lock themselves down for another 6-12 months. When does politics and re-election come into play?

We can print money, but that may have unintended consequences at some point in time.

A better strategy is necessary. A new way to approach the problem and help the highest risk. It’s possible but will require a sea change in thought and spending, focused testing, PPE, training, financial incentives and sticks.
 

short ornery norwegian

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FWIW - number of "active" cases has increased by over 2,000 in the last four days.

MN Covid-19 Update(10-11-20).

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive Cases 112,268 +1,450. (positive test rate 4.9%)

Health-Care workers with positive cases 11,551 +129.

Cases no longer needing isolation 100,171 +1,117.

Active cases 9,956 +313.

Deaths 2,141 +10.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 1,521 +3.

Patients hospitalized-cumulative 8,334 +52.

Patients in ICU-cumulative 2,291 +14.

Total tests processed 2,318,810 +29,755.

Number of People tested 1,578,724 +17,621.


More info from the Strib on Sunday:

On Thursday, the state Department of Health unveiled a revamped dashboard for tracking COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU cases across Minnesota. The data showed that during a 15-day period ending Oct. 7, COVID-19 hospitalizations increased in Minnesota by more than one-third, said Pinar Karaca-Mandic, a health researcher at the Carlson School of Management at the U.

Factoring in cases reported Saturday, the seven-day average for new infections in Minnesota also hit a new high. In the past week, the state averaged about 1,149 new cases per day on a daily average of about 24,494 tests.
 

GophersInIowa

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I recommend reasonable people following the science check this out:

View attachment 9644
Some of the names that signed this: Dr. I.P. Freely, Dr. Person Fakename, Dr. Johnny Bananas. Anyone can sign it and they don’t verify anything.

They also don’t actually provide a plan or define exactly who the vulnerable population is.

 
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